Monday, October 31, 2011

Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

It was bound to happen eventually, and yesterday it did -- he Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to beat Tom Brady.  The Steelers notched a convincing 25-17 win and in the process vaulted to the head of the AFC pack with six wins.  The loss set the Patriots back to 5-2 and into a tie with the victorious Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.  The 5-2 New York Giants come to town next week, so things don't look like they are getting much easier.

There is a lot to tell about this game; but frankly not much about the Patriots, who had too many defensive breakdowns to mention and did virtually nothing on offense except for one long drive.  So not as much detail on specific players this week, but more about how the Steelers changed their stripes to deliver a decisive win.

The Pittsburgh Offense had been inflexible over the years.  They would often try to establish physical dominance rather than adjust schemes that weren't working.  But not yesterday.  With improved deep threats at wide receiver, they spread out the Patriots defense to force match- ups and they took what the defense gave them.

Ask tight end Heath Miller about the results, if he ever comes back down from cloud nine.  Miller caught 7 passes for 85 yards, both career highs against the Patriots.  He repeatedly gashed them right down the middle, and he totaled five first downs (four on the first drive) and forced defensive adjustments that allowed his team to complete long throws to wide open receivers.

Give the Steelers offensive coaching staff credit for changing an old system that did not work.  They had five drives of 10+ plays each and held the ball for 39:22 (almost two-thirds of the game).  And they caused almost as much confusion and as many mental mistakes as the Saints did in their 2009 embarrassment of the Patriots, and that game had an epic series of breakdowns.

The Steelers defense used to play almost exclusively zone against the Patriots, and they would hold off blitzing until they had the Pats in stressful down-and-distance situations.  And predictably, Tom Brady would shred them with short gains that kept the chains moving and sustained drives.

But in yesterday's game, the Steelers unveiled something that appeared to take a page from Buddy Ryan's old "46" defense.  It's been years since I saw 10 men across the line of scrimmage that often; and though the Steelers didn't blitz as much as Ryan did from the formation, they slowed down and redirected receivers at the line to disrupt pass patterns.

The plan worked beautifully.  Even though Brady completed 68.5% of his passes, he was sacked three times and threw for just 198 yards.  And perhaps most important, the Patriots couldn't sustain drives.  Their only first-half touchdown was 2 play, 8 yard "drive."  They somehow had a drive with 9 plays and only 11 yards gained.  And their only sustained drive in the first half ended with a field goal.  And when they came out in the second half, with a chance to tie the game, they went three-and-out.

And in a stunning development, the Steelers special teams actually outplayed the Patriots.  They had better kickoff returns (averaging 27 yards to 18.5) and hit 75% of their field goals to the Patriots 50%.

As for the Patriots, there is mostly blame everywhere, but there were a few bright spots.  Kevin Faulk returned from a devastating 2010 knee injury, and he started and played well (though I suspect he missed a blitzer late in the game -- Brady stopped over for a chat with Faulk after the play).  Rob Gronkowski continues to impress, and safety Sergio Brown made one or two nice plays.

Jerod Mayo got back on the field, and looked a little rusty, even though he's a marked improvement over Gary Guyton (interception notwithstanding).  Andre Carter is becoming their one pass rushing threat -- he had two sacks and a QB hit on Sunday.  And even though their names are rarely on people's lips, both Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork do great work inside.  Still little pressure on the QB (though each got a sack yesterday), but it is tough to run through that middle.

One other encouraging note is how many times Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to hold the ball beyond his initial reads.  Three of the sacks were caused by great coverage, and Roethlisberger often had to pull the ball back down and look for a different receiver.  So maybe the secondary can make a play or two -- though this in no way absolves them from their  multiple breakdowns.  But if there's hope for the season, it lies in the current players improving.  And some of them are showing that improvement -- now they need consistency.

Also note that with all that went wrong, this was still a winnable game.  Pittsburgh got a late first down by half-a-football, and the Patriots could have saved another minute on the clock if they'd challenged an incorrect call on a Rob Gronkowski touchdown.  So all is not lost; at least not yet.  But the NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Giants are sure to try the same plan when they come to town next week.  Time to start working on some answers.

So where does that leave us?  5-2 isn't bad, but with the Jets and Bills playing well, it is getting crowded in the AFC East.  The Giants have the defensive front to give the Patriots trouble; but bear in mind that New York barely (and I mean barely) beat the awful Miami Dolphins yesterday.  So even at 5-2, the Giants might not pose the threat one would expect.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Buffalo Bills have only four shutouts against NFC opponents in franchise history.  The "oddity" part is that all the shutouts have come when the date has doubles at the end of the year.  They shut out an NFC team in 1977, 1988, 1999, and 2011.  (Big... BIG props to anyone who can name the teams without looking -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like the Steelers are finally sick of Tom Brady kicking sand in their face."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Atlanta Falcons in 1977 (3-0), Green Bay Packers in 1988 (28-0), Philadelphia Eagles in 1999 (26-0), and Washington in 2011 (23-0).

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