Patriots 2011 Regular Season Awards

The 2011 season flew by, a whirlwind of comeback wins and just three losses (by 15 total points). The Patriots set several records, mostly on offense but the defense was suspect from the beginning.

Before the Patriots start the playoffs, here is a look back a the best performers, newcomers, and most improved players of the 2011 campaign. 

The Offense 

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady
Honorable Mention: Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker 

Brady actually dropped off a bit from 2010, and it might seem like the easy road to choose him as the offensive MVP again. But frankly, without him as the triggerman, no on else on offense would look as good. His 105.6 rating ranked a distant third this pass-happy year, but he led the league in first-down percentage and had yet another season of over 3-to-1 touchdown to interception margin. He also had two of the top five receivers in the league (Gronkowski and Welker).

Brady is so good, his offensive coordinators keep getting high-profile promotions and great jobs. No one here wishes current OC Bill O'Brien ill as the new head coach at Penn State. But you have to wonder if that will work out any better than it did for Josh McDaniels or Charlie Weis once they didn't have Brady under center.

Gronkowski simply had the best season of any tight end in history: the most catches ever (90), the most yards ever (1,327), and the most touchdowns ever (18). His rise to superstardom was one of the biggest stories in the NFL, and not only does he have great stats, he's one of the best blocking tight ends in the league.
Welker picked things up again, another year removed from his knee injury. He continued his energizer bunny impersonation, always working to get open and willing to take a hit and keep coming back for more. He led the entire NFL in receiving (122 catches), tied for the lead in first downs (77), and was second in receiving yards (1,569). 

Most Improved Offensive Player: Rob Gronkowski
Honorable Mention: Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez 

Gronkowski more than doubled his receptions (42 to 90), yards (546 to 1,327), and continued his climb to the upper eschelon of NFL receivers (let alone tight ends).

Welker's numbers improved in catches (86 to 122), yards 9848 to 1,569), touchdowns (7 to 9), and games started (11 to 15).

Hernandez sort of got lost in all the Gronkowski kudos, but he went from 45 to 79 catches, started 7 games last year and 12 this year, and contributed more in the running game. A day might come when one of the tight ends decides to leave the team to become "the man" at tight end on another team, but it would be a mistake. The combination of these two, Brady, and tight ends coach Brian Ferentz is magic. 

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Brian Waters
Honorable Mention: Stevan Ridley 

The Patriots added guard Waters at the end of camp, after he was released by the Kansas City Chiefs. Usually, offensive linemen need time to learn the protections and gel with their fellow linemen, but Waters came from a similar system in KC and with the Patriots injuries, he had to play from the first game. And the results showed how well he adjusted.

He was their second-best linemen (to Logan Mankins), pass protecting well and blocking superbly in the running game (including pulls and plays in the second level). And with all the injuries along the offensive line, Waters' durability was key. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Waters has played in 157 of 160 games. Not sure why the Chiefs let him go, but... well, it was nice of them to help the Patriots like that.

Ridley showed promise in the pre-season, but despite his one early game against Oakland (10 carries for 97 yards), the bulk of his work came late in the year. All that said, he ended up with 441 yards and ran for 5.1 yards a carry, and most teams are probably more afraid of his big-play ability than the other Patriots running backs. 

The Defense 

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Vince Wilfork, Andre Carter
Honorable Mention: Patrick Chung 

Albert Haynesworth and Shaun Ellis didn't work out, Mike Wright and Myron Pryor were injured early, and that left the defensive line to Wilfork and Carter.  Wilfork was the lynchpin inside. Besides his usual stellar play against the run, he had the first two interceptions of his career, notched 3.5 sacks, and recovered a fumble in the end zone for his first touchdown. He also allowed the team to get away with a revolving door on the defensive line (think you can pick Kyle Love or Brandon Deaderick out of a police lineup?).

Carter accounted for 25% of the entire teams sacks, totaling 10 in all. (Trivia question: kudos to you if you can name the last player with double-digit sacks for the Patriots; answer below.) Carter also proved adept at holding the edge in the running game, and he came up with two fumble recoveries. Oh, and four of his sacks game against the Jets -- that was a little bonus that put him over the top.

Chung's value was apparent in the eight games he missed. There simply was no "second-best safety" -- the rest of the crew got beaten deep repeatedly and miscommunication made journeymen QBs look like All-Pros (remember Dan Orlovsky?). Chung's return to the lineup for the Buffalo game settled down the defense, and it bodes well for the playoffs that they kept pass plays in front of them in that game. 

Most Improved Defensive Player: Kyle Arrington
Honorable Mention: None 

In 2010, I wrote that any NFL wide receiver versus Arrington was a mismatch in the receiver's favor. What a difference a year makes. Arrington tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions, and he was thrown at less and less often as teams tried to avoid him later in the year.

His aggressive style is better suited to man-coverage; but without another man-corner, he had to play zone more. But it didn't matter -- the results speak for themselves. He's a lot like Wes Welker: an undrafted free agent who works hard to make the absolute most of his abilities, and who won't quit trying no matter the situation. 

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Andre Carter
Honorable Mention: None 

Carter for all the reasons detailed above.

No one else because the rest of the free agent signings, draft picks, and trades didn't work out well enough. 

The Special Teams 

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Matthew Slater
Honorable Mention: Zoltan Mesko, Niko Koutouvides 

Slater gets the nod because he led the team in special teams tackles for the second straight year. And as special teams captain, he really did set the tone for one of the better units in the NFL. He never worked out as a receiver (one catch this season), but he's a demon on coverage teams.

Mesko had a great year, finishing fourth in the NFL in net average and pinning 42% of his kicks inside the 20 yard line. The yards-per-return against him are slightly up from last year, but he improved in every other way: average (43.2 to 46.5), net average (38.4 to 41.5), kicks inside the 20 (19 to 24), fair catches induced (14 to 18), and fewer touchbacks (from 5 down to 3).

Koutouvides has the second-most tackles on special teams, despite being signed halfway through the season. 

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Zoltan Mesko
Honorable Mention: Tracy White 

Mesko for all the reasons detailed above. Also, he handled his field-goal holding duties flawlessly, and that operation was not perfect last year.

White was the perfect compliment to Slater, the two of them fed off each other all year, celebrating each other's accomplishments and then trying to outdo each other the next play. White ended up third in special teams tackles. 

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: Danny Aiken
Honorable Mention: Niko Koutouvides 

Aiken is the fourth long snapper the Patriots have used in two years, and he appears to be a keeper. He only had one bad snap all year, and he pitched in with five special teams tackles. It's a shame he isn't versatile enough to fill in for the center; the Patriots used four players at that position in 2011.

Koutouvides was a nice addition, no matter how much he struggled at linebacker.

So there you have it; the coveted regular-season awards.  Maybe next year I'll do a 10th anniversary "All Your Patriots" team.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
13-3!
&
0-0!

PPS.  Trivia Answer: Tully Banta-Cain has 10 sacks for the Patriots in 2009.

Top 5 Patriots Stories of 2011

It was a tumultuous 2011 in the NFL. The Detroit Lions in the playoffs for the first time this century, the Green Bay Packers drive for immortality derailed by a non-playoff team with an interim coach (Kansas City), the San Francisco 49ers improved by at least six wins while the Indianapolis Colts dropped by at least seven, and the once-mighty NFC East stumbled to the finish with no better than 9-7 taking the crown.

No surprise that the New England Patriots provided a beacon of consistency in a league gone mad. Despite finally losing a game to the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots wrapped up another division title early. And with a come-from-behind win over the Miami Dolphins last weekend, they nailed down a first-round playoff bye and can lock up the #1 AFC seed with a victory over the Bills this weekend.

However, 2011 was not all sunshine and adulation in New England. Head Coach Bill Belichick’s personnel decisions were questioned like never before, the defense has given up more yards than any other team, and some commentators wondered if there were too many “Yes Men” on the coaching staff.

With both naughty and nice things in mind, here are the top Patriots stories of 2011.

Story #1: Jets Beat Patriots in Playoffs

The Patriots rolled into the 2010 post-season. A 14-2 record gave them the #1 AFC seed; they won their last eight games, and beat six consecutive playoff teams (including a 45-3 dismantling of the New York Jets). Quarterback Tom Brady was on an NFL record streak of 348 passes without an interception, and his receiving corps rounded into shape nicely after the departure of Randy Moss.

None of that mattered. The Jets picked off Brady early and played mistake-free football in a 28-21 win that bounced the Patriots out of the playoffs. The teams appeared to reverse roles. New England turned the ball over, blew a crucial fake punt, and refused to run for three quarters against a defense that dared them to run.

After the regular-season loss, Jets head coach Rex Ryan had told Belichick that he’d see him in the playoffs. The Patriots' head coach reportedly just stared at him, dumbfounded. And “dumb” is how Belichick coached when Ryan’s prediction came true and they met in January.

The sting of that loss informed multiple off-season changes and decisions about how to improve the team. In fact, it led directly to the second Patriots second-biggest story of 2011...

Story #2: Robert Kraft Helps End Lockout

After seeing another year of Brady’s career end without a championship, Patriots owner Robert Kraft was clearly determined to have a complete season and a shot at another Super Bowl. And with labor negotiations breaking down, we now know that Kraft stepped in to restart them and see them through to a successful end. Both DeMaurice Smith (head of the Players Association) and Jeff Saturday (player representative of the rival Indianapolis Colts) said that without Kraft the season would have been lost.

The players respect Kraft as one of the few who view the owner-player relationship as a partnership. He built his franchise around high-profile stars and serviceable role-players groomed from within the organization, and Kraft has always worked with players on their personal charitable endeavors. And despite recent claims that he holds too firm a line on salaries, the players know that at least ten times Kraft paid players the top salary for their positions.*

Even though Kraft deflected praise after the the agreement was ratified, it’s clear the 2011 season would have been shortened or canceled outright without his work behind the scenes. And the fact that he did it all while shuttling back-and-forth from a wife who was dying makes it all the more impressive.

3. Big-name Busts, Little-known Gems

Once the lockout ended, the football world was abuzz over the Patriots' big-name acquisitions. They traded for defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth and receiver Chad Ochocinco, the former a reclamation project and the latter a player long coveted by Belichick. Unfortunately, the Patriots' head man couldn’t work his magic with either player.

Haynesworth played better in the pre-season than he did once the real games started. He missed several weeks with a lingering back injury, and though he showed flashes of his pocket-crushing past, he finished with a disappointing three tackles and was cut after dogging it in the Patriots' 24-20 loss to the Giants. Reportedly he argued with defensive coaches and was sent to the showers early.

Ochocinco never learned the offensive terminology well enough to be a factor. He continues to miss routes and barely gets any playing time. He also caused at least one Brady interception and has had words with the Patriots quarterback in most every game. All reports are that Ochocinco works extremely hard, staying after practice every day to learn more. But aside from a few first down curls or longer fly routes, he can’t master the intricacies of the Patriots' quick-hit offense.

On the other side of the ledger, the Patriots got great value from mid-tier trades and signings. Defensive end Andre Carter was a high-motor player, who not only got to the passer (10 sacks) but held the edge well against the run and reportedly played almost 80% of the defensive snaps. (Unfortunately, he is injured and out for the playoffs.)

And offensive lineman Brian Waters was a late addition to the roster. He stepped right in on opening day, no doubt helped by working in a similar system for the Kansas City Chiefs, and he has been the team’s second-best lineman all year. Waters is great at run blocking, and learned the protection schemes well enough to help cover for the four centers the Patriots have used this year. And no surprise: Waters is on his way to his sixth Pro Bowl after an outstanding season.

Story #4: Rob Gronkowski Achieves Superstardom

Tight end Rob Gronkowski’s historic 2011 season can’t be overplayed. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, but this season he tore up NFL defenses in ways no tight end ever has.

Gronkowski’s size and strength make him a match-up nightmare and allow him to get separation before catch and shed tacklers after. He is far and away Brady’s favorite target in the red zone, as evidenced by his 15 touchdown catches, an NFL record for tight ends. And Profootballfocus.com ranks Gronkowski as the best run-blocking tight end in the game. To borrow a phrase, he is the total package.

In addition to the touchdown record, Gronkowski’s 1,219 yards rank seventh in the NFL -- and he’s just 72 yards short of setting the record for tight ends. Also, his 82 receptions are fifth in the league this year -- all the more impressive given that he shares the field with NFL leader Wes Welker (116 catches).

Gronkowski possesses acute football instincts, learning the offense right away (obviously not easy -- just ask Ochocino). And he and Aaron Hernandez (in concert with new tight ends coach Brian Ferentz) turned this once lackluster position into one of immense strength. Gronkowski is headed for his first Pro Bowl this year, and if he stays healthy, it will be an annual pilgrimage he will make for years to come.

Story #5: Belichick Under Fire

The fact that about 25 of the 32 teams would drop their head coach in a minute to hire Belichick did not insulate him from criticism this year. In fact, he survived more venom this year than any since Spygate, owing to the yearlong struggle in pass defense and some of the cuts made to start the year. Once an untouchable icon in New England, some rust started to show on his legacy.

Media pundits assailed Belichick for drafting poorly and for too many free agent misses. They faulted him for sticking with a “value signing” system in the face of supposed evidence that it hasn’t worked in years. And as evidence of poor drafting they cited the pre-season release of safeties Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders, corner Jonathan Wilhite, and receiver Brandon Tate.

Maybe more shocking were rumblings that the coaching staff had too many Belichick clones and that the man himself had begun to lose his touch on defense. Exhibit A was the team’s 32nd ranking in passing and overall defense, and Exhibit B was their poor offensive performances to start games (thought to show a lack of innovative preparation). It was theorized that his staff didn’t have the football knowledge or the guts to say “No” to the man who taught them everything they knew about the game.

The truth, of course, is more complex than those oversimplifications. Every upper-echelon team cuts the majority of their draft picks; there isn’t enough room on a talented roster for every young talent.. And at least the Patriots don’t overpay free agents, so if they don’t work out they can cut them without impacting the salary cap.

As for the defense, it is true the team ranks 32nd in yards allowed (note: the Packers rank 31st) and 24th in opponent passer rating (88.1). But the team is 14th in scoring defense (21.4 points per game), outperforming the Bears, Broncos, Jets and the Lions. Also, the Patriots are 3rd in turnover differential (+14), and they excel at stopping teams in the red zone.

But no matter where you fall on the pro- or anti-Belichick scale, the once unquestioned head coach caught a lot more heat this season than he has in years.

Underplayed Story: Continued Dominance

One underplayed story of 2011 is the Patriots somehow remaining dominant in the AFC. The Colts lost their quarterback and the season fell apart. The Baltimore Ravens looked unbeatable one week and unfathomable the next. The Houston Texans won their division but enter the playoffs with uncertainty at quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Patriots handily but look like long shots to win their own division. And the Jets, who knocked New England out of last year’s playoffs, are even longer shots to make the post-season.

Meanwhile, the Patriots chugged along -- winning the AFC East for the ninth time in eleven years. They can secure the #1 seed with a win over Buffalo this weekend, and since  Belichick came to town, only once has any AFC East team won more games than the Patriots.

The team no longer plays the kind of defense it did in 2003-2004. But despite all the personnel miscues, the drain of coaching talent, and the pressure of being the team everyone wants to beat, the Patriots are in position to make another deep run in the playoffs. Their record speaks for itself, and it is especially underplayed when a 12-4 or 13-3 season and a first-round playoff bye registers barely 5% of the local sports coverage.

Summary

In a nutshell, those are the five biggest (and the one underplayed) New England Patriots stories of 2011. Stay glued to your television this January, you are bound to see the first of the “Top 5” for 2012 one weekend coming up. It might even happen in February, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

A safe and happy New Year to you all, and thank you for stopping by.

- Scott

* For those of you scoring at home, here is the list of players Kraft signed to the richest deals (at the time) for their positions: Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Tom Brady (twice), Rosevelt Colvin, Adalius Thomas, Vince Wilfork, and Logan Mankins.

Patriots Smoke Bills 49-21

The Patriots overcame an early 21-point deficit and ran away with a 49-21 win over Buffalo. The victory earns the Pats the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, assuring them of home field in any playoff games except the Super Bowl. They'd already earned a first-round bye -- their next game is January 14 at 8:00 pm, so set yourself a reminder.

For the second consecutive time, the visitor in a Pats-Bills game jetted out to a three-touchdown advantage, only to ride poor play and turnovers to an eventual loss. The Patriots defense looked horrible in the first quarter. They put no pressure on the quarterback, weren't close to any receivers, and gave up big yards on the ground. But the game came down to adjustments -- the Patriots made 'em and the Bills didn't.

The Bills benching of wideout Stevie Johnson for a foolish "excessive celebration" penalty was a big game-changer. He left after two straight scoring drives, and the Bills were outscored 49-7 the rest of the way. The Patriots biggest defensive adjustment was letting the Bills run more and going into four- and five-deep shells to keep plays in front of them. The strange alignment sometimes left them with no one in the linebacker position; but it worked.

As with all recent games, it started ugly. The Bills led 21-0 after 15:00, which means the Patriots have been outscored 51-7 in the first quarters of their last three games. But as usual, they settled down, made adjustments, and Tom Brady cleaned up his miscues in a comeback win. But it's probably not a good idea to try this in the playoffs -- those teams might not turn the ball over and go into offensive shells so the Patriots can come back and win. Just saying. 

Brady sported a 94.1 QB rating at the half, but it ballooned to 113.8 by game's end. He's been off early in recent games of late, and unfortunately his errors lingered into the third quarter this week. He finished with three touchdowns and an interception, giving him 39 on the year (against only 12 INTs). But the first two drives of the second half had passes that were off-target and some mis-communication and/or bad footing by his receivers.

Perhaps Brady's shoulder bothered him. But if that wasn't better by the third quarter it probably wouldn't have allowed him to finish the game with three touchdown drives. It's a puzzle -- one that the Patriots have two weeks to figure out before it can come back to bite them.

The season-long search for a third receiver to compliment Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski is officially over. Tight end Aaron Hernandez had 7 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, and combined with Gronkowski (8 for 108, 2 TDs), and Welker (6 for 51), they accounted for 87.5% of the catches. The trio was also targeted on 88.9% of the Patriots pass attempts. Hernandez broke open the offense, and once the Bills started worrying about him, it opened things up for Welker and Gronkowski. Two receivers can be defended; three makes the Patriots much more dangerous in the post-season.

And speaking of receivers, how about running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis topping Welker in the yardage category. Green-Ellis had 1 catch, a screen pass that he ran for 53 yards. He didn't do as much in the running game (7 carries for 22 yards), but he got two touchdowns and was old reliable again. The new guy, Stevan Ridley (15 for 81 yards) was more trick-or-treat this week, getting stopped for no gain a few times, but showing great burst others. Oh, and he had his first NFL fumble -- welcome to the big leagues, rookie -- no do another lap!

The offensive line struggled again; obviously injuries are taking their toll. Buffalo isn't known for a great pass rush, but they sacked Brady four times and hit him three others. And without Logan Makins they've lost the ability to line up in a running formation and gain even a yard. The Pats will have to count on deception until they get Mankins back; although now that they have Matt Light back, at least they have players at their natural positions.

The linebackers sucked out loud in this game. Jerod Mayo got beaten repeatedly one-on-one by the running back, and the one time he knocked a pass away it was mostly blind luck. Rob Ninkovich reportedly played, but not a single play stands out enough to remember it. And we all know Dane Fletcher is limited physically, but this week he got beaten by scheme and being out of position. A week to forget for this group.

The defensive line got pushed around a lot and got little pressure early in the game. Of course it got a lot easier when the Bills had to pass the ball every down, and they ended the day with 2 sacks (by Mark Anderson and Brandon Deaderick) and 3 QB hits. However, they allowed Bills quarterback Ryan FitzPatrick to break the pocket and extend plays. It didn't hurt them today, but the playoffs will have lots of passers who can end your season on plays like that.

And in the secondary... well, it'll take some explaining.

First off, Patrick Chung returned to safety, and he was joined by James Ihedgibo and (cornerback) Devin McCourty. So starting cornerback Kyle Arrington worked with Antwaun Moulden, Sterling Moore, and (wide receiver) Julian Edelman.

Why all the shifting around, you ask? Here is my best guess.

The coaches know their corners are bad no matter what they do. But they realized they were getting killed by bad safety play -- too many big plays up the sidelines. So they put a healed Chung at safety with their best athlete, McCourty. McCourty's looked better in recent weeks, but he's been very bad at corner, so he's probably better suited to safety at the moment. And Edelman played the slot receiver because he has the quickness and toughness to cover those guys.

The strange thing is, it worked pretty well. The Pats gave up a long pass interference penalty, and there was a 29-yard sideline route in the second quarter. But other than that, there were a lot fewer long passes and hardly any Bills receivers being chased by both a short-coverage corner and an out-of-position safety.

No one knows for sure if the Patriots will continue this in the playoffs, but it's an option. For weeks opponents have gashed them with big plays, and the safeties got beaten over and over. So maybe they found a better solution, one that at least makes other teams work for their yards and points. Or maybe it's something they can try if things don't go well to start a game in the playoffs.

You're probably wondering how well the shifting around worked. Well, Moore had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), Moulden had one, McCourty had one, and Kyle Arrington had one that was called back on a penalty. As a group, they had four passes defended, too. They gave up the pass interference call and a few illegal contact penalties, but nothing egregious. So overall, it worked pretty well; once they got the kinks worked out in the second quarter.

The coaches get props for the new defensive scheme and for recognizing and using Stevan Ridley more in this game. But they get points off for another poor offensive game plan to start the game. They've been shut out in the first quarter two weeks in a row, and five times this year. (Trivia question: can you name all five opponents... answer below.) 

So where does that leave us? Resting for a week and nervously waiting for January 14 to get here. Brady might need some rest, and reports are that Mankins might need time to heal, too. It also gives them two weeks to change what they do to start the game, and with luck, to score more points early in the playoff game. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Kyle Arrington hasn't intercepted a pass since November 21, and yet he tied for the NFL lead in that category with seven on the season. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The only scary team in the AFC is Baltimore, and if we're playing them it's in the AFC Championship Game. I'm alright with that."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-3!
(Just like I told you way back in September:
http://tinyurl.com/8886pwy)

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
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These Steelers, Giants, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills shut out the Patriots in the first quarter of games this season.

Patriots Escape With 27-24 Win

The Patriots spotted Miami a 17-point lead, then roared back with five straight scoring drives to eke out a 27-24 victory. The win gives them a first-round bye in the playoffs, and if they beat Buffalo on New Year's Day, they will own the #1 seed in the AFC. They will also avenge an early-season loss to the Bills, and perhaps start another win-streak against them.

You've probably read elsewhere that it was a game of two halves: 17-0 Miami to start, and 27-7 Patriots to finish. True enough, but it was more about effective Patriots adjustments than bad play by the Dolphins. Running back Reggie Bush ran 16 times for 81 yards in the first half; but the Patriots formation changes limited him to 6 carries and 32 yards in the last second. Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a world-beater after 30 minutes but was just beaten down in the last 30:00:

Moore's first half: 10 for 19, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (7 yards)
Moore's second half: 6 for 13, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks (21 yards)

The Patriots biggest defensive adjustments were to funnel the running game toward the middle, and to run-blitz and go to the quarterback if it turned out to be a pass play. This was the third week in a row where they had to stop overreacting to run-action fakes, and they have to get that worked out earlier in playoff games.

Pats QB Tom Brady got pretty beaten up in the first half, owing to a make-shift offensive line. Matt Light was a late scratch, and the shifting up front gave the Pats some problems in the first half. But they made enough adjustments to get it going in the second half, aided by the quick-strike no-huddle.

No time for a detailed breakdown of the game, but here are the trends as we head into the last game of the regular season.

1.  Devin McCourty is coming on strong. In the first 10.5 games, he had 2 passes defended and no interceptions. In the last 2.5 games, he had 9 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 interception called back on a penalty. He stunk up the joint for most of the season, but if he comes through in the playoffs, all will be forgiven.

2.  They need Patrick Chung for the playoffs. Safety play is their biggest problem now, and the current mish-mash of players are great against the run and do their best with limited talent. But in the passing game, they commit too early, giving the quarterback easy decisions down the field. And their bad angles make for lots of tackles after the catch but not many broken up passes.

Chung is their only solution here; they cut James Sanders before the season, and they have so little talent at safety that receiver Matthew Slater fills in.

3.  They might have to adjust formations for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Teams seem determined to take them both away, and that is much more difficult when they line up on opposite sides of the formation. On the same side of the field, you can cover them both effectively with three defenders. But on opposite sides, you have to commit four (two on each player), which opens things up for Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and the running backs.

4.  Brady injured his shoulder, but if he can go in the playoffs, he has to be sharper early in the game. The Patriots averaged just 4.0 points in the first quarters of their last 10 games, down from 8.4 points per game prior to that. To help the offense and give Brady more time to work into the flow of the game, offensive coordinator should work in some more running plays and perhaps go up-tempo earlier.

5.  Julian Edelman will be more valuable on defense than offense once the post-season starts. His size and quickness make him better-suited to cover slot receivers than the current Patriots linebackers. And Edelman has been an afterthought on offense; so maybe he should spend all of his practice time working with the defense instead.

6.  Offensive line health is key. The O-line had trouble against Miami early on, but they made the proper adjustments and got things straightened out. But the situation is dire -- they are down to their third and fourth centers of the season, and with Matt Light out last game, had to shift a guard to tackle and that made them weaker all along the line.

One more injury could prove fatal to their playoff chances.

7.  Stevan Ridley has young, fresh legs -- use them. Ridley shows great burst, and still hasn't missed more than a few blocking assignments all year. The Patriots should use him in the hurry-up offense. Given more space to work with, Ridley could gash defenses and make them play the run, even in the shotgun/spread formation.

8.  Unsung hero of the year so far: Zoltan Mesko. Because the Patriots score so much, Mesko doesn't have as many punts as the league average. But his numbers are eye-popping on only 55 kicks: 42% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line; 31% result in a fair catch; and his 41.4 yard average is fourth in the NFL. Also, it was noted on a recent broadcast that the longest punt return against him is 26 yards.

Additionally, Mesko handles his field-goal holder duties flawlessly, despite working with four different long snappers in two years. In crucial situations this year, Mesko booted long punts to turn around field position. All in all, not bad work for a guy who hardly gets on the field. 

So where does that leave us? The victory guarantees the Patriots a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home playoff game. A win over Buffalo next week gives them home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game won't be easy; Buffalo has little left to lose, and would like nothing better than to sweep the team that beat them 15 straight times before this season. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By the end of the weekend, it will be 143 regular-season games since the Patriots sported a losing record. They lost to Buffalo on opening day in 2003, to fall to 0-1. Since that time, they have never had a record below .500 at any time during any season.

Note: if you don't think that's impressive, the second longest such streak in NFL history was 96 games, which means the Patriots streak is 49% longer than the second best streak ever ( (trivia question: can you name the team?). 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sorry, I don't have anything to add this week -- my blogger friend slacked off instead of sending me an update."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were never below .500 between 1988 and 1993.

Patriots Best Broncos, 41-23

The Patriots proved their mettle yesterday and came away with a 41-23 victory in Denver. They improved to 11-3 and clinched another AFC East title, and they currently hold the #1 seed in the AFC (pending the Pittsburgh game tonight). Up next the Buffalo Bills come to Foxboro for a rematch on Christmas Eve day, and the Bills are reeling, losers of seven straight after a fast start to the season.

The 41-23 final score does not indicate how nerve-wracking the first half was. The Broncos ran the ball at will early on and scored on three consecutive drives to lead 16-7 after the first 20 minutes. But the battle-tested Patriots rode three turnovers and good second-half adjustments to a 34-7 thrashing the rest of the way. The young Broncos wilted in the spotlight, with fumbles by three players in their second or third years in the league.

When the other team runs for 167 yards in the first quarter there are lots of culprits. But the one who stood out was linebacker Rob Ninkovich. He lost outside contain on at least four long runs and then inexplicably let Denver running backs break *inside* after that. It was ugly watching him play in the first half. He did have a fumble recovery and in the second half got a loooong sack (28 yards); but while blitzing the Denver quarterback he let Tim Tebow outside the pocket for big plays. All around a disappointing day from a usually solid-but-not-spectacular player.

As for the rest of the defense, it was a tale of two halves. The linebackers went for too many play-action fakes in the first half, but played better when they could ignore the run because of the big lead. The defensive line couldn't lay a glove on Denver's running backs early, but run-blitzed to clog things up in the second half. And the defensive backfield was left high-and-dry early on, as the front seven got repeatedly gashed and the safeties and corners broke coverage to make tackles. But in the second half, they mostly held their coverage long enough and were pretty tight on the receivers.

And to put it bluntly about the secondary, they are in big trouble if they don't get Patrick Chung back for the playoffs. The current safety play is the worst since Bob Kraft bought the team; too many bad angles and incorrect guesses (though in fairness the tackling is okay). On third-and-18 late in the game, Sergio Brown covered no one while Denver wideout Demaryius Thomas ran a deep sideline pattern for 39 yards. On the play Devin McCourty expected help, and on the replay it was obvious that help was supposed to be Brown. 

Chung has been out for a while, and the Patriots have survived against lesser teams in his absence. But the team won't be going anywhere in the playoffs without improved safety play, and their only chance at that is a return by Chung.

Fortunately for the defense the offense converted three turnovers into points. After a fumble (forced by Ron Brace, recovered by Ninkovich), the Patriots settled for a field goal when a quick-pass to Aaron Hernandez in the end zone was just short. That was emblematic of quarterback Tom Brady's first half, when he had a few off-target passes and a middling 57% completions. But he drove them for a touchdown after a great play by linebacker Mark Anderson (strip-sack of Tebow *and* fumble recovery). And just before the half, a fumble on a late punt gave them a gift three points.

The Patriots started fast, with a 5-play, 80-yard touchdown that ended with a beautifully designed play on Chad Ochocinco's first Patriots score (33 yards along the left sideline). As mentioned, Brady wasn't sharp at first, and the offense stagnated after that initial drive. But the turnovers turned things around, and once they had the lead, Brady sliced the Denver defense the rest of the game. He had nine incompletions in the first half, and just two in the second half, and ended the day 23-34, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Hernandez was the receiving star of the day -- 9 grabs for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense obviously didn't want to get beaten by Wes Welker (4 for 41) or Rob Gronkowski (4 for 53), and that's the beauty of having so many offensive weapons. Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski can be covered one-on-one by linebackers or safeties, so the opponent has to choose whom to cover with a cornerback and hope the other one doesn't kill them. In this case, Hernandez was more than happy to benefit from double-teams on Welker and Gronkowski.

For the first time in a while, the leading rusher wasn't BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He couldn't get anything going, so the Pats brought in rookie Stevan Ridley and his patient style exposed gaps in the Denver D. He ran 11 times for 65 yards, and gave just the right change of pace to keep the Broncos honest and slow down the pass rush just enough. Danny Woodhead (7 for 40) had some nifty moves in traffic, and Brady had a few QB sneaks (one for a touchdown).

The coaching staff did a great job of adjusting this week. The first few series saw a lot of Denver pressure on Brady. So they used running backs and tight ends to chip the Denver pass rushers, and that calmed things down up front. And in the second half, they run-blitzed most of the time, and with a few very notable exceptions contained Tebow in the pocket. It was clear Tebow wasn't going to take chances with the ball, so with the pressure and his inexperience, he had a very bad second half. 

So where does that leave us? 11-3 and winners of the AFC East, the Patriots now control whether or not they have a first-round playoff bye. If they win their last two games, they will rest the first week of the playoffs. And if they do that, and Pittsburgh loses one of their last three games, the Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC.

This week against Buffalo is less risky than the last game against Miami; but Buffalo already beat the Patriots once this year and they play better against the Pats in Foxboro. Hopefully the team won't overlook the Bills, and to that end, Bill Belichick has almost certainly reminded them about the 34-31 shootout they lost. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 250 rushing twice -- and won both games. They gave up 252 yesterday, and the other game was in 2002, can you name the opponent that day (answer below)? 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked to me like the Broncos were overwhelmed by the moment. Three fumbles by three young players; I think that tells you they were nervous."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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Despite giving up 256 yards on the ground, the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins on the last day of the season in 2002, 27-24.

Patriots Skin Washington, 34-27

The Patriots survived another close one but came out on top of Washington, 34-27. The win kept them two games ahead of the Jets in the AFC East and one win (or a Jets loss) from claiming another division crown. (Note: I misinformed you last week -- the Patriots did not clinch the AFC East title with their win. My apologies.) Up next is a match with Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Denver, which if you ask the six teams he's beaten will be no easy task.

Yesterday's game in Washington was back and forth, and featured more scoring by Mike Shanahan's charges than many expected. But after three quarters of high-powered offense, the teams went 0-for the fourth quarter and traded red zone interceptions to effectively end the game. Tom Brady giveth, and Jerod Mayo taketh away, and the Patriots escaped with their fifth consecutive win.

One Patriots player was a microcosm of the entire Patriots defense, as that unit played almost exactly the way corner Devin McCourty did as an individual. Both gave up too many big gains in the passing game. Both stuffed the inside run but lost contain and missed assignments on outside rushes and misdirection/trick plays. And both took bad drops and angles that gave Washington too much room in zone coverage. But in the end both McCourty and the defense made big plays at critical times to stop drives and force turnovers or punts.

McCourty allowed three big plays to former Patriots receivers Donte Stallworth (51 and 23 yards) and Jabar Gaffney (23 yards). But he also notched three passes defended and eight tackles on the day, including plays that forced punts on two of the last three Washington drives. The Patriots need to see more of the latter from McCourty as they drive toward the playoffs.

His secondary mates didn't fare very well at all. Safety James Ihedigbo blew coverage on two touchdowns (one trick play, one "pick" play), and Kyle Arrington had six tackles but did little to stop passes from being completed. As a unit, they gave up 15.1 yards a catch, a number that usually loses you the game. It is probably enough to say that wide receiver Julian Edelman had the second best coverage on the day, and that the only non-McCourty pass knock-downs were by linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Tracy White).

Speaking of linebackers, they are just barely holding that unit together. Mayo is fine now, looking fully recovered from his injury. He followed-up his first career interception last week with his second yesterday -- a game-saving INT as Washington was driving for a tying score. He topped the team with eight tackles and even got some pressure on the quarterback.

Rob Ninkovich is okay, but seems overmatched in pass coverage and trying to hold the edge against the run. It was nice to see Dane Fletcher back, but they really need Brandon Spikes to return. He isn't great, but he gives the unit an intangible stability and attitude. The press overblows how well Spikes plays, but whenever he's out there, Mayo plays better and they seem to cover the mid-level passing game a lot more effectively.

Along the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love (in concert with Mayo, McCourty, and Fletcher) did a really nice job clogging up runs through the middle. The problems came with the classic Shanahan "stretch play" around end. Andre Carter and Mark Anderson were forced past the quarterback and neutralized by the stretch play too often.

Carter did come up with an important forced fumble (recovered by Wilfork for his first career touchdown). But if the Patriots don't want to get run over next week, they will have to do better forcing the run back inside. Note: both Brandon Deaderick and Shawn Ellis did fine in spot duty; though the team probably expected more from Ellis this season.

The offense called 40 pass plays and just 18 rushes. In one way it made sense; they averaged 16.2 yards a catch for the game. But in another way it made no sense at all. Tom Brady and his receivers (Deion Branch and Wes Welker specifically) had communication problems early in the game. And Brady missed a wide open Danny Woodhead on an easy check-down -- all of which left him under 50% completions at the half.

The passing attack eventually got in sync, and combined with the no-huddle, the pace was lightning fast (average scoring drive was just 2:53). Tom Brady's stats were wonderful as usual (22 of 37 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But the one interception was crucial, as the Patriots could have iced the game with a field goal and only needed to avoid that turnover. I heard he had words with the offensive coordinator after that; maybe there's a news story posted somewhere about that.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to be the Chuck Norris of Patriots receivers, an unstoppable force that appears to dominate effortlessly. He had 6 catches for 160 yards and grabbed 2 touchdown passes for the sixth time this year, which leads the entire NFL (trivia question: name the player in second place with four such games this season, answer below). Welker was his usual indispensable self (7-86, 1 touchdown).

The other tight end, Aaron Hernandez, diversified the passing game with 5 for 84. And Chad Ochocinco got his requisite one catch (for an important first down), and that was about it for the passing game. Still a little too dependent on a few receivers, but very effective yesterday.

And you can't have an effective passing game without at least good offensive line play. Which is what the Patriots got, good O-line play, not great, not bad, just good. The O-line allowed a little too much pressure (1 sack, 6 quarterback hits) and didn't open up many rushing lanes (except for Woodhead's shotgun runs). They do have the injury excuse; they had only seven offensive linemen active for the game, including rookies Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder (who started).

The running game isn't really worth mentioning; so I'll be brief. Danny Woodhead worked well out of the shotgun (8 rushes for 41 yards), but you know you can't run when you bring in 35 year-old Kevin Faulk to give the running attack a shot in the arm. And no matter what they think, the Patriots can't line up in a power formation and run the ball against any decent defense. So they should probably stop trying -- deception works much better for them. 

Special teams contributed a huge play early when Zoltan Mesko booted a punt that was downed inside the five yard-line by Matthew Slater. That turned into a fumble in the end zone and a New England touchdown; which is big in a game you win by seven points. Other than that, Julian Edelman had a nice punt return, and the kickoffs were plenty deep enough. But most of the field goals were easily make-able, so nothing special there.

In the battle of coaching wits, it appeared that Mike Shanahan won this round. He always gives Belichick a tough game, and if he had better talent (you know, better than a 4-9 record would indicate), he might have pulled this one out. And there was the argument on the sideline, something between a well-known quarterback and an unknown offensive coordinator. Not sure the details, but I'll have to check into it. 

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and one game from an AFC East crown, that's where! The game next week is interesting, because the Patriots excel at beating teams with one-dimensional offenses, which is mostly what the Denver Broncos have. However, the game against Washington showed the Pats defense is vulnerable to outside runs, which his where the Broncos excel. An intriguing one for sure -- especially when you consider how badly the Patriots have played in Denver over the years.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Kansas City Chiefs versus the AFC East this year: 0-4 and outscored 141-23. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "How bad is the Pats secondary? Two linebackers and a defensive lineman are tied for second on the team with 2 interceptions each. That's pretty bad." (Trivia question #2: name those players, answer below.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

PPS. Trivia Answers:
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Answer #1: Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions started the season with four consecutive games with two touchdown catches (and he has no such games since then).

Answer #2: Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo are tied for the second-most interceptions on the Patriots.

Patriots Hold Off Late Rally For 31-24 Victory

Don't let the final score fool you; the Patriots dominated most of the day and sent the Colts back to Indianapolis with a 31-24 loss and an embarrassing 0-12 record. The win puts the Patriots one win (or one loss by the New York Jets) away from their fourteenth division title, and keeps them in the race for the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. Next up is a road trip to the nation's capital for a date with the boys from Washington.

Indy is so bad this season, they've only held the lead against one team that currently sports a winning record, and that lead lasted only 4:05 of game time. (Trivia question: name the team -- answer below.) And the Patriots did what good teams do when they play bad ones; they dominated and built up a four-touchdown lead. Unfortunately, they let off the offensive accelerator and allowed the Colts to rally back to a one-score loss.

Ill-timed penalties and costly turnovers didn't help the Colts' cause; but it didn't help to be playing one of the top teams in the AFC. Tom Brady was his usual magnificent self (29 of 38, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 115.4 rating), Wes Welker caught all 11 passes thrown his way (for 114 yards), and budding superstar Dan Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns -- and he ran for a third.

Brady spread the ball around to seven receivers, completing important throws to Deion Branch and even getting one to Chad Ochocinco and another to newcomer Tiquan Underwood. The running backs gained just 73 yards total (3.0 yards per carry), and the load was also spread around pretty evenly among Stevan Ridley (8 carries for 33 yards), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6 for 14), and Danny Woodhead (4 for 12).

The offensive line did a good job in pass protection, in concert with short passing routes and quick releases. Not much of a running game to speak of; but they did keep Brady mostly clean on the day. And their third center of the year, Nick MacDonald... well, he didn't screw up any of the snaps, so that's good.

On defense, Vince Wilfork dominated inside, with 10 tackles and a sack. Newly signed defensive back Nate Jones had 9 tackles, and wide receiver Matthew Slater tied tackling machine Jerod Mayo for third on the team with 7 (note: Mayo added a spectacular interception). Slater played safety for much of the game, and did a poor job in coverage but apparently a good job tackling.

Corner Devin McCourty returned from injury, but to mixed reviews. He gave up completions on plays where he was in position to knock the ball away, but it is his first game back, so he deserves some slack. At least he isn't coming back closer to the playoffs; which would magnify every mistake -- the timing of his return gives him a few weeks to round into shape.

Not much pass rush this week. Outside rushers Andre Carter and Mark Anderson totaled 3 tackles, 0 sacks, and 0 QB pressures between them. Oft-rushing linebacker Rob Ninkovich did better all by himself -- adding a sack and a QB pressure to his own 3 tackles. Overall, still no sign the Pats will have much of a pass rush in the post-season; unless they get better play in the secondary, and that depends on improvement by McCourty and the healthy return of safety Patrick Chung. 

Special teams have now recovered four consecutive onside kicks (including one called back for a penalty yesterday). Other than that, kicker Stephen Gostkowski had plenty of distance kicking with the wind and not enough against it. Punter Zoltan Mesko had an impressive 46.8 average; though he booted only one of them into the wind. And wide receiver (and defensive back) Julian Edelman makes very nifty moves on both punt and kickoff returns.

Nothing inspired about the coaching, except perhaps the experiment with Slater at safety. One hopes that doesn't mean Chung is out for the playoffs. 

So where does that leave us? As stated above, 9-3 and one win from a division title sounds like the right place to be in early-December. The game in Washington is unlikely to tell us much about the Patriots defense; but Mike Shanahan's crew has a good defense, so it's a chance for the Pats offense to test themselves again. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Colts QB Dan Orlovsky posted the best quarterback rating of his career (113.2). He'd never topped 100 before Sunday. 

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Can't verify this easily, but I believe Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a career high in tackles yesterday. He made two tackles, one on the Colts fumble, and the other on the Colts interception. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Packers and Niners get all the headlines, but the Pats clinch the AFC East with their next win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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The Colts led the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers for just over four minutes.