Pats Top Washington Easily, 33-7

The Patriots pulled away in the second half for an easy victory in Washington, 33-7. Their 5-0 record keeps them atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the 4-1 Bills. Next up are the New York Giants, on a short week, this Thursday night in Foxboro.

Often there isn't much to learn from blowout wins. But there was today.

After the game, Tom Brady was understandably unhappy with the offensive performance in the first half. They came out throwing, and throwing, and throwing. Brady threw a personal high 31 passes in the first half, and the offensive imbalance led to neither a high completion percentage nor a great QB rating. He had one TD but also one INT in the first half.

And suddenly in the second half, it was all run all the time. They fed the ball to Sony Michel, James White, and even special teamer Brandin Bolden. After 7 rushing attempts in the first half, the Pats rushed 20 times after halftime.

What all this tells me is that they themselves don't know their offensive identity yet. They hoped to have Antonio Brown to stretch and challenge defenses, but that didn't work out. Then they wanted to be a run-first team, but their starting center, left guard, and blocking back all got injured.

They lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and they've gotten very little production out of the tight end position. And I think they used this game as a test run; to see what they have in the different phases. (Or maybe they tried testing the passing game first, but when the game was only 12-7 at they half they decided to win it.)

Additionally, the offensive line is having trouble protecting Brady. But that doesn't excuse his two horrendous red-zone interceptions the past two weeks. Take the sack or throw it away, TB12, but don't give the ball away when points are on the line.

At the moment they'd be lost without Julian Edelman. He wasn't perfect on Sunday, but his 8 catches (110 yards and 1 TD) five first downs (one by penalty -- a big 40-yarder) were crucial. It's no surprise they won recent Super Bowls without Gronkowski but not without Edelman; he is the indispensable cog in the machine.

Over the next few weeks it'll be interesting to see who steps up at receiver. Everyone knows Edelman, White, and Gordon are there; but who will make the big catches when those guys are covered? If I had to guess, it would be Ryan Izzo or Jacobi Meyers. But at this point, it's still a guess.

On defense, they caused two more turnovers; an interception by Jason McCourty and a fumble recovery by Jamie Collins. But there wasn't much to learn on defense yesterday; we already knew they were great. However, it's starting to look like they could be historically great.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens hold the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season, and the Patriots are ahead of their pace. The Ravens gave up 10.3 points per game; the Patriots so far have given up 6.8 points per game. And after five games, the Ravens had given up 55 points, while the Pats have given up just 34.

Now the Patriots still have to face the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and those same Ravens. Those are some potent offenses. However, they also face the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills again, who mustered 10 total points against the defense (the Jets got 14 on defense and special teams). But it's interesting to note where this defense stands historically at the moment.

The kicking game is shaky though. Stephen Gostkowki's replacement, Mike Nugent, pushed an extra point wide, and then hit the upright on another one that ended up going through. The Patriots also eschewed the field goal after the first PAT miss, opting to go for it instead on fourth-and-one. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the kicker. If they haven't sorted this out in a few weeks, expect them to bring in another kicker for competition.

On the other hand, the punting has been excellent, and the team has been validated for letting go of longtime punter Ryan Allen. Jake Bailey is tied for the second-most punts downed inside the 20 yard-line (12 of them). And he hits them out of bounds often, neutralizing the other teams return game.

No commentary on the coaching except this little tidbit: apparently Bill Belichick himself is calling the defensive signals. Apparently he wasn't happy with how that went in the preseason, with Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick sharing that duty. So he took it over.

Where does that leave us? 5-0 is good for now, and the schedule doesn't really start to get tough for another few weeks. Hopefully the hamstring injury to Phillip Dorsett doesn't keep him out for long.

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of targets in the red zone. The Pats really struggled when they got deep in the red zone. They used to have Gronkowski and Edelman, both of whom demanded double-coverage. But without Gronk, the rest of the field isn't quite as open as it used to be.

Non-Brady MVP: Dont'a Hightower. Led the team in tackles (8), sacks (1.5 for 10.5 yards), tackles for a loss (4), QB pressures (2), and even threw in a pass defended. That would probably make him the non-QB MVP in almost any game this year!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots lead the league in sacks with 24, putting them on a pace for 77 on the season, which would break the NFL record. (Trivia: which team set that record? Answer below.)

The reason it's an oddity -- the Patriots have never led the league in sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Not. One. Damned. Year!

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Nice to get a win, but it'll be weeks before we learn much about the team."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The 1984 Chicago Bears set the record with 72 sacks in 1984. The next year, they won the Super Bowl, over the upstarts from Foxboro :(

Patriots Hold Off Bills, 16-10

The Pats scurried out of town with a 6-point win Sunday, topping the Bills 16-10 in Buffalo. The win puts them at 4-0, a game up on the now 3-1 Bills. Next up is a date with Washington, who might have a worse quarterback than Buffalo. (I know, hard to believe.)

You've no doubt read all about it, given that the update is late. Here are some quick thoughts, and some overarching themes for the team.

The Offense

The Patriots offense struggled on Sunday, and it was mostly due to Bills head coach Sean McDermott. His defenses have given Tom Brady trouble since he was in Carolina. In two games against the Bills last year, Brady had 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, and two of his worst four QB ratings of the year. But it isn't Brady that worries me; his struggles against that defense are understandable.

It's the running game that is of most concern. It has been inconsistent at best, for three main reasons.

First, fullback James Develin is on IR for at least eight weeks, and maybe more. His blocking can't be replaced easily. And when teams tried to avoid contact with Develin, he was an actual pass-catching threat out of the backfield. No doubt the next man up won't be a dual threat.

Second, the offensive line is in flux. They lost left tackle Isiah Wynn to IR, too. And that change, coupled with the preseason loss of center David Andrews seems to have put the line in a funk. Coach Dante Scarnecchia will likely get this worked out by mid-season. But for now, things aren't clicking like they usually would.

And third, Sony Michel is hampering things because he apparently can't get involved in the passing game. So when he comes in the game, the other team knows he will either run it or stay in to block. He had just seven catches last year, but zero so far in 2019. The opposition simply doesn't worry about him catching a pass.

(Also of note in the running game, the Pats seem to want to keep feeding Michel the ball. Even though both James White and Rex Burkhead can run or catch passes, and give them a lot more flexibility.)

As to the passing game, it was poor versus the Bills for some of the reasons mentioned above. They do need more weapons, and I suspect the return of Ben Watson this week and continued growth for Jacobi Meyers will help there.

The Defense

The Patriots D is scary good this year. They've given up 13 points in four games (14 were scored against the offense and on special teams). Even with the offensive and special teams miscues, they are on pace to give up 108 points -- which would be the lowest total in a 16-game season by a wide margin. The current record is 165 points. (Trivia: name the team and the year that pulled that off. Answer below.)

The media finally caught up to my blog in noting how great the Patriots D was in the first half of games last year. And since they seem confused by how they improved their second-half defense this year, I'll save them the work of looking at film and everything and just give them the answer: it's the players.

Last year, they had okay players but came into games with consistently great gameplans. But once good teams got a look at their plans, they could usually adjust and then score in the second half. (Best example is the Chiefs, who scored 9 total points in two first-halves, and then scored 62 in two combined second-halves.)

The Pats always had the schemes, and last year had a great play-caller in Brian Flores. But this year, they added veterans Michael Bennett and Jamie Collins, got Ja'Whaun Bentley back from injury, and brought in rookie Chase Winovich. They also have Jonathan Jones, top-rated corner in the game, shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore, and JC Jackson and Jason McCourty playing great.

They team has so much depth that linebackers captain Elandon Roberts can't even get on the field. He's been on the field for just 61 of 258 defensive snaps; 23.6%.

In case you can't tell, I have no concerns about the D. Sure they haven't played great teams yet, but holding the Steelers to 3 points with Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup sold me. They have a chance to be historically great.

Special Teams

Remember in the preseason primer, when I noted the Patriots lost their best special-teams coverage guy in Brandon King (link). If so, maybe you recall Matthew Slater taking two dumb "run out of bounds and stay there" penalties trying to make up for King's absence. And if you realized that, then you probably took notice of the re-signing of long-time Patriots special teamer Jordan Richards this week.

The coverage has been okay so far. They clearly miss King, though his trip to IR barely drew any attention. The new punter sometimes outkicks his coverage. That's only a problem if the boot doesn't land out of bounds, but that does happen sometimes. And Slater is working too hard to make up for King -- sometimes to his detriment.

Slater needed help in coverage. Maybe Richards can provide that.

As for the rest of special teams, the big story is the team placing kicker Stephen Gostkowski on injured reserve. He's likely done for the year; reports are he'll get season-ending hip surgery.

His replacement is in already. And he can't do much worst than Gostkowski through the first four games. But he should do better -- after all, Gostkowski was injured!

Coaching

So far, whomever is calling the defensive plays has proven to be an excellent replacement for Flores. Bill Belichick gets a lot of credit for the Pats D (and well he should). But as we saw with the difference between Matt Patricia (gave up 41 points to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII) and Flores (gave up 3 to the Rams in Super Bowl LIII), the defensive coordinator makes a real difference.

My only gripe with the coaching was their clock mismanagement at the end of the Bills game. In a game where they had trouble throwing the ball, it made no sense to attempt passes when Buffalo had no timeouts and their offense had been putrid all day.

The game was a one-score affair. And in fact, if the Bills had somehow scored a TD, they could have won it with an extra point. So rather than "go for the kill" with two passes, the Pats should have run the ball and take the clock to the 2:00 warning. After punting it back to Buffalo, they likely would have had to go 80+ yards with zero timeouts in about 1:50. And their offense was awful (and down to it's second-string QB).

Just a little thing. The game worked out anyway, but for future reference, don't pull an Atlanta and lose a game doing it.

Where does that leave us? 4-0 is pretty good after 4 weeks, so enjoy it. The Pats still rank near the top of all the power rankings around, and the offense should play better as the O-line gels and the younger receivers and Ben Watson work their way in. Washington is the next sacrificial lamb for the Pats; plan to relax for the second half this Sunday :D

Biggest on-going issue: For the moment it's the field goal kicking. It might not risk costing them a game for a while, but eventually they'll be depending on an unproven kicker in a big spot. Keep your fingers crossed.

Non-Brady MVP: Kyle Van Noy, who led the team in tackles (8), had two sacks (for 17 yards lost), three QB hits, and two forced fumbles.

Statistical Oddity: Devin McCourty tied the NFL record with an interception in four straight games. (Trivia: this record was originally set by another Patriots player, can you name him? Answer below.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why not just cancel the rest of the AFC season and redo last year's AFC Championship game with the Chiefs right now?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-0!

PPS. Trivia answers:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
#1: the 2000 Baltimore Ravens set the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season (165).

#2 McCourty and Mike Haynes are the only two players to intercept at least one pass in four consecutive games. McCourty goes for five on Sunday!

Patriots Beat Back Washington, 27-10

The Patriots defense dominated again, holding Washington to ten points in a 27-10 victory yesterday. The win keeps the team undefeated at the halfway point, still three games ahead of the Jets for the AFC East lead. Next up is the PITA New York Giants, in the Meadowlands.

The game was another dominant performance by the Patriots defense. The final score should have been 27-3, but for a garbage-time touchdown allowed. They are a half-point behind Denver for the league lead in points allowed (17.9 to 17.4), are seventh in defensive passer rating (83.1), and have given up only two plays of 40+ yards the entire season (3rd in the NFL).

The secondary gave up some big third downs in the first half, but buckled down to shut that down in the final 30 minutes. Logan Ryan got picked on and responded with 6 tackles, 2 passes knocked down, and a gift interception. Malcolm Butler might not be a shutdown corner against the league's best, but he was good enough to hold down the receivers he matched up with yesterday, ending up with 5 tackles and a pass defended himself.

Safety play was a problem two years ago; now the Patriots have a great group of three safeties. The surprise of the group is Patrick Chung, who was better in his return last year and is twice as good this year. His run-stuffing abilities and pass coverage in short zones were both crucial yesterday.

The linebacking corps was down Jamie Collins and it showed. Dont'a Hightower was double-teamed often and that left more work for Jonathan Freeney, who ended up with 4 tackles and a forced fumble. Fortunately Collins' situation was an illness, not an injury. Because longtime starter Jerod Mayo just can't seem to get on the field, and they have very little depth at this position.

It is increasingly difficult to single out defensive linemen because the Patriots rotate so many of them. Chandler Jones got another sack yesterday (and has a league-leading 9.5 for the season), but both he and Rob Ninkovich had trouble holding the edge against the run. This owes partly to not having Collins around to take up more blockers, so here's hoping he comes back soon.

And even though the stat sheet doesn't show it, I thought interior lineman Alan Branch did a nice job clogging the middle and making big plays at key junctures. One example was when Washington was threatening to make it a one-score game in the third quarter, Branch stripped the ball out and it was recovered by Ninkovich. Branch plays every down with high energy, and has slid nicely into the role once held by Vince Wilfork.

On offense it was a heavy dose of running back LeGarrette Blount. He rumbled over and through the Washington defense, gashing it occasionally through the middle and outside, and ending the game with 129 yards on 29 carries and 1 touchdown. Dion Lewis caught 4 passes for 39 yards, had two nice runs, made a terrible decision on an 11-yard loss, and suffered a knee injury in the third quarter. In Lewis' absence, Brandon Bolden came in for an 18-yard touchdown catch that essentially ended the game. If Lewis can't come back soon, expect James White to step into the third-down back role.

Quarterback Tom Brady was off on several throws early (might have been the wind). And unfortunately, the one throw that was right on the money was into the arms of a Washington defender, for Brady's second interception of the season. He settled down after that play, and ended up 26 of 39 for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, and the 1 INT. His quick release frustrated the defense all day, and they ended up with just 1 QB hit and zero sacks.

Among receivers, Brandon LaFell has the biggest day: 5 catches for 102 yards. He was so wide open on one play that he waited under the under-thrown ball like it was a punt, and the Washington defenders still couldn't catch up to him. Julian Edelman (5 for 55) caught a touchdown, but also fumbled. And Rob Gronkowski actually converted the tough first downs this week.

The best news on the receivers was the distribution: six players with 3+ catches. That's good news, as a multi-headed passing attack is much more difficult to defend.

The Patriots offensive line suffered yet another injury, losing tackle Sebastian Vollmer to a reported concussion. The good news is that starter Bryan Stork returned, and the reviews were decent. Shaq Mason continued his dominant run blocking, but even though Brady was kept clean, the line is showing some issues with outside pass pressure. Might be time to play two tight ends nearer the ball to help with protection.

On special teams, kicker Stephen Gostkowski executed a decent onside kick, which the Patriots recovered. They obviously saw something on film and decided to try it in a live game, because the Pats most definitely didn't need trickery to win this game. Also, Matthew Slater is actually underrated at his job, even though he's been the Pro Bowl as a special teamer. He might go down as the best kick and punt coverage player in NFL history.

So where does that leave us? Well, you can't do much better than 8-0 after eight games, so looking pretty good. The Giants always give the Pats trouble, and they actually lead the NFC East at this point. I suspect the coaching staff would like to paste the Giants, but they need to focus on getting the win and improving their linebacker and offensive line play.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: For all you hear about the Patriots offense, they are the only team with a winning record that has held two opponents under 10 points this season (Trivia Question: name the two teams they held to single digits, answer below). Note: they would have had a third such game yesterday except for a garbage-time touchdown.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: At the halfway point of the season, Chandler Jones leads the NFL in sacks. No Patriots player has ever led the NFL in that category during any single season.

Non-Brady MVP: Going out on a limb, I'm choosing Alan Branch, though it's more of a season-long award this time. He's the unsung anchor of the D-line, hardly making a dent on the stat sheet but always impacting the game. With players switching in and out by the play, Branch is the most productive of the interior defensive linemen so far this year. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Last year's tough stretch was six games and five dangerous QBs. This year it's the next three games, and one dangerous QB named Manning. And it isn't Peyton :)"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Patriots held the Dolphins to 7 points and the Cowboys to 6 points earlier this year.

Patriots Skin Washington, 34-27

The Patriots survived another close one but came out on top of Washington, 34-27. The win kept them two games ahead of the Jets in the AFC East and one win (or a Jets loss) from claiming another division crown. (Note: I misinformed you last week -- the Patriots did not clinch the AFC East title with their win. My apologies.) Up next is a match with Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Denver, which if you ask the six teams he's beaten will be no easy task.

Yesterday's game in Washington was back and forth, and featured more scoring by Mike Shanahan's charges than many expected. But after three quarters of high-powered offense, the teams went 0-for the fourth quarter and traded red zone interceptions to effectively end the game. Tom Brady giveth, and Jerod Mayo taketh away, and the Patriots escaped with their fifth consecutive win.

One Patriots player was a microcosm of the entire Patriots defense, as that unit played almost exactly the way corner Devin McCourty did as an individual. Both gave up too many big gains in the passing game. Both stuffed the inside run but lost contain and missed assignments on outside rushes and misdirection/trick plays. And both took bad drops and angles that gave Washington too much room in zone coverage. But in the end both McCourty and the defense made big plays at critical times to stop drives and force turnovers or punts.

McCourty allowed three big plays to former Patriots receivers Donte Stallworth (51 and 23 yards) and Jabar Gaffney (23 yards). But he also notched three passes defended and eight tackles on the day, including plays that forced punts on two of the last three Washington drives. The Patriots need to see more of the latter from McCourty as they drive toward the playoffs.

His secondary mates didn't fare very well at all. Safety James Ihedigbo blew coverage on two touchdowns (one trick play, one "pick" play), and Kyle Arrington had six tackles but did little to stop passes from being completed. As a unit, they gave up 15.1 yards a catch, a number that usually loses you the game. It is probably enough to say that wide receiver Julian Edelman had the second best coverage on the day, and that the only non-McCourty pass knock-downs were by linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Tracy White).

Speaking of linebackers, they are just barely holding that unit together. Mayo is fine now, looking fully recovered from his injury. He followed-up his first career interception last week with his second yesterday -- a game-saving INT as Washington was driving for a tying score. He topped the team with eight tackles and even got some pressure on the quarterback.

Rob Ninkovich is okay, but seems overmatched in pass coverage and trying to hold the edge against the run. It was nice to see Dane Fletcher back, but they really need Brandon Spikes to return. He isn't great, but he gives the unit an intangible stability and attitude. The press overblows how well Spikes plays, but whenever he's out there, Mayo plays better and they seem to cover the mid-level passing game a lot more effectively.

Along the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love (in concert with Mayo, McCourty, and Fletcher) did a really nice job clogging up runs through the middle. The problems came with the classic Shanahan "stretch play" around end. Andre Carter and Mark Anderson were forced past the quarterback and neutralized by the stretch play too often.

Carter did come up with an important forced fumble (recovered by Wilfork for his first career touchdown). But if the Patriots don't want to get run over next week, they will have to do better forcing the run back inside. Note: both Brandon Deaderick and Shawn Ellis did fine in spot duty; though the team probably expected more from Ellis this season.

The offense called 40 pass plays and just 18 rushes. In one way it made sense; they averaged 16.2 yards a catch for the game. But in another way it made no sense at all. Tom Brady and his receivers (Deion Branch and Wes Welker specifically) had communication problems early in the game. And Brady missed a wide open Danny Woodhead on an easy check-down -- all of which left him under 50% completions at the half.

The passing attack eventually got in sync, and combined with the no-huddle, the pace was lightning fast (average scoring drive was just 2:53). Tom Brady's stats were wonderful as usual (22 of 37 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But the one interception was crucial, as the Patriots could have iced the game with a field goal and only needed to avoid that turnover. I heard he had words with the offensive coordinator after that; maybe there's a news story posted somewhere about that.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to be the Chuck Norris of Patriots receivers, an unstoppable force that appears to dominate effortlessly. He had 6 catches for 160 yards and grabbed 2 touchdown passes for the sixth time this year, which leads the entire NFL (trivia question: name the player in second place with four such games this season, answer below). Welker was his usual indispensable self (7-86, 1 touchdown).

The other tight end, Aaron Hernandez, diversified the passing game with 5 for 84. And Chad Ochocinco got his requisite one catch (for an important first down), and that was about it for the passing game. Still a little too dependent on a few receivers, but very effective yesterday.

And you can't have an effective passing game without at least good offensive line play. Which is what the Patriots got, good O-line play, not great, not bad, just good. The O-line allowed a little too much pressure (1 sack, 6 quarterback hits) and didn't open up many rushing lanes (except for Woodhead's shotgun runs). They do have the injury excuse; they had only seven offensive linemen active for the game, including rookies Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder (who started).

The running game isn't really worth mentioning; so I'll be brief. Danny Woodhead worked well out of the shotgun (8 rushes for 41 yards), but you know you can't run when you bring in 35 year-old Kevin Faulk to give the running attack a shot in the arm. And no matter what they think, the Patriots can't line up in a power formation and run the ball against any decent defense. So they should probably stop trying -- deception works much better for them. 

Special teams contributed a huge play early when Zoltan Mesko booted a punt that was downed inside the five yard-line by Matthew Slater. That turned into a fumble in the end zone and a New England touchdown; which is big in a game you win by seven points. Other than that, Julian Edelman had a nice punt return, and the kickoffs were plenty deep enough. But most of the field goals were easily make-able, so nothing special there.

In the battle of coaching wits, it appeared that Mike Shanahan won this round. He always gives Belichick a tough game, and if he had better talent (you know, better than a 4-9 record would indicate), he might have pulled this one out. And there was the argument on the sideline, something between a well-known quarterback and an unknown offensive coordinator. Not sure the details, but I'll have to check into it. 

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and one game from an AFC East crown, that's where! The game next week is interesting, because the Patriots excel at beating teams with one-dimensional offenses, which is mostly what the Denver Broncos have. However, the game against Washington showed the Pats defense is vulnerable to outside runs, which his where the Broncos excel. An intriguing one for sure -- especially when you consider how badly the Patriots have played in Denver over the years.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Kansas City Chiefs versus the AFC East this year: 0-4 and outscored 141-23. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "How bad is the Pats secondary? Two linebackers and a defensive lineman are tied for second on the team with 2 interceptions each. That's pretty bad." (Trivia question #2: name those players, answer below.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

PPS. Trivia Answers:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

Answer #1: Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions started the season with four consecutive games with two touchdown catches (and he has no such games since then).

Answer #2: Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo are tied for the second-most interceptions on the Patriots.

Patriots Pre-season Preview 2011

Welcome back after a long off-season, full of the kind of drama that only billionaires-versus-millionaires can produce.  Thank goodness *that* is over.

As is my tradition, here are four reasons to bother watching Patriots pre-season games -- hell knows just about *everyone* needs a reason, because the games themselves are pretty lame. 

(Note: as with all pre-season games, most important it to avoid injuries.  But here are other things to look for.)

Reason #1: Prince Albert and the Revamped Defense

For a decade, the Patriots built teams with discipline on the defensive line and linebackers with the speed and strength to destroy plays from the outside. But it’s been a long time since they found a free agent outside linebacker who fit that system (Mike Vrabel). So the Patriots seem to have changed philosophy a bit.

They brought in pocket-crushing defensive linemen Albert Haynesworth (via trade from Washington) and Shaun Ellis (free agent from the New York Jets). Combine those newcomers with Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and opponents face three linemen who at their best demand double-teams. So the Patriots will either disrupt the pocket up the middle or, if teams double-up inside, they will attack with speed from the outside.

Haynesworth’s attitude will be his biggest challenge. He was downright destructive to Mike Shannahan's locker room, undermining the head coach at every turn. Unsurprisingly, he claims to have turned over a new leaf; but only time will tell. During the pre-season, watch Haynesworth (#92) carefully -- does he move the pocket toward the quarterback, can he get off blocks to tackle running backs at the line, will he quit on plays that are run away from him.

Reason #2: Avoiding the Sophomore Slump

Rookies played a huge role in the 2010 Patriots surprise 14-2 record. Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez (16 touchdowns combined) and third-down back Danny Woodhead brought toughness and speed to the offense. And Defensive Rookie of the Year runner-up, corner back Devin McCourty solidified a defensive backfield that lacked any reliable corners after an injury knocked out starter Leigh Bodden for the season.

The downside of getting great production out of rookies is that second-year players have struggled with the Patriots under Bill Belichick. Offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer and wide receiver Julian Edelman were surprise contributors in 2009, but both slipped in 2010 (especially Edelman). Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo got injured and was not the same player his second year. Even quarterback Tom Brady himself suffered his worst season as a pro in his second year as a starter.

Gronkowski and McCourty are key to keeping the Patriots train rolling. Only Gronkowski brings the entire package at tight end -- he can run and pass block and he punishes secondaries and creates mismatches in passing game. And even though the Patriots added some secondary talent, by the end of last year McCourty achieved legitimate shutdown status. And the entire secondary has struggled in the past when they lacked that one trusted corner.

In the pre-season, watch how Gronkowski does in the red zone, how often Brady targets him for touchdowns, and track how much the big tight end battles for balls thrown his way. And keep an eye on how often McCourty gets beaten, how many tackles he makes in the running game (he was excellent at that in 2010), and also whether or not you see secondary players blaming each other for communication breakdowns.

Reason #3: Return of the Wounded

2011 will see the return of three key players from major injuries. Bodden’s shoulder injury should not affect his speed, though it’s possible his conditioning was lax during the lockout. In the pre-season, note how often he attacks receivers at the line of scrimmage, something he wouldn’t feel comfortable doing if his shoulder wasn’t fully healed or if he was worried a lack of speed might get him beaten deep.

The injury to kicker Stephen Gostkowski got little play as a factor since the Patriots continued winning. But Gostkowski was a real weapon, ranking second in touchback percentage (35.7%) and hitting 10 of 13 field goals before the injury. This pre-season, look for the distance on kickoffs; with kickoffs moved to the 35 yard line, almost every Gostkowski boot should be in the end zone (or so high the return ends up inside the 20).

Kevin Faulk’s knee injury originally sent panic through Patriots Nation, but the emergence of Woodhead softened the blow. Even so, Faulk’s knowledge of the offense and clear size advantage over Woodhead make the veteran’s return that much more important. Faulk won’t get that many snaps in the pre-season, but when he does, watch him in pass protection -- if he dives for the knees of defenders or shies away from full-on hits, he might not be all the way back.

Reason #4: Deep Threats

For all the fanfare of the defensive additions and anticipation of watching wide receiver Chad Ochocinco on the same team with Brady, the Patriots lack any legitimate deep threat on offense. No disrepect intended to young receivers Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, but tight end Hernandez is more of a threat to catch a long pass. To add to the problem almost all the speedy free agent wide receivers have been snatched up by other teams.

The pre-season games will be telling on this issue. If Brady and/or his backup target either Tate or Price multiple times, then the team must believe that player represents their best deep threat. But if they don’t bother going deep, then the offense will be more of the move-the-chains type that was successful last year, even after their only deep threat, Randy Moss, was traded to the Minnesota Vikings.

Summary:

I hope this helps you get through the next month of pre-season games. It can be tough to slog through four quarters when the games don’t count and your favorite players are on the sideline. But careful attention can tease out insights about how the regular season might unfold.

Last year, most of the media predicted the Patriots would go 8-8 or 9-7. I predicted 12-4, partially because of what Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, and Tom Brady showed in the pre-season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In 8 years of blogging, this is my first double-posted message (it was also posted on FootballNation.com).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Haynesworth just redid his contract, so if he stinks, they can cut him during the year and still not affect the salary cap."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  0-0!

McNabb deal validates Seymour trade

Hi all,

In case you didn't hear, six-time Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb was traded from Philadelphia to Washington.  Washington sent a second-round pick (37th overall) in the 2010 draft and a conditional pick in the 2011 draft to Philly, ending the most successful era in Eagles' football to date.

A non-reported aspect of the trade is that it completely validates the Patriots trade of five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Richard Seymour last year.  The Pats got a first-round pick from Oakland, a team headed for another double-digit loss season, and thus the pick should be in the top 10 of the 2011 draft.

Not only did the Patriots get a lot more for Seymour, but at this point in his career he wasn't nearly the impact player McNabb is.  Richard was at least three years removed from his dominating self, and the last time he was the Patriots best defensive lineman was in 2005.  Before he was injured that year, Seymour was headed for the Hall of Fame; post-injury he was probably just one of the best 75 or so D-linemen in the league -- not bad, but not great.

On the other hand, McNabb has the lowest interception ratio on NFL history, is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, and he will be a significant upgrade for Washington at the most important position on the field.  In 2009, the pathetic D.C. entry threw 16 interceptions, with overmatched starter Jason Campbell tossing 15 of them.  In contrast, McNabb hasn't thrown more than 11 picks in any season for a decade.  That's 10 years of superior play replacing a QB who got worse every year.

And since quarterback is (or make that was) one of Washington's areas of greatest need, they are bound to improve from their 4-12 2009 campaign.  It didn't exactly work out that way with Seymour in Oakland -- the 2008 Raiders went 5-11 without Seymour; the 2009 Raiders went 5-11 with him.  With McNabb's pinpoint accuracy, proven skills, and veteran leadership, Washington should at least double their 4-win total from last season, and could even contend for a playoff spot.

Given all that, when Al Davis offered a top-10 pick for an aging defensive lineman who was on the downside of a stellar career, the Patriots would have been remiss not to take the deal.  It would have been different if they were contenders for a Super Bowl last year.  But with 5 new defensive starters and a QB coming back from major knee reconstruction, that was very unlikely.  In fact, their 33-14 playoff drubbing at the hands of the Ravens showed that they were never going to make a deep playoff run in 2009.

So what does all this prove?  That the local media likes to bleat about what a mistake it was to trade Seymour, but in reality it turned out to be a great move.  In fact, if Bill Belichick wasn't such a polarizing figure, the media would be calling the move Auerbach-like, which is the highest praise any local executive can receive.  Instead, it served their purpose to deride the Patriots for "giving up on the season."  They should have been doing is deriding Al Davis for offering too much, all the while acknowledging that the Patriots got the best of a rival -- yet again.

- Scott

Patriots 52, Washington 7 (10/28/2007)

That subject is not, I repeat *not*, a misprint. Your New England Patriots are rolling through the NFL like a road grader, mashing every opponent under their wheels as they plow toward this Sunday's "date with destiny" against the Indianapolis Colts. (Note: there just isn't any pretty way to describe what the Pats did to Washington. In fact, I thought of five other descriptions, none of which are printable in a semi-family email.) 52-7 was one of the Pats largest margins of victory ever, and it helped them keep pace atop the NFL and maintain their 4.5. game lead in the AFC East. The loss... well, it dropped Washington a lot further than one more game behind. They've got a *lot* of work to do over there, especially on offense.

The Patriots O-line performed very well again, allowing few pressures and only one QB sack (that resulted in a fumble). The team rushed for 152 yards and a 4.3 yard average, with Laurence Maroney obviously on the mend (14 carries for 75 yards) and Kevin Faulk pitching in (5 for 32 yards) while the game was still in doubt. Some of the holes were just huge, and Maroney hit them well -- no tippy-toeing or dancing, he just took the handoff and went right to work. In fact, the running game was so successful, Tom Brady got into the act with two touchdown runs (and even backup QB Matt Cassel had a running TD).

The passing game totally kicked butt again. Brady went 29 of 38 (76%) for 306 yards and a measly 3 touchdowns (and no interceptions -- that's 30 TDs and 2 INTs on the year). This week's attack was was less of the long-bomb passing and more of the precision short game we're more accustomed to, with Wes Welker (9 catches for 89 yards) and Kevin Faulk (5 for 32 yards, and some nice first-down conversions) doing most of the damage. Combine the excellent O-line play and Brady's pinpoint accuracy with a Washington team intent on not getting beaten deep, and it was pitch-and-catch all day underneath. Even deep threats Donte Stallworth (4 for 44 yards), Jabar Gaffney (4 for 39 yards), and Randy Moss (3 for 47 yards and a nice push-off touchdown) played well in the short game. Overall, the most efficient and balanced offense I've seen all year.

On defense, everyone played at a high level, but Mike Vrabel stood above them all. 13 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles (one of which was returned for a touchdown by Rosevelt Colvin). He was just a monster, playing perhaps his best game in a year and consistently breaking down the right side of the offensive line. Aside from Vrabel, there just wasn't much to distinguish the rest of the defense. It wasn't the front three or the front seven this week; it was the entire front 11. The line made sure there was no running game and no timing for passes, the linebackers made sure the short gains stayed short, and the secondary had some nice passes defensed (and Asante Samuel got his fourth INT of the year). But most of all, the defense played cohesively to break down the timing and rhythm of the offense. And they played well enough to take a shutout into the fourth quarter (Washington finally scored with 3:07 left in the game).

Special teams were fine and dandy. Stephen Gostkowski hit his one field goal (and seven extra points) and had two more kickoff touchbacks. And Mike Vrabel (there's that name again) recovered Washington's desperation onsides kick. But overall, the special teams did a nice job of kick coverage and didn't break anything on kick returns. A good effort, but nothing special.

So where does that leave us? At Indy, of course. It's 8-0 vs. 7-0 for the first time in NFL history. The Colts present problems, to be sure, and I'll be interested to see how the Patriots additional talent and obvious chip on their shoulder (from last year's playoff loss) play out. Marvin Harrison has seen very limited action for the past four weeks, and the Colts have had a tough schedule recently (which the Patriots have not). The Dallas game was supposed to measure how good the Patriots were, but this game will measure which of these two titans is the best at mid-season. It's in Indy, which makes it tougher; but let's just say I hope to avoid putting a number 1 to my "PS." this week. Enjoy the game!

Statistical Oddity of the Week #1: Mike Vrabel might be the first NFL player in decades to record three forced fumbles and a touchdown reception in the same game. That probably hasn't happened since they switched to having different players on offense and defense.

Statistical Oddity of the Week #2: The Patriots have now played 32 quarters of football this season, and they have scored in 30 of them (94%).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Which do you think we'll see more of on Sunday: Patriots points or Peyton Manning commercials?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-0!

Patriots 17, Washington 20 (9/28/2003)

Well, the injury list is longer than the list of records broken by the Red Sox this year, and most all of the off-season free-agent signings have been neutralized by injury, but the Pats played a gutty game against Washington. And despite what you might read or hear, I think they fell short for two reasons:

1. They lost the turn-over battle. Tom Brady gets the blame for two intercepted passes he never should have thrown, and Washington made a great play on the third. And Kevin Faulk's fumble was devastating because it basically gave the bad guys a free TD in a game decided by 3 points. The other side of this coin is that they didn't force any turn-overs. There was a Washington fumble that bounded down the field with Patriots on all sides, but they couldn't quite get to it, and mid-way through the fourth quarter, Ramsey threw it right at two Patriot defenders, but neither could come up with it.

2. They never got Washington out of their comfort zone (this is related to the turn-over factor). Since our boys were never ahead in the game, Steve Spurrier never had to take any risks. And I would love to have watched him sweat it out as his second-year QB tried dangerous throws against the confusing and talented Patriots defense. But it never happened because the Pats had turn-overs instead of touchdowns, and Washington never had to take those risks. So, while the idiots on Sports Radio argue about the last-minute play-calling or ignore the Pats in favor of the playoff-bound Red Sox, trust me when I say they didn't lose because of the last drive. They lost it a little bit at a time all game long. And the outlook for next week is bleak right now, but I need to study up on Tennessee's general tendencies, look at their schedule, and check both team's injury reports before getting into it.

On the positive side:

1. I thought the Patriots ran the ball better yesterday. In fact, I'd like to see them go more two tight-end and smashmouth it to take some of the pressure of an already-injured Tom Brady. The offensive line has impressed me, especially with all the injuries and new players.

2. I liked the production out of Daniel Graham, although they should never have him pass-protecting without help -- the Washington linebackers made him look foolish a couple of times.

3. Even though David Givens caught a TD, he missed too many other assignments to call his game a good one. He missed a block on a wide-receiver screen that wasn't easy to miss, and he should have found a way to knock down Brady's second interception.

4. Man, do I like Asante Samuel's game. He's tight on the receivers, hits hard, and avoids the big mistakes and big penalties.

And the ultimate good news is they're tied for second place, a half-game behind Miami -- and it looks like that vaunted Buffalo defense might have been a two-week wonder. It should be a battle royale down to the wire.

Keep the faith,

- Scott