Patriots 30, Seahawks 20 (10/17/2004)

Well, I hope you enjoyed the game as much as I did. Seems like the one game don't go to is one of the best games of the year: last year, Patriots beat the Titans 38-30; this year it's 30-20 Pats over Seahawks. Everyone knew going into yesterday's game that the Seahawks would be one of the toughest tests of the year. In fact, several media know-it-alls predicted this might be a Super Bowl preview. Well, Seattle left just like they came in -- unproven in big games. They've got some work to do to be as good at the Patriots, and a long way to go before they'd represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (especially with Philly and Minnesota playing so well).

Offense

The offense was spectacular in the first half, sluggish for most of the second half, and then spectacular again when Bethel Johnson made one of the best catches you'll ever see to help close the deal with 3:00 left in the game. They scored on their first three possessions and showed a great mix of pass and run (33 rushes, 30 pass attempts for the game). Brady, Corey Dillon (two touchdowns), Daniel Graham (a couple of clutch catches), Kevin Faulk, and the entire offensive line played great in the first half, and Seattle didn't seem to have any answers for the Patriot offense until the third quarter. Once the Seahawks made their adjustments, they held the Partiots scoreless until midway through the fourth quarter. Brady uncharacteristically turned the ball over on two consecutive possessions: a fumble while running for a first down, and then an interception. It seemed to me like he was frustrated with their lack of offensive progress in the second half and tried too hard to get something going. If he'd played the possession/field-position game, the Seahawks probably wouldn't have gotten as close as they did. This unit should be scary if they ever get all their wide receivers back; they rang up 30 points against a defense ideally suited to stop them (they have "shut down" corners and the Pats had no extra wide receivers to get Seattle's backup DBs on the field). The run-pass balance with Dillon in town is remarkable (for the season, 156 rushing plays, 143 passing plays -- credit to Michael Smith of ESPN.com).

If you would indulge me, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate two unsung offensive guys: Daniel Graham and Dante Scarnecchia. Graham's progress in the passing game has been admirable, but the thing that keeps him on the field is his blocking ability. This game was the first time I heard the commentators mention his blocking, but you could see in the replays that he just takes guys out of the play, running plays, passing plays, trick plays, any plays at all. Glad to see him finally get recognition for this underrated part of tight end play.

Dante Scarnecchia is the team's offensive line coach. He's been a Patriots coach since the Ron Meyer days (that would be 1982 for those with short memories), he is serving under his seventh head coach with the Patriots, and he's coached everything from special teams and linebackers to tight ends and offensive line. Last season, he juggled an offensive line that started the year injured and ended the year with *zero* sacks in the entire playoffs even without the team's best lineman (Damien Woody -- injured for the Super Bowl) and a rookie at center (Dan Koppen). And this year, Dante's project is Stephen Neal, a guy who's been on and off the practice squad of two teams and spent time on the injured reserve list and the physically unable to perform list over the last three years. Well, he not only made the team, he's *starting* and blocking well in both pass and run schemes. It's not often a non-head coach, non-coordinator gets much attention in the NFL, but I just wanted to recognize Dante's longevity and obvious gift for coaching.

Defense

Suppose Seattle wants a do-over? Their first half couldn't have gone worse, with inopportune penalties, dropped passes, turnovers, and when they did get in the red zone, field goals instead of touchdowns. They looked flat, but a lot of it was due to the Patriots defense. They were hard-hitting, they played with anywhere from one to five defensive lineman and disguised their blitzes to confuse the Seahawks offensive line and get pressure on Hasselbeck. The Pats sacked him 3 times and had him on the run at least another 10. In fact, Hasselbeck doesn't throw very well on the run, so I'm sure that was part of the plan to stop Seattle.

Beyond the usual suspects (Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Ty Law and Tyrone Poole in the secondary), it's tough to pick out any one player for extra praise. They rotated lineman and linebackers so much that Jarvis Green got as much playing time as Vince Wilfork. And everyone in the secondary hit hard and broke up passes, and the Pats run defense kept Shaun Alexander completely in check. Willie McGinest was all over the place, though he rushed himself out of a few plays. And Eugene Wilson had ten tackles and a forced fumble. But this was one of those overall team performances. They shut the Seahawks down the entire first half, and then late in the game when it was on the line. And much like the Dolphins game, they won the red zone battle (Seattle had one touchdown in five trips inside the Patriots 20 yard line). Not bad when you're playing "offensive genius" Mike Holmgren.

Summary

The Patriots played their best game of the year on Sunday. It was a cooly efficient performance that reminded me of what I saw from great teams of the past when they played up-and-coming teams that weren't quite ready for prime time. The Pats won the following battles by a little bit: third-down conversions (50% to 47%); punting average (40.5 yards to 38); yards per return (23 to 21.5); interceptions (2 to 1); time of possession (31:37 to 28:23); rushing yards (130 to 102); yards per pass (7.2 to 6.4); and sacks (3 to 1). Not huge differences, but enough to overwhelm an inexperienced team playing on the road. Even when Seattle came within three points, I never thought the game was in doubt. Seattle just didn't have enough to get the job done.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Think Corey Dillon was worth a second-round pick?" (said with a wry smile).

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. Sorry this was late, but the Red Sox are frying my brain. And if you think that series is over, remember what I've been telling people since last Thursday: "If the Yankees don't win another game, they lose the series."

PPS. 5-0!

Patriots 24, Dolphins 10 (10/10/2004)

Hey, some people might be bored with this, but not me. My first six years with season tickets went like this: one game followed by a player's strike; 5-11; 1-15; 6-10; 2-14; 5-11. In fact, in the 1-15 season I went to all eight home games and they *lost every single one*. So I have no apologies for enjoying 19 wins in 19 weeks. It's a great accomplishment that has gotten just about the right amount of national attention. And as Seattle's loss on Sunday (after leading by 17 points with 5:50 left the game) showed, it is easy to lose your focus for just a few minutes and cost yourself a game. The Pats have maintained that focus, and have beaten 12 consecutive over-.500 opponents -- not bad, not bad at all.

Now, on to the ugliness. Tom Brady goes 7-19 for 69 yards, two touchdowns, one INT; Miami kicker injured *during warm-ups*. Pats go 4-14 on third-down conversions; Miami rushes for a 2.6 yard average. Both teams get more first downs by penalties than by running plays. Brady gashes his chin and is knocked around a lot more than the one sack would indicate; Miami loses both quarterbacks by game's end (and both are likely out for next week, too). Take your pick; it was an ugly game. But in the end, only the score counted and that went in the Patriots favor for the 19th consecutive time.

Offense

I thought the offense performed pretty well. Miami's defense is very good, and their plan was to hit Brady whenever they could (including some "roughing-the-passer") -- and it showed. So the Pats ran the ball right down their throat, and that worked pretty well. The Patriots out-gained Miami 2-to-1 in rushing, and once they had a lead, it allowed them to work the clock while daring Miami to try to score. Which of course, Miami could never do.

Given how the game played out, I give the O-line, tight end, and running backs a lot of credit. It was great to see Kevin Faulk back in the lineup, and Corey Dillon went for almost 100 yards and the recently picked-up Rabih Abdulla added a touchdown against a very stout defense. With Bethel Johnson, Troy Brown, and Deion Branch on the sideline, the Pats went with only three wide-receivers -- one signed only the previous week. And they did enough to get 24 points, which is more than you might expect against Miami, even with a full compliment of players. Brady's aforementioned stats are terrible, but if you want the most important stat in the game, here it is: red-zone efficency, Dolphins 20%, Patriots 100%. Ballgame. Two great play-fakes for two easy touchdowns were the difference.

Defense

Another stellar performance by Rodney Harrison. He was in on just about every big play of the game, and he anchored the secondary without Tyrone Poole (and sometimes Ty Law). And the play of the young guys continues to impress. Randall Gay got his first INT, Asante Samuel acquitted himself nicely (notwithstanding two completions against him), and Vince Wilfork played his best game as a pro. Now the Miami O-line is pretty bad, so I don't want to go overboard about Wilfork; but he might be the key to the Patriots having another very successful year. When he plays well, the Pats play a 3-4 defense (three defensive lineman and four linebackers), and in essence, that allows them to have much more complex blitzes and Rodney Harrison is free to blitz, drop into coverage, or help with the run. Keith Traylor has not been able to handle the demands of the 3-4, but Wilfork has shown flashes of being able to do so. He continues to improve, and that improvement might be more important to the Patriots season than most people think.

As for the rest of the defense, Bruschi and Law had big days, and I thought Roman Phifer played well. Also Richard Seymour and even Keith Traylor made some important plays. However, Ted Johnson is just a liability in pass defense. That wouldn't be so bad, except that the offense seems to change to a pass play whenever they see Johnson on the field. Now, the only reason they bring Johnson into the game is when we're having trouble stopping the run; so this situation bears watching. Better play from Wilfork and Traylor could mean less playing time for Johnson.

As for the overall defense, any time you stop a team from scoring 80% of their trips inside the red zone, you have accomplished something. Heck, the Dolphins had first-and-goal inside the one-yard line, and they lost 13 yards *and* both quarterbacks and didn't score. That's impressive no matter how bad the other team's offense is.

Special Teams

I guess they practiced and practiced and practiced all last week, and it seems to have sunk in. The Pats cut Shawn Mayer and signed Je'Rod Cherry (from last year's team) and some speed burner named Kevin Kasper. There are also rumors that Bethel Johnson was inactive for the game because he wasn't practicing hard enough. And the message finally got through: Miami averaged only 20 yards per kickoff return and 8 yards per punt return. The Pats return game wasn't better than it was against Buffalo, but the coverage teams were markedly better. Larry Izzo and Cherry were the special teams stars, seeming to make just about every tackle there was to be made.

Summary

I'll say it again: the Patriots haven't played their best football yet. They're getting better -- fewer turnovers and penalties and better special teams coverage. And they will have to continue improving to beat a very good Seattle team this week. I won't be at the game (::sobbing::), but I'll be rooting right along with the rest of you. I think the Pats will score against Seattle, especially if they get one or two receivers back this week. So the burning question will be whether or not Seattle can score more against the Patriots. And I think the answer will be "no."

Your Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:

"This was the second week in a row the Patriots played a team that *should have* signed away a Patriots assistant to be their head coach. The Dolphins are fond of blaming all their problems on Ricky Williams [who left the team just before the season started]. But their biggest off-season blunder was keeping a coach whose teams continued to decline even as they added more talented players."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-0!

Patriots 31, Bills 17 (10/3/2004)

Patriots score first, beat the division rival Bills 31-17, continue the winning streak to 18 consecutive, and remain tied for the division lead at 3-0. Life is good. It wasn't exactly a work of art (both teams had too many penalties and some ugly special teams play -- and even an official left the game injured), but it got the job done -- again. Here's what I saw:

Offense

The O-line shuffle from the past two games was pretty much gone. They stuck with five guys for most of the game, and I imagine that will continue as the weather gets cooler and heat exhaustion problems are diminished. Faced with 6-man blitzes two-thirds of the time, they protect Brady pretty well -- zero sacks, but he did get hit more than a few times. I give Buffalo's defense some of the credit; it's obvious that's where they've spent most of their time and money.

With the Pats running game slowed for most of the day (3.8 yards a carry), Tom Brady, David Patten, and David Givens came up big. Brady escaped with no interceptions, although he could have had at least two, and had two touchdowns and almost 300 yards passing despite being blitzed and harassed all day long. Patten went over 100 yards and had a huge touchdown just before the half, and Givens continues to be a big-time receiver who will make the tough catches over the middle. With Ben Watson out for the year, the Patriot receivers will have to do the dirty work over the middle again this year, so having Givens is a big plus. (Note: the Pats are already thin at wide receiver, with Troy Brown day-to-day, Deion Branch out of Sunday's game, and the injury to Bethel Johnson on Sunday.)

Corey Dillon was sort of give-and-take against the Bills. He had a great touchdown run right up the gut early in the game, and then fumbled at the 2-yard line (and had an uncalled fumble later on). The fumble was part of two "14-point swings" in the game: one where the Dillon fumble cost the Pats a touchdown and led to a Buffalo touchdown; the other when Drew Bledsoe's fumble cost Buffalo a possible touchdown and was directly converted to Richard Seymour's touchdown (more on that later).

Defense

The defense probably surprised the Bills by not blitzing for the first three quarters. The Pats stayed in their base defense, concentrating on making Buffalo sustain long drives to score, and for the most part, it worked. The Bills had one very long drive (96 yards) -- that was aided by a misplayed punt that went for a 34-yard gain, but most all their other drives stalled out eventually. The secondary did a better job tackling than covering, and they got two Bledsoe turnovers (interception early, fumble late). And once the Pats were ahead late and they knew the Bills would pass almost every down, the Patriots blitzed and had a man coming free on Bledsoe every down.

The D gave up only ten points (the other seven were on special teams). Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Eugene Wilson, and Rodney Harrison deserve special mention. All played well (especially Seymour, who continues to draw double- and sometimes triple-teams), although I wish Harrison didn't have to work so hard against the run. The D notched seven sacks and about twice that many pressures, and that led to many mis-thrown passes or wrong decisions by Bledsoe. And even when the Bills did complete passes, the defenders were right there to make the tackle, so there were very few yards after the catch for Buffalo. And of course, the Bruschi/Seymour combination on the fumble return for a touchdown was great. Buffalo's O-line blew the assignment, with the guard switching out to take Willie McGinest (who dropped into coverage instead of rushing) and the running back missing the assignment switch to take out Bruschi.

The Pats run defense continued to struggle, giving up 138 yards and a 5.3 per rush average. The only time they seemed to stop the run cold was when Vince Wilfork (who is getting better by the week) and Keith Traylor are on the field at the same time -- or when the running back fell down on his own. Sometimes playing Ted Johnson helped, but when he's on the field, teams usually switch to a pass play because he's weak in coverage. The Bills were committed to the run, and that made it more difficult; but when the Patriots play the more balanced offenses of Seattle and the NY Jets, they'll have their hands full if they can't stop the run with their base 3-4 (i.e. with either Wilfork or Traylor in the game -- but not both at the same time).

Special Teams

My mother always told me if I didn't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Good thing she's not on this list. The Patriots special teams got their assess fed to them at gunpoint by Buffalo. The Bills ended up with more return yards than passing yards (213 to 199), and out-returned the Pats almost two-to-one (213 to 117). A lot of those yards were on the 98-yard return by Terrence McGee, but the next four Patriot kickoffs resulted in the following field position for Buffalo: Bills 40, Bills 41, Bills 42, and Bills 39. They might as well have kicked all of them out of bounds (which Vinatieri did once) with those results.

The Patriots lost outside contain on a botched punt (which the punter ran it for 34 yards to keep an eventual touchdown drive alive), gave up two 10+ yard punt returns, and had two botched punt returns by Tyrone Poole. They did get a few good kickoff returns, but it did little to offset the yardage given up to Buffalo. Just a disaster for the Pats and their special teams coach Brad Seeley. I have a lot of respect for the Bills special teams coach, Bobby April (who ran the out-standing St. Louis special teams the past few years). But I know Bill Belichick will have everyone working on this all week, because Miami's special teams are historically among the top ten in the league. Look for more starters on special teams if things don't improve against Miami.

Summary

Buffalo is the ultimate Forrest Gump team: you never know what you're gonna get. Their defense is very fast and hard-hitting, but they gave up a lot of stupid of penalty yards; the offense ran well, pass-protected poorly, and came up with only ten points; and the special teams rocked most of the game but a penalty on a Pats field goal allowed the Pats to score a touchdown instead. It was a nice divisional win, but the Pats still have too many penalties (10 for 77 yards), are giving up too many yards on the ground, and need to be more careful with the ball (Brady could have thrown two INTs, and Dillon had two fumbles).

If they play the same type of game against Miami, it won't cost them a loss, because Miami's strong defense, they can't beat you if they can't score. However, the Pats better get their act together for the run against Seattle, the NY Jets, and then some tough road games. But of course, all-in-all it's nice to get a win. 18 straight and if they win next week, they will own the NFL record all by themselves. Sorry about the delayed update, but I was renovating my home this weekend and was exhausted Monday morning.

(The return of) Your Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like Buffalo made a real mistake not waiting to hire Charlie Weis [Patriots Offensive Coordinator]. If they'd waited until after the Super Bowl, they could have had a great offensive coach who might have turned their program around. But they rushed the decision and now they're 0-3 and look like they hired a guy who's in over his head [Mike Mularkey]."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-0!

Patriots 23, Cardinals 12 (9/19/2004)

You wouldn't think the Patriots could play worse than they did against Indy and still win, but they did. This game reminded me of many the Pats played in the late-1980s and early-1990s. Back then, New England was the bad team that would play its guts out while vastly superior teams from San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Seattle would fritter away opportunities, turn the ball over, suffer offensive and defensive lapses -- and still win by 14 points. This was a mirror image of those games, with the Patriots being the the superior opponent and the Cardinals being overwhelmed by the talented Pats. In case you missed the final score: New England 23, Arizona 12.

Another week another win -- 17 in a row is one short of the NFL record. Not a very exciting game, but it's important to win the ones you are supposed to win and the Pats did that. Here's what I saw:

Offense

All the offensive line shuffling is taking its toll. Brady was hurried and the O-line beaten around the corners too often. They did very well blocking for the run, but they've obviously got some work to do in pass protection, and they should settle on a starting 5 and go with them as soon as they can. They were short a tight end, which put them in more wide open formations; maybe that was the problem. As for the run, Corey Dillon was outstanding. 158 yards on 32 carries is more than the Patriots could ask, and he helped them control the clock and the game once they had the lead. His fumble might have been his or Brady's fault, tough to tell from the replays.

Brady played well, despite his two INTs (he threw one on the last play of the half and the other while being drilled). He averaged twice what Arizona did per pass (7.3 yards to 3.4), and the Pats controlled the ball for 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. And despite the pressure, Brady was only sacked twice. And of course, no analysis of the offense could be complete without mentioning David Givens. He made the tough catches in traffic to keep Patriot drives alive and had an outstanding day (6 catches for 118 yards). With Deion Branch out the entire second half, Givens delivered big time.

Oh, and even though the Pats scored only 23 points, they had one touchdown called back and one possible scoring drive stalled on penalties that I am absolutely certain were not penalties. Must be the NFL's way of evening the playing field when the home team is overmatched.

Defense

For years, NFL people have said that a Bill Belichick defense against a young quarterback is a mismatch. Yesterday's game should be Exhibit A in support of that idea. The Patriots blitzed from every angle, dropped eight men back into confusing zones, switched defenses when the offense switched plays at the line, and at every turn, the young Cardinals QB, Josh McCown, looked confused, scared, or just plain exhausted. His happiest plays were when he handed off to Emmitt Smith, though Smith and the running game didn't provide much yardage or relief.

The Pats defense dominated the game, sacking McCown five times and hitting him another ten, all while holding the NFL's all-time rushing leader to 2.3 yards a carry and a meaningless 1-yard TD. Seemed the only time the Cardinals scored was after a Patriot turnover or one of those drive-you-crazy penalties that the referees seem to call five times a game. (Speaking of penalties, Arizona's only touchdown came after a bogus call on Ty Law in the end zone. I know Bill's mantra of avoiding penalty calls, but how was Law supposed to keep from falling on the guy's back? He tripped over the receiver's foot and the laws of physics took over at that point. And for the past 20 years that has been considered incidental contact -- but not anymore.)

The run defense was vastly improved (although the Cardinals probably aren't as formidable on the O-line as the Colts were). Vince Wilfork and Keith Traylor improved dramatically at nose tackle, Willie McGinest had some key knockdowns and sacks, and Rodney Harrison had some of those big hits he's famous for. The linebackers were flying to the ball, stuffing the run and stopping receivers for no gain after the catch. The Pats held Arizona to 3.3 yards per play, outstanding in today's NFL, and excepting the Cards's first drive of the second half, the Patriot defense controlled the game from start to finish.

Special Teams

Troy Brown is back and all is right with the world. Troy had some nifty returns and most important, didn't have any fumbles or lost yards on the return. Bethel Johnson didn't have much kickoff returning to do (three of the four Arizona kickoffs were downed in the end zone, but that was more a testament to the Patriots defense stopping the Cardinals from scoring). Adam didn't miss, and the Patriots downfield coverage teams look like they might be better this year than last. New punter Josh Miller is a keeper (45.7 yard average and no return on any of them).

Summary

Well sure, the Patriots committed three turnovers and 12 penalties, and they were sometime sloppy with the play-calling. But overall, this was a dangerous game. Their next game is a division opponent on the road, and teams oftentimes overlook struggling opponents in that scenario. But once again, they made the critical plays to make sure the game was never in doubt. 17 in a row is sweet, and with two weeks to plan for the Bills (who have apparently forgotten how to play offense), things are looking good. It's never fun to have a bye week this early, but I'm sure the coaching staff will put it to good use.

See you in two weeks,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots 27, Colts 24 (9/9/2004)

Well, well, well... another week another close victory. The Pats played exceptionally well on offense and poorly on defense and special teams -- yet they came away with a 27-24 victory over the Colts. It was a festive atmosphere, with the crowd cheering every pre-game field goal by Adam and the Super Bowl banner being unveiled. I'm guessing the concerts looked better at home than in the stadium, but it was fun to watch these guys perform in the rain. With losses by Miami and Buffalo and a win by the Jets, the Pats are tied for first place in their division, and had ten days before playing a mediocre-to-bad Arizona team. They appear poised to make it 2-0 to start the season.

Offense

Tom Brady is clearly better than he was last year. He made no mistakes reading the defense and completed passes to receivers who weren't even really open. Brady threw for 80 more yards than supposedly-best-QB Peyton Manning, was sacked only once, and his only interception resulted from a missed route by Daniel Graham. He was outstanding, squeezing the ball in to receivers who were barely open (or in some cases, not open at all). And speaking receivers, kudos to this group (especially David Patten, Daniel Graham, and David Givens) for making the catch when they were about to get hit hard. Corey Dillon ran well (5.7 yards a carry) and made quick cuts and moves that I haven't seen from the Patriots in a long time. The O-line did a good job protecting Brady (although he was sacked once and pressured a few other times) and run blocking (almost 5 yards a carry). This was particularly important because the Patriots rotated their offensive lineman for the entire game to keep them fresh, and that can often lead to confusion; but these guys handled it well.

Defense

What to say, what to say. The Colts ran at will, pointing to the absense of Ted Washington and the underperformance of Keith Traylor. In fact, rookie Vince Wilfork significantly out-played Traylor, a 13-year veteran. The only time the Pats really stopped the run was with both men in the game at the same time, in a modified 4-3 defense. But Traylor was plain and simply neutralized by one man on most every play, whereas Wilfork at least took two men or forced the running back to change directions when he was one-on-one. The plus is that Wilfork will only get better, so the run defense should improve as the season progresses.

There were also too many missed assignments in the defensive backfield and linebacker corp, with Edgerrin James and the Colt receivers running free all game long. Both Ty Law and Rodney Harrison had some hamstring tightness and left the game for significant periods of time. And I give Asante Samuel a lot of credit for stepping up and playing well; but the Colts have too many weapons in the passing game to play them at less than 100% for too long. However, the defense made the plays they had to make in crunch time. They forced two James fumbles at critical times, intercepted a Manning pass near their own goalline, and sacked him with 40 seconds left to force a long Colt field goal attempt (which they missed). Willie McGinest made that sack, and Colt fans must see him in their nightmares after last year's goalline tackle to win the game in Indy.

Special Teams

The Patriots special teams were 'specially bad. Patrick Pass and Bethel Johnson botched a kickoff, Deion Branch turned the ball over attempting a fair catch on a late punt, Josh Miller outkicked his coverage at least twice (although his 47-yard average was nice), and too many return men tried the old "I'll go backwards to get around this corner" trick and ended up losing yardage. It wasn't all bad; Adam's kickoffs were deeper than last year and the coverage was passable. But there's a lot to work on here: who returns punts when Troy Brown is out (as was the case Thursday); when will Troy return; who is the backfield captain on kickoff returns; why can't these guys just catch the ball (a concern I had in the pre-season); why don't they just run straight ahead and take the yardarge they can; if Miller outkicks his coverage now, what happens when other teams jam our outside "gunners" at the line. I think they'll get these worked out over the next few games -- perhaps with more starters playing on special teams, perhaps with a new punt returner. But in any case, expect a busy week for special teams coach Brad Seeley and his players.

Summary

I'm very satisfied with the way the game went. The Patriots have improvements to make on the defensive line and in the secondary, they need to play a lot better on special teams, and the offense was great. And I have no doubt that the defensive and special teams improvements will happen; this coaching staff is just too good not to fix what's broken. And with all that, they still won, and they had 10 days to prepare for Arizona (a 17-10 loser yesterday). I'm sure they will perform a lot better on defense and special teams, and if the offense can just play 90% as well as they did last Thursday, it should be another win.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. Sorry this was late, but I was exhausted on Friday morning and once that deadline passed, I thought it would be best to wait until Monday so I could comment on this past weekend's games.

PPS. 1-0!

Patriots 2004 Season Preview (9/7/2004)

Patriots Preview 2004

The Patriots had a busy off-season, what with the draft, free agency, training camp, the pre-season… and of course, designing their World Championship rings and banner! There have been some significant changes from last year, and here are my thoughts on how the old and new faces will fare in 2004.

The Draft

The Patriots had the best draft this year when they traded a second round pick for Corey Dillon, one of the five best running backs in the NFL. Everything else was gravy. Excepting last season, Dillon has run for 1,250 yards a year (for six years), he blocks well, and has good hands in the passing game. They also drafted two players in the first round (Ben Watson, tight end; and Vince Wilfork, defensive tackle) who were both rated to go higher than the Patriots picked them; so they got good value there.

Wilfork will need some work before he’s ready to step in, but Watson looks like a keeper already. He appears to be a Daniel Graham clone, except he’s got better speed and catches the ball more consistently. It should be interesting to see what Charlie Weis does with all this offensive talent. He must feel like a kid in a candy store right about now.

Offense

Hope you said your "good-byes" to Damien Woody. His injury vaulted Dan Koppen to starting center, and Woody never got his job back; so when he got a big contract offer from Detroit, the Pats let him go. The offensive line played well in the one pre-season game they were all healthy for – at Carolina. The other games exposed the backups and showed that good health along the line will be one of the most important factors in their 2004 season.

Antowain Smith went to Tennessee and has been replaced by Corey Dillon, a vastly better running back. If Dillon can block and hold onto the ball as well as Smith, we won’t miss Antowain at all. The wide receiver corps should be improved with another year under their belt and a healthy David Patten. And Tom Brady should be Tom Brady. At 27, there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be better than last year, and he’s making a conscious effort to have fewer turnovers (both fumbles and interceptions). There is less experience backing him up (Rohan Davey replaced Damon Huard), so the Pats are banking on a healthy Brady for the season.

Defense

Two-thirds of the Patriots starting defensive line left the team this off-season when both Ted Washington and Bobby Hamilton went to Oakland. To counter that, the Pats signed Keith Traylor (and two other free agents who are now injured and out for the year, Dana Stubblefield and Rodney Bailey), drafted Wilfork, and moved Ty Warren to start at left end. I don’t think Traylor can replace Washington, so the run defense could be a bit worse; but Warren will be a fine replacement for Hamilton. The team’s depth isn’t what it was last year, but as Wilfork works into the lineup, the defensive line could go from a question mark to a strength.

Rosevelt Colvin has returned from last year’s season-ending injury, and he and the rest of the linebackers (Tedy Bruschi, Roman Phifer, Mike Vrabel, and Ted Johnson) are the heart of this defense. Bruschi, Phifer, and Vrabel can do it all, and Johnson is a proven run stopper. Backups Larry Izzo and Tully Banta-Cain could start for many teams in the NFL.

The secondary looks the same as last year (whew!). Ty Law made peace with Belichick and is a happy camper, Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson will be back at safety to punish receivers over the middle, and Tyrone Poole will be ably backed up at cornerback by Asante Samuel.

The biggest change in the secondary will be a renewed enforcement of the "5-yard contact zone" rule. This means that any contact more than five yards downfield during a pass play will result in a penalty. I think this rule change will help the Patriots offense more than it could possibly hurt the defense – because the Pats have so many great defensive backs that no matter the rules, they will continue to outplay their counterparts on the other teams.

Special Teams

Better in all aspects. Adam Vinatieri nursed a back injury all last year and still kicked the game winner in the Super Bowl, Josh Miller has averaged about ten yards more per punt than Ken Walter did last year, and long snapper Lonnie Paxton is back from an injury. Adam’s kickoffs have been longer, the kick coverage has been good throughout the pre-season, and two key players, returner Bethel Johnson and coverage expert Larry Izzo, are back. If the kick returners could just catch the ball before they start running (something that caused them problems during the pre-season), we will have another year of upper-echelon special teams play.

Coaches

In the 2003 season preview, I said we should try to win a Super Bowl this year because the other NFL teams couldn’t possibly be stupid enough to let us keep defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis once the season was over. Well, I was wrong. Oakland hired our linebackers coach to be their defensive coordinator, but other than that, the coaching staff remains in place.

And with that, we have the best top-to-bottom coaching staff in the NFL. They make adjustments midgame and from game to game better than any staff I’ve ever watched, and they always seem prepared for any situation. So I’ll repeat myself: we better win another Super Bowl because it JUST ISN’T POSSIBLE that both Weis and Crennel will be back next year. Is it? I mean isn't there an old saying, "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me."

The Schedule

The Patriots can expect everyone’s best effort this year. That happens to both Super Bowl teams the next season, and especially to the winner. However, I believe the players are better prepared for it than they were two years ago -- and that team only missed the playoffs in a tie-breaker -- and the schedule is easier than last year's. So here goes with a fearless look at this year’s schedule:

I expect the Patriots to beat the Colts in a high-scoring affair to open the season (home field and the Pats offense versus Indy’s smallish defense should be the deciding factors). They then have ten days before playing Arizona on the road, another game they should win, and they follow that up with a bye week. After the bye, they have Buffalo on the road and Miami at home. It’s always tough to win road games within your division, but something tells me that this year will not be a repeat of last year’s Buffalo debacle. With the extra time to see their offensive changes and with Drew Bledsoe having to learn another new offense, and Buffalo’s bruising schedule at that time (three consecutive division games, starting with the Pats), the Patriots should win that third game. Which will bring it to the possibility of breaking the record for consecutive wins against the team that holds that record – the Miami Dolphins. And if the streak is intact, expect it to continue. Like I said, it’s tough to win road games within your division, and this one is a road game for the Dolphins. I expect the Pats to be either 3-1 or 4-0 at this point, with the only question mark being the Colts game.

The second quarter of the season begins with Seattle and the NY Jets coming to Foxboro. Both games are winnable, with the Jets searching for an identity and Seattle vulnerable at linebacker and in the secondary – plus the fact that the Seahawks have a division road game the following week across the country in Arizona. (Note: historically, the Patriots and Jets have often split the season series with the road team being victorious both times. I don’t expect that this year, but if the Jets win this game, count on the Patriots winning the game in NY.) The Pittsburgh and St. Louis games could be tough, with the both games on the road the week after the opponent had a bye. Additionally, the Pats play Buffalo in prime time (Sunday night game) the week after St. Louis, so there could be a bit of a letdown there. Expect the Pats to lose one of these two games, but not both.

The third quarter of the season begins with the aforementioned tilt against Buffalo. The Pats should absolutely win that one – at home against a division rival. The next week, they’re on the road for a Monday night game against Kansas City, a team that hopes their defensive collapse last year was due to ousted coordinator Greg Robinson. I don’t believe it; the chiefs are old and slow on defense, and they will have just finished two games against bruising defenses on the road before coming home for this. Patriots should win with superior balance over a team ranked 2nd in offense and 29th in defense last year. Next up is the Baltimore Ravens and their brutal defense at Foxboro. This will be a tough game, given the traditional Monday night hangover; but if Anthony Wright isn’t the quarterback (he’s due to start playing again in October), the Patriots will be able to load up against the run and force either Kordell Stewart or Kyle Boller to beat them. Stewart has never had success passing against the Patriots, and Boller is in his second year. If Wright doesn’t play or only started playing within the previous two weeks, I expect the Patriots can overcome the Monday night jinx; otherwise, it will be difficult to win against Baltimore because of their ferocious defense and Wright’s return would give them balance on offense. We finish up this quarter with a road trip to Cleveland, and with Cleveland having a division road game the previous week, I expect the Patriots can handle them. An injury-ravaged Patriots team beat them last year and the Browns haven’t improved since then while I think the Pats have.

Cincinnati comes to town to start the all-important final quarter of the regular season. The Bengals will have just finished three consecutive division games, and the Patriots should have revenge on their minds for the 31-0 drubbing the Bengals gave them in the pre-season (it wasn’t as bad as all that; most of the points were scored against our second and third team defense). I’ll pencil in a win. And the Patriots will finish the year with a win over the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami (Dolphins just aren’t that good anymore), a loss to the Jets in NY (Monday night hangover against a division opponent on the road – too much for most any team), and by beating up a bad San Francisco team at home. The only way the I see the Patriots winning the Jets game is if it means the playoffs for them (or as explained in my earlier note); but as you can probably guess, I expect they will have the playoffs in hand by then.

Summary

If you count the Baltimore game as a loss, that puts the Patriots at 13-3 (and an opening-day loss to the Colts would make them 12-4). And that just about guarantees them the division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The unknown factors, of course, are how the Patriots will react to getting everyone else’s "A" game and whether or not injuries will hurt them this year. Last year, they proved that injuries don’t have to derail your season, but when everyone is gunning for you, injuries happen more frequently and it hurts more to have your starters out.

And remember, they didn’t blow many teams out last year. A bounce here or a penalty there and they could have finished with four more losses than they did. The margin of victory in the NFL seems to get slimmer every year. You just have to trust the evidence you’ve seen that no matter what obstacles come, Belichick and his coaching staff will answer the call as they always have – like champions.

Enjoy the season,

- Scott

Off-season Update (3/5/2004)

Just a quick update because some people out there seem panicked about the Patriots off-season losses.

There have been four main stories lately, and here's my take on each one.

1. Along the defensive line, there could be a few new faces. Anthony Pleasant is expected to retire, Ted Washington signed with the Raiders, and Bobby Hamilton is a free agent. Pleasant was a good player who knew Belichick's system and worked hard in the off-season and during the regular season. He will be missed if he goes, but with 14 years in the league, he probably wouldn't play much longer even if he returned. Bobby Hamilton and Ted Washington were valuable contributors last year and it would have been nice to have them both back. But with the Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, and a boat load of draft picks, the Patriots will never be in a better position to replace both of these players.

Besides, Ted Washington's impact on the Patriots run defense was overrated all year long. 2003, the Patriots actually played better against the run without Ted Washington (3 yards a carry) than with him (3.7 yards a carry). Tedy Bruschi is the heart of the New England Defense -- keep him healthy and they will do fine.

2. Ty Law is "insulted" by the Patriots latest offer. Boo-frickin-hoo. He's signed through the 2005 season, and with the salary cap growing faster than anyone expected, Ty will play here next year (unless the Pats trade him) -- either under a new contract or under the old one. At $9.5 million under the cap, it hurts to keep him, but releasing him costs even more, so don't expect that. I fully expect that Ty will be here, playing cornerback better than anyone else in the NFL, and we will have to deal with next year when it comes.

3. Antowain Smith was released. This was simply a salary cap move, with the Pats saving $2 million under the cap by releasing Antowain before his roster bonus kicked in. Smith could still be back here next year because the market for 642-yard rushers just isn't what it once was (that's less than 50 yards a game), and the free agent market for running backs is far from stellar.

4. Damien Woody (probably) goes to the Lions. This was simply an economic decision. In the NFL, a center always makes more than a guard, so when the Patriots found their center-of-the-future in Dan Koppen, that shifted Woody to guard. And the Patriots were understandably unwilling to pay Woody center-type money to play guard, so since he was a free agent, that spelled the end of his Patriots career.

On the plus side, Russ Hochstein filled in well for Woody against the Colts and Panthers this post-season, and the unit allowed zero sacks in the playoffs even with Woody on the sideline half the time. This is clearly a loss -- Damien was a monster on the O-line once he became a guard. But there just wasn't any way he was going to stay -- just too much money out there for a good center.

That's about it. My advice is not to worry. The Pats are doing fine this off-season. They lost only two good contributors from last year (Ted Washington and Damien Woody), but the core of the team and the key young players are all still on-board. Oh, and don't forget: your team is the World Champions, and you should enjoy the ride!

Keep the faith,

- Scott