Patriots 39, Steelers 26

Pittsburgh fans must hate Tom Brady the way I hated John Elway -- no matter how things looked beforehand or where the game was played, they just can't beat the guy.  Same story yesterday; a 39-26 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated.  The victory helped the 7-2 Pats keep pace with the Jets, who won earlier in the day, as the teams remain tied for first place in the AFC East.  And the victory came not a moment too soon, with the Colts coming to town next week and a short turn-around for a Turkey Day contest in Detroit.

Last night's game was the one Rob Gronkowski was supposed to have against Cleveland.  The Patriots continue to target the rookie tight end, and he bounced back from his worst game to dominate this one -- three touchdowns on five catches and superb blocking in both the running and passing games.  The 6' 7" Gronk is a beast to cover, and his production, coupled with a great game by Wes Welker (8 catches for 89 yards) should open things up for other receivers.  And aside from a few dropped passes (Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Tate), it was a flawless offensive performance.

Of course, none of that firepower would have been possible without stellar play from the O-line.  With Stephen Neal injured and out of the game, and the vaunted Steelers defense ready to bully and blitz the Pats to death, it was surprising that the Pats outgained them on the ground (103 to 76) and gave up zero sacks and only three QB hits.  Give credit to, Mr. Versatile, Dan Connolly, who stepped in for the injured Neal and didn't miss a beat, much like when he replaced holdout Logan Mankins the first seven games.

And speaking of Mankins, he came back at just the right time, playing the entire game and doing a great job run blocking and following through play-action fakes with pulls around end where he still managed to get good blocks in pass protection.  That is no easy task, and he was more than up to it.  Even oft-maligned Matt Light had a very good game; and perhaps deserves more praise, especially given that he goes up against the best pass rusher every week.  Tell you what, if he plays well next week against Indy, he'll get his own paragraph.

And as you might have guessed, with a decent running game (thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- 18 carries for 87 yards) and facing very little pressure, Dr. Tom Brady carved up the suspect Steelers defensive backfield.  The Steelers hadn't let up a first quarter touchdown all year, but Brady marched the team to an 8-play, 70 yard touchdown drive to open the game.  The drive included his best throw, a laser to Gronkowski through a ridiculously small opening.  Brady now holds the best current career passer rating against Pittsburgh, and is only the second quarterback in NFL history with three consecutive 300-yard passing days against them.  Must be something about those black-and-gold uniforms that brings out the best in #12.  Maybe the Patriots should see if they can play the Bruins in up-coming years.

The young defense performed admirably.  Edge rushing by Jermaine Cunningham and Tully Banta-Cain pushed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger up in the pocket, and Mike Wright did an outstanding job at nose tackle, pushing the line back into Roethlisberger.  Banta-Cain and Wright notched 1.5 sacks each, and had the Pittsburgh QB under constant pressure.  And for the most the pass rush kept him in the -- though Rob Ninkovich has some 'splaining to do about his whiff in the first half.

Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Pat Chung handled the run a lot more easily than I thought they would.  The Patriots rarely stunt or twist along the defensive line, but they did a lot of that last night, and it seemed to catch the Steelers off-guard.  Pittsburgh had a decent run or two, but for the most part their ground game was out of sync, and the Patriots are the first team to control that running attack all year.

Pat Chung makes a significant difference on this defense, bringing a hard-hitting attitude and making big plays the way Brandon Meriweather is supposed to.  And rookie corner Devin McCourty continues to impress, both with improved pass coverage and exceptional support against the run.  He is a sure tackler on edge running plays, he doesn't get beaten deep when his safety blitzes, and he has long arms and great technique.  That wooshing sound you hear is all the post-draft McCourty doubters doing an abrupt about-face.

In all candor, the defensive performance was just a little bit smoke and mirrors.  Remember that Pittsburgh dropped three touchdown passes during the game and lost their best wideout early on.  They even threw in some ill-timed penalties on a few drives, and the Patriots soft zone in the fourth quarter didn't work very well; even though the offense (and at one point, the defense) continued to put up points to keep the Steelers at bay.  But give the Pats defense credit; they hit harder than the Steelers, and the scheme was well conceived and brilliantly executed.

And after a week of worrying that special teams would suffer without Stephen Gostkowski... well, there appears to be something to worry about.  Shane Graham missed an extra point, and his kickoffs will not be the same weapon that Gostkowski's were.  But new long snapper Matt Katula acquitted himself well, and if they can get that extra point thing straightened out it'll be all good.  Kudos to the special teams coaches and players for pulling it together with less than a week to prepare with two new guys in critical positions.

And more kudos to the Patriots coaching staff.  The offense was imaginative and the mix of run/pass was the best of the year.  They didn't play into the strengths of their opponent -- throwing 65% of the time rather than foolishly "establishing the run" against the best run defense in the NFL -- and they made very good offensive adjustments at the half, witness touchdown drives of 78 and 80 yards in the third quarter.  And on defense, the coaches had them in the right position often enough and the blitzing and stunting confused Pittsburgh enough to slow them down.  Three points allowed in the first half are all you need to know about the defensive game-plan... but my advice is to rework that soft zone -- it looked really bad and didn't really take enough time off the clock.

So where does that leave us?  7-2 isn't a bad record at all, and the game next Sunday against the Colts is their next big test.  Indy leads the AFC South division, but that won't make them any less hungry to beat the Patriots.  They *always* play the Pats tough, so expect a dog fight.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots and Steelers each had exactly 15:00 of possession time in the first half.  And trust me, I've looked at enough box scores to know it's been a long time since that happened.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gronkowski and McCourty have to be the Patriots offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  They are playing like five-year veterans."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!

Patriots 14, Browns 34

Last week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

[The Patriots] have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time [head coach Eric Mangini] had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

This week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

I warned you!

NFL teams are just too closely matched to have an off week like the Patriots did yesterday, and with two critical fumbles and multiple dropped passes (and off-target passes), the Pats lost to the Browns 34-14 in Cleveland.  The game leaves them at 6-2 and in a first place tie with the Jets, who pulled out an overtime win against the Lions, and leaves them scratching their heads over a game that some had labeled "a second bye week" for the local 11.

There were too many bad plays and players to single them all out, but here were some critical plays that went badly awry and players who underperformed.

The Browns first kickoff was purposefully left short to avoid Brandon Tate's explosive return abilities.  Rob Gronkowski signaled a fair catch at the 20, and should have caught it.  But inexplicably, he let it go and a shocked Sammie Morris tried to dive on it, but it squirted free and the Browns recovered.  Two plays later, the Browns punched it in for a 10-0 lead less than 4:00 into the game.

It was a terrible play on a lot of fronts.  Gronkowski appeared ready to block for Morris; but once he signaled fair catch he can't do that anymore.  So once he'd signaled for the fair catch, there was really no other option.  It was a very bad rookie mistake, and one that should earn him a few extra laps at practice this week.

However, it wasn't his only bad play.  On the Patriots opening drive, he dropped a short swing pass that would have left them with third-and-short, but instead it was third-and-seven.  The next drop wasn't his fault; but he had several others during the game.  He also fumbled at the Browns' 2 yard line just before the half, on a drive that appeared destined to leave the dominated Patriots just 3 points behind at the break.

Gronk wasn't the only one with dropped passes: Aaron Hernandez had two, Deion Branch had one, Wes Welker had an uncharacteristic drop, and Danny Woodhead "contributed" one of his own.  And in another terrible play, Brandon Tate dropped an easy one across the middle that would have made it first down in Browns territory with the game still in doubt in the third quarter.  No excuse; he just flat out dropped it -- and the Patriots had to punt again.

Tom Brady was clearly frustrated with the drops and with what he thought were bad patterns.  But he didn't help the cause, his throws were all over the place -- some too high, some too low, and some to the wrong spot.  For the most part the protection was mediocre; though the Browns only got one sack, they often made Brady throw off his back foot or only after sliding in the pocket.

And speaking of the offensive line; maybe they need to start Dan Connolly instead of Logan Mankins.  Because they were pathetic yesterday.  No push in the running game, three-man rushes that forced Brady out of the pocket, bad blocking on unsuccessful screens, and some free rushers coming at Brady.  Mankins didn't do much for his erstwhile free agency campaign in 2011; though it doesn't all fall to him.  Sebastian Vollmer got knocked on his ass a few times, and Stephen Neal whiffed on at least two one-on-one assignments.

Browns running back Peyton Hillis ran right through the defense; much more so than Ray Rice in the playoffs last year.  The Patriots tackling was terrible -- Hillis bounced off a three-man group at the goal-line then swung around them an early touchdown.  And every time the defense needed to make a sure tackle to stop a drive, the Browns players outran them to the corner (Jerod Mayo, Jermaine Cunningham, and Kyle Arrington), shook off arm tackles (Brandon Spikes and Tully Banta-Cain), or plowed over them (Brandon Deadrick, Vince Wilfork, and Gary Guyton).

When Jonathan Wilihite was your surest tackler, you *know* it was a bad day.  But don't think he had a great game, either.  In the first half, the Pats desperately needed to hold the Browns to a field goal to keep the game close.  They had them in third-and-four, and called the perfect defense -- an overload blitz.  Wilhite came in unblocked with a free shot at Browns QB Colt McCoy.  But Wilhite did the one thing he should never have done -- missed McCoy and let him break contain to the outside, where he threw a six-yard completion.  The next play was a Cleveland touchdown, rather than a field goal attempt.

On "special" teams, the entire kickoff return team was pathetic.  It was as if they'd never seen a a short kickoff -- no one knew what to do with the ball.  Aside from Gronkowski's screw up, Alge Crumpler did a fair catch with no one around him.  The Patriots best returner of the day was offensive lineman Dan Connolly -- who took the short kickoffs and ran them straight ahead for positive yardage.  And at the end of the game, Stephen Gostkowski was injured enough that Wes Welker kicked an extra point and the ensuing kickoff.

Add to that another bad snap by Jake Ingram (on a punt), and the fact that they controlled dangerous return man Joshua Cribbs by kicking it short and giving the Browns a short field -- and it was a very bad day on special teams.

I won't mention coaching, other than to say it's obvious which team was better prepared for the game.

So where does that leave us?  Well... 6-2 projects to 12-4 over an entire season, and that would surely get the Patriots in the playoffs.  No telling how the second half will go; but with a young defense and some young skill position players, there are bound to be down weeks like this.  In fact, there might be more of them a the season goes on, because the college football season is about 10 or 11 games long -- so some of those players will hit the rookie wall soon.  Steelers in Pittsburgh up next; hold onto your hat if they play poorly again.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The oddity is that for the first time in 200+ updates I don't have time to research a decent oddity.  Maybe I'll do two next week instead -- sorry :(

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Randy Moss trade was addition by subtraction, was Logan Mankins' return subtraction by addition?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-2!

Patriots 28, Vikings 18

It's weeks like this when you should cherish being a Patriots fan.  In most NFL cities, you get one good year out of three, owing to the unbalanced schedule and the fact that most teams don't draft well beyond the first 20 picks.  That's how it is in Minnesota -- and as if to prove it, the Vikings (who were in the NFC Championship Game last year) brought their can't-do attitude to Foxboro on Sunday and left with a 28-18 loss amid a lot of head scratching.  Meanwhile the Patriots continued their winning ways, sporting a 6-1 record that tops the entire NFL and puts them a game ahead in the division race.

At first, it looked like all-world running back Adrian Peterson would shred the Pats on the ground all day long, ripping off runs of 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, and 8 yards in the first half.  But it wasn't all bad; he was also stopped for no gain or a loss four times, including on a third-and-one to stop a drive and fourth-and-goal at the 1 yard line.  That last stop kept the game tied 7-7 at the half, and the tackle was made by rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes.

The Patriots defense continues on the road to improvement.  After being completely unable to stop anyone on third down, they held the Vikings to 36% in that key stat (after holding the Ravens to 31% two weeks ago).  Moving Vince Wilfork to an outside line position seems to confound opposing offenses, creating mismatches for Wilfork and allowing Mike Wright to attack with speed against schemes designed to stop beef.  The young linemen also improve every week; with Brandon Deaderick earning another start and Myron Pryor and Ron Brace looking a *lot* better than they did last year.

And all that up-front scheming leaves the linebackers to run to the ball, and Jerod Mayo is close to returning to his 2008 form (you remember; when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year).  Mayo's inside running mate Brandon Spikes shows good instincts and now rarely runs himself out of a play.  And for regular readers of this blog, you know that is progress -- since he did that a *lot* at the beginning of the year.  Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich still aren't where the defense needs them to be in holding up against the run and pressuring the quarterback.  And there were holes yesterday in the intermediate passing game over the middle.  But at this point, much improved from the start of the season.

The secondary did a terrific job yesterday in man-coverage.  Not so much in the soft zone; but when corners Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty jam receivers at the line they can run with just about anyone and showed good tackling ability (save for one catch-and-run by Percy Harvin against Arrington).  And McCourty plays the ball a lot better now, getting turned to the ball to knock it down and avoid penalties.  He cut inside a route by Harvin to break up a long pass, and ripped the ball away from Harvin later in the quarter for the only INT of the game.  The safeties played very deep against Minnesota, taking them out of the intermediate passing zones, but they never got beaten deep... until Brandon Merriweather found himself singled up on Randy Moss and had to commit a penalty to save a touchdown.

The Patriots running game was the opposite of the Vikings'.  The Pats totaled only 9 yards in the first half, but changed the blocking schemes to break out with 113 yards in the last 30 minutes.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis broke 100 yards for the first time in his career (17 carries for 112 yards), and scored two touchdowns for the first time, too.  He showed good quickness, hitting the hole and then making decisive cuts to get enough extra real estate against the secondary, and he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards a carry.  And you can't say enough about Danny Woodhead, who has now fully stepped into the role Kevin Faulk occupied for so long.  Now that they do direct-snaps to Woodhead (probably the closest you'll ever get to the Wildcat from the Patriots), he's doing everything Faulk did -- including breaking tackles to get important first downs late in the game.

Tom Brady's day seemed pretty pedestrian; but he had a 65-yard touchdown that was one of his best plays with the Patriots -- period.  He slid away from the pass rush, broke contain and spun away from more pressure before finding Brandon Tate breaking free down the sideline.  Oh, and Brady stood his ground to make that throw in the face of a big hit coming his way.  Just a great overall play.  Other than that, hewas cool and efficient, a few throw-aways to avoid sacks or INTs, and very good on third down.

The O-line was like the running game; not much in the first half but more push and better protection in the second.  Given how they man-handled a very good Vikings defensive line in the second half, it makes me wonder how good they will be if Logan Mankins, one of the best guards in the league, returns to play the last six games of the season, as he will reportedly do today.

On special teams, there were zero mistakes on long snaps; so it appears that Jake Ingram got all those problems out of the way against the Chargers.  It was another good day for both Zoltan Mesko and Stephen Gostkowski; with Mesko getting the Patriots out of a hole with a 55-yard punt.

And it bears special mention that the Patriots coaches have out-adjusted their last four opponents at the half.  The reason it bears mentioning is that it hasn't been consistently true for 2+ years.  But the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and now Vikings were outscored in the second half, and the Patriots offense in particular has performed a lot better after the break.

So where does that leave us?  Well, 6-1 isn't bad at all, putting the Patriots on pace for 13 or 14 wins for the year.  As mentioned, they lead the NFL at the moment, and they have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time Mangini had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Patriots inside linebacker Jerod Mayo leads the entire NFL in tackles with 86, even though he has played fewer games than the second and third place players.  Trivia question: when was the last time the league leader in tackles was from the Patriots (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Logan Mankins should talk to Randy Moss before he fully commits to leaving the Patriots.  The grass ain't always greener."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Okay... trick question -- the NFL has only kept official tackling stats for a few years, and the Patriots never had anyone lead the league.

Patriots 23, Chargers 20 (10/24/2010)

The Patriots and Chargers held a contest yesterday to see who wanted to win the game less -- and the Chargers came out on top at losing -- dropping a 23-20 decision in the comedy of errors that masqueraded as the CBS featured football game of the week.  The victory ties the 5-1 Patriots with the Jets for the AFC East lead (and in fact, for the best record in the NFL, along with Pittsburgh).  The team will undoubtedly crank up the welcome wagon for the return of Randy Moss next Sunday.  Insert Halloween puns here.

The Pats offense produced their lowest halftime yardage in almost seven years, and it was frustrating to watch.  In the first 30 minutes, Tom Brady completed 6 of 16 passes for 35 measly yards and was sacked three times for 24 yards.  The offense went 0 for 6 on third down conversions, was just 33% in the red zone, and ran for only 27 yards.  Overall the team committed six penalties, including on their first two kicks, had two really bad snaps on punts, and allowed the Chargers 146 total yards to their 38.

So how did they lead 13-3 at the half, you ask.  One word: turnovers.  San Diego receivers lost three fumbles, the first on a big hit, but the last two on the worst kind of mistakes you'll ever see at the NFL level.  Wide receiver Rich Goodman left the ball on the ground when he thought he was down by contact, but he'd never been touched, and safety James Sanders pounced on it.  Then running back Jacob Hester *thought* a throw was an incomplete pass, but it was a live ball because it was a lateral, and Rob Ninkovich scooped it up and returned it 63 yards.

The Patriots got 10 points after those two plays, and that was the obvious difference at the half.

The second half started well, with a 17-play, 79 yard drive for a New England touchdown.  When the Chargers could only muster a field goal in response, and the Pats answered with 3 points of their own, it looked like they'd coast to a win.  After all, a 23-6 lead should be safe with 11 minutes left in the game.  But not in this oddball affair.

San Diego marched down the field against a soft zone defense, scoring to make it 23-13 on a Philip Rivers touchdown pass.  Then the Patriots made a basic mistake of their own, letting the Chargers recover an onside kick when they *knew* it was coming.  (Note: they need to coach that better; two Patriots appeared to be waiting for the ball to go 10 yards, even though that requirement only applies to the kicking team.)  And wouldn't you know it, another Chargers touchdown to make it a 3-point game.

After a conventional kickoff, the Patriots went 4-and-out, opting to go for it on fourth-and-one -- and losing yard.  But give the Patriots defense credit, they made the Chargers try a long field goal (50 yards, after yet another stupid penalty), and the kick went off the upright and was no good.

As strange as the game was, it wasn't all bad.  Jerod Mayo is returning to his tackle-machine ways, and he couldn't do it without improved play from the D-line, which is doing a nice job keeping the other team's O-line off the Patriots linebackers.  Devin McCourty is still a bit of trick-or-treat, but he did a nice job on his interception, and had tight coverage about half the time.

Linebacker Jermaine Cunningham gets closer and closer to the QB every game, and did a nice job holding the edge against the run... most of the time.  And the off-set defensive line ploy, where Vince Wilfork plays left or right instead of on the nose, worked out very well most of the last two games.  Teams don't seem to be able to audible into a different play, and they end up running right at Vince more often than not -- and most of the time that's good for the Patriots.

The downside for the defense comes when you see Gary Guyton on the field (the tackle-missing machine), or when Kyle Arrington singles up against anyone.  There probably isn't a receiver in the league that can't beat Arrington one-on-one, so they need to give him safety or linebacker help.  And of course, seeing safety Pat Chung leave the game with an injury was not a good thing.

On offense, the line did not give Brady much time, and they couldn't run the ball.  The best drives they had involved lots of short passes and creative design to get Aaron Hernandez the ball.  But their thinness at running back and smallish offensive line came back to bite them in this game.

Thankfully, what didn't end up biting them were the bad snaps by Jake Ingram.  Ingram had a *great* first season (2009), missing on only one snap all year -- and that was on a field goal that Gostkowski made anyway.  But something was up yesterday.  Ingram had two high snaps on field goals, bounced three snaps to punter Zoltan Mesko, and added a holding call.  Here's hoping he got all of this out of his system in one game; because long snapping can be like putting in golf -- you never know when you might lose your touch, and it's tough to get it back.

The coaching was unremarkable; except for the two failed replay challenges and foolhardy decision to run wide on fourth-and-one.  Misdirection is your friend against a fast, aggressive defense, so a play-action fake or naked bootleg is a better bet in that situation.  Though a punt might have been good, too.

So where does that leave us?  As stated above, there are three teams at 5-1, and your Patriots are one of them.  The Vikings come to town next week, and even though they are 2-4 they are a dangerous team to play right now.  They are desperate for a win to keep up in a weak division, they have a stout defense and a dangerous offense.  Over/under on the number of Randy Moss costumes in the stands: 1,324... place your bets through legal channels only, please.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games by the same score: 23-20 over the Ravens and Chargers.  They last pulled off that feat the first two weeks of the 2007 season, when they won 38-14 over the Jets and, believe it or not, the Chargers.

Bonus Oddity: The offensively challenged Titans and Raiders are the only two teams with more points scored than the Patriots.  Trivia question: why then are the Patriots still ranked as the #1 scoring offense in the league (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why does Norv Turner still have a job?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Both the Titans and Raiders have played one more game than the Patriots; so New England's 29.5 points per game still rank #1.

Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (10/17/2010)

A great game yesterday between two of the top franchises of the past decade, with the Patriots coming out on top of a 23-20 overtime thriller.  The win puts the Pats at 4-1, tied for the second best record in the entire NFL and a half-game behind the Jets for the AFC East lead.  And on deck is a trip to the west coast to take on a reeling San Diego team.

There is a theory among some that you do whatever you can to avoid playing your way out of the playoffs in the first half of the season.  Dig an 0-6 hole, the theory goes, and you'll never climb out, but go 2-4 and you can still make a playoff run.  Well, the Patriots applied that thinking to the game yesterday, surviving first half domination to trail only 10-7, giving themselves a chance to make a run in the last 30 minutes.  Or make that 43 minutes, including a wee bit of overtime to decide the issue.

I don't have time for an in-depth breakdown of the game; so here are a half-dozen observations.

1.  The Patriots showed a more diverse offense with Randy Moss out of the picture.  Deion Branch caught 9 for 98 yards, including a crucial touchdown and two important grabs in overtime.  When the inside running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis stalled, they ran Danny Woodhead to the outside with success, and they called several misdirection plays, always good against an aggressive defense.  They went no-huddle for a while and got good blocking from the tight ends.

Bill O'Brien's play-calling displayed real imagination.  A particular favorite was the fake screen and pass up the seam to tight end Aaron Hernandez out of the bunch formation.  Not only did it gain good yardage, but it gives upcoming opponents something to think about before they jump the screen from that formation -- and it's *always* good when a defense thinks instead of reacts.

2.  They miss Kevin Faulk; but Woodhead and Hernandez pick up enough slack to make the loss tolerable.  Woodhead is small and plays with his pads low, making him very difficult to stop on initial contact.  He's quick around end and his improvement in the passing game was obvious yesterday (5 catches for 52 yards).

Hernandez has played four positions: wide receiver, slot receiver, tight end, and sometimes halfback, and they got him the ball from each of those spots.  The opposition doesn't seem to know quite how to handle Hernandez; he beats linebackers and slowish safeties, but teams don't want to commit a corner or even a nickelback to the tight end.  Quite the conundrum; should be fun to watch Hernandez punish teams for the rest of the season.

3.  The O-line deserves praise for giving Brady all day on some plays (including the touchdown to Branch) and for excellent scheme and execution in the outside running game.  But a closer look reveals three sacks and several free blitzers that busted up plays and led to Brady's only "real" interception.  The inside run was non-existent, too.

Overall a below-average performance.  Communication problems that lead to free blitzers are to be expected in road games when you can't hear... they should not happen at home.

4.  The Patriots defense can't stop both the run and pass out of their base set, but the substitute packages are doing better.  Replace Mike Wright with Ron Brace to beef up the line and it's tough to run against the Pats.  Replace Wilfork with a linebacker and Brandon Spikes with Gary Guyton and it's tough to pass.

The problems come when they don't guess right.  They can still stop the run okay with the pass-stopping package, but when their run stoppers are in the game they can't stop the pass at all.  Brandon Spikes is getting better and better at anticipating run or pass, and Jermaine Cunningham disrupts more plays each week.  But their base defense just can't defend both aspects of the game.

Baltimore doesn't have a balanced enough attack to really attack this defensive weakness, but several of their up-coming opponents do.  Pittsburgh, Indy, the Jets, and Green Bay all have the firepower to make the Pats pay when they are in the wrong substitution package.  Heck, San Diego might.


5.  Can we finally put to rest the idiocy of "the Ravens and Ray Rice ran all over the Patriots" in the playoffs last year?  Rice started that game with an 83-yard touchdown.  Since then, here are his numbers over two games:

49 carries for 164 (3.3 average, long run of 16 yards)

So please spare me how the Ravens out-toughed the Patriots and imposed their will on them last January.  It was more a poor performance by Tom Brady that cost the Patriots so dearly in that game.  The fact is the Ravens have been ineffective running the ball against the Patriots for over two full games now (including overtime yesterday) -- so the media can stop harping on the Pats for something that just isn't true.

6.  Stephen Gostkowski channeled Adam Vinatieri yesterday.  On a windy day he went 3-3 on field goals, dead-eying one to tie the game late and one to win it in overtime.  He also stuck 5 of 6 kickoffs into the end zone.  If you think that's no biggie, remember that his opposite number booted one out of bounds and the Patriots cashed in the advantageous field position for their only second-half touchdown.

Note: punter Zoltan Mesko changed field position three times in the game, with a 54-yard boot and a pooch punt when the Patriots were holding on by a thread in the first half.  And his most important punt this year was the 65-yard bomb in the fourth quarter, just when it appeared the Ravens were going to get good field position.

So where does that leave us?  There are only 3 teams in the NFL with just a single loss, so 4-1 is pretty good.  San Diego might be desperate for a win next Sunday, and they have often beaten the Patriots in the regular season.  But without some of their weapons from yesteryear, the Chargers might have more trouble this time than in the past.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Seattle Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West that has scored more points than they have allowed this season.  And they are only +1 on the year.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Expect the Ravens to see a steady dose of outside runs and misdirection plays.  The Pats killed them with that stuff."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-1!

Patriots Get Even Thinner with Moss Departure

You have no doubt read or heard that the Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings, a home-coming for Moss, who started his NFL career there.  The Pats reportedly received the Vikings 2011 third-round pick, and the Vikings received a deep-ball threat they desperately need before their 2010 season crashes and burns.

Moss' departure is a double-edged sword for the Patriots.  The pessimists say they lost their only deep threat, a receiver with 50+ touchdowns in three years and who commanded double coverage by all but the most talented defenses.  The optimists say that Brady threw to Moss much too often and will point to his pouting on the sidelines and post-game rant after the opening day win as distractions the team can live without.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I have criticized Brady for chucking passes to Moss even when he was covered, hoping Randy could come down with the ball or at least knock it down.  That worked in 2007; but in 2009 it twice led to bad interceptions in games the Patriots lost (Indy and Miami).  But I have also praised Moss for playing hurt and accepting the decoy role as other Patriots receivers benefited from his presence.  No chance the Patriots go 11-5 with QB Matt Cassel in 2008.

But when I read the news, I thought the new Patriots were aptly described in the title of a Stephen King novel.  "Thinner" was published by King under a pseudonym in 1984, and in it, the main character is cursed with becoming continually thinner.  It continues until he is barely able to walk and awaits his fate of inevitable heart failure while a close friend frantically tries to find a way to save him.

And that describes perfectly this Patriots team.  They once sported depth at most positions that was the envy of the league.  Richard Seymour goes down, plug in Jarvis Green and keep going.  Ty Law gets injured, put in rookie Randall Gayand the victories continue to pile up.  Lawyer Milloy leaves for more money and Eugene Wilson steps in and they win the Super Bowl.

But the 2010 version is dangerously thin at several key positions.  With the departure of Moss, they are one injury away from double coverage on both Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. One linebacker injury, and Gary Guyton starts the next game... and the opposing team salivates.  A suspension in the defensive backfield and Ty Law *might* be walking through that door; and he *will* be old and gray.  Another of their thirtysomething running backs goes down and I expect a call from Belichick, asking if I can learn the playbook by next week.

They is also a huge gulf between the starting and backup quarterback, and the defensive line is already "by committee" -- so an injury there would put Ron Brace into that rotation... not good, people.

From a top-to-bottom talent level, the Patriots were stout and hearty in 2004.  But since then, they looked a little lanky in 2005, and pale and peaked in 2006.  They got a top-line talent infusion in 2007, but the aging defense got rickety in 2008, and the gulf between starters and backups was positively cavernous in 2009.

It might not come back to bite them, but trading Randy Moss left them shakily thin at yet another position.  My most recent "Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom" was "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."  That better be true; because if he and Hernandez can't stretch the field, it'll be a lot tougher for Wes Welker to get eight catches a game, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to average 4.6 yards a carry.

Here's hoping the Patriots can avoid key injuries or suspensions.  Otherwise, the season might end as horribly as "Thinner" did -- and trust me folks, it was not a pretty ending to that story.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 41, Dolphins 14 (10/4/2010)

Belichick calls it "the kicking game," but on Monday night they were truly "special teams."  The Pats survived a tough first half and blew the doors off the joint after the break, putting up a 41-14 victory in Miami.  The win ties the Patriots with the Jets for first place in the AFC East (both teams at 3-1), and the bye week gives them some extra time to bask in the glow of a well-deserved victory.

It was the kind of special teams destruction usually reserved for college and high school games, and frankly something akin to what we saw around these parts in the Patriots 2001 Super Bowl run.  The Dolphins have had their special teams problems this year -- getting a punt blocked against the Jets, and apparently twice in the pre-season.  But they completely melted down against the Pats, and Miami already fired the special teams coach as a result.

The special teams dominance actually started with some less remarkable and often unnoticed plays in the first half.  Zoltan Mesko booted a 60-yard punt to change field position in the first quarter, and he pulled down two errant snaps on Stephen Gostkowski's field goals.  And not only did Gostkowski put those two through the uprights, he nailed his kickoffs, sending five of the seven into (or through) the end zone for touchbacks.  And Miami is not built to drive a long field, so winning the field position battle was important to staying in the game in the first half.

The Patriots started the second half with a big special teams play that was a harbinger of things to come.  Brandon Tate looped around a perfect block by Sammy Morris and outran an out-of-position Bobby Carpenter around the edge before scooting up the sideline for a touchdown --  his second touchdown on a kickoff return this year.  Interestingly, both have come on the opening kickoff of the second half.

Patrick Chung kept the special teams train rolling, with a blocked punt to end the next Dolphins drive.  Two Miami blockers (one of which was Bobby Carpenter again) whiffed on the play, allowing Chung an inside lane, which is a big no-no on special teams.  An inside move is the quickest way to the kicker, so special teamers are taught never to let anyone them to the inside.  Two plays later, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran the ball in for a touchdown on a great draw-play call.

After the teams traded touchdowns, Chung struck again, blocking a field goal attempt.  This time special teams scored it by themselves; backup defensive back Jarrad Page knocked the bouncing ball forward and Kyle Arrington scored his first NFL touchdown on a 35-yard return.  And that effectively put the game out of reach.

Chung wasn't done either.  On the defensive side, he picked off a Chad Henne pass and returned it for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.  And that put him in good company, the Patriots picked off four passes on the night.  Rob Ninkovich snagged the first two INTs of his career, both times reading the play perfectly and undercutting the route for the pick.  Good thing he did, too -- those plays were both in the first half, when the outcome was still in doubt.

The Pats defense tried some unconventional fronts, putting Mike Wright and Myron Pryor on the nose and shifting Vince Wilfork to the left, only to watch the Dolphins run the other way.  The plan produced uneven pressure at best, a few sacks and some hurries.  But most of Henne's bad performance should be chalked up to poor reads and bad choices.  He had a lot of time, but for this week at least, the Patriots bend-but-don't-break defense proved the perfect choice to defeat an overmatched quarterback. 

On offense, the Pats tried passing from an empty backfield, and the plan seemed sure to get Brady injured.  So they ran the ball more, using up clock and getting some rest for their defense.  Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead combined for 112 yards on 24 carries, and a touchdown each.  Pretty respectable for two undrafted free agents.  (Trivia question: name another undrafted free agent who led the Patriots in a significant category in this game.  Answer below.)  Green-Ellis runs with power and gets every yard the play can get, and Woodhead is a smallish guy who is tough to find when he runs inside, and he's been very exciting (and excitable) since coming to the team two weeks ago.

With the running game in gear, and facing multiple short fields after turnovers, Tom Brady finished with pedestrian numbers: 19 of 24 for 153 yards and a touchdown.  Not going to light the world on fire with those numbers, but frankly he didn't have many yards to gain for most of the game.  The O-line did a good job protecting him once they returned to a staple of their offense: short, ball-control passing.  Wes Welker got involved, and ended up with 8 grabs for 70 yards.  And tight end Aaron Hernandez continues to be a focal point, catching 5 passes before Miami adjusted their scheme to the rookie.

The coaching staff deserves special mention.  Special teams coach Scott O'Brien exploited the Dolphins scheme brilliantly.  It was the Patriots best special teams performance since the playoff win over Pittsburgh in 2002 (two touchdowns, one on a punt return and one on a blocked field goal return).

And the defensive staff did their homework, putting players in position for three INTs and stopping Miami short on a late fourth down.  Belichick took three defensive timeouts in the second half, twice stopping the drive cold within two plays.  A masterful job on special teams, and for a change, much improved halftime adjustments.

And on offense, they changed their plans when Miami made it clear they would not be beaten on long passes by Brady.  The Patriots ran more and used short passes to keep the chains and the clock moving.  All around, a great job by the coaching staff, against a team that came pretty close to sweeping them in 2009.

So where does that leave us?  3-1 is a lot better than 2-2, especially going into a bye week with a difficult schedule to follow.  The win puts them in a first place tie in the AFC East, and gives them a 2-1 division record so far.  Here's hoping Fred Taylor can get healthy over the bye week, because they will need more than three healthy running backs for the balance of the season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By now you've probably heard that the Patriots are the first team to score touchdowns passing, rushing, on an interception return, a kickoff return, and a return of a blocked field goal in the same game.  Interestingly, what no team had ever done in NFL history, the Patriots did in one half of football -- scoring all those touchdowns after halftime on Monday.  Hope you didn't fall asleep :)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."

Keep the faith (and enjoy the week off),

- Scott

PS.  3-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

Undrafted Wes Welker led the team in receptions (8) and yards (70).  Give yourself a half-point if you guessed Rob Ninkovich (who led with 2 interceptions) -- but he was drafted by New Orleans in 2006 (fifth round).