Patriots 30, Raiders 20 (9/8/2005)

Well, thankfully that was the first game of the year and the Raiders didn’t have their act together yet. The Patriots won a 30-20 decision over Oakland last Thursday, but it was the most uneven performance they’ve had in three years. The win puts the Pats in a first place tie with Miami and Buffalo (both surprise winners on Sunday) and begins the long journey to what we all hope will be a playoff run. Here’s how I saw things on Thursday.

The offense couldn’t run early, couldn’t pass in mid-game, and couldn’t put the Raiders away at any point. Problems with run blocking along the O-line will have to be corrected, though their pass protection was very good (zero sacks). Brady was his usual efficient self (24 for 38, 30 yards and 2 touchdowns), and Deion Branch and Troy Brown had big receiving days. Ben Watson’s two catches in the first half were crucial, gettin first downs that supplied the defense with time to make important adjustments after Oakland scored easily on their first drive.

The running game was pretty much non-existent. Corey Dillon was hit and dropped in the backfield more in this game than he was last season (perhaps a slight exaggeration), and only Kevin Faulk’s change of pace got anything going in the first half. Most of Dillon’s 63 yards came in garbage time, though he did power in for two touchdowns. The best thing I can say about the offense is they committed only two penalties and drew a boatload of them from the Raiders. And that statement isn’t the kind of praise I’m used to giving this offense. So they better get the O-line and play-calling in sync if they want to beat a much tougher Carolina team next week.

The defense played a very good game, but not a great one. They did give up a first-drive touchdown (first time in 35 games), but after that the Raiders scored only twice: on a long pass to Randy Moss; and on a 20 yard “drive” after a blocked punt. The D wasn’t without fault, having trouble with the run early on, but they got their sea legs under them in the second quarter and held the Raiders in check for the rest of the game. But it wasn't vintage Patriots defense because they forced only one turnover and missed opportunities for others, especially in the passing game.

Richard Seymour looked like a man possessed out there. Once the Pats switched to the 4-3 (midway through their second drive), he was like a one man wrecking crew, leading the team with 8 tackles, many of them in places you wouldn’t expect a defensive lineman to be. He and linemates Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Jarvis Green dominated the line of scrimmage after the switch to the 4-3, and that’s where the game was won. Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest are the only other players I felt were worthy of special mention, making several big plays each.

The linebackers and secondary were non-descript, double- and triple-covering Randy Moss and daring the Raiders to beat them with just about anyone else. In the second half, Raiders QB Kerry Collins looked lost, either finding no one open or no time to throw. And with the Patriot offense sputtering, it’s a good thing he was lost.

As for special teams, they need more work. Josh Miller pinned the Raiders twice with punts that stopped dead at the four yard line. But the punting unit also gave up a blocked kick that Oakland turned into a quick touchdown. Add to that the blocked extra point and special teams coach Brad Seeley will be a busy man this week.

The coaching staff acquitted themselves well, with a few questionable play calls on offense but some brilliant play design (I’m thinking specifically of the Corey Dillon screen pass and the Tim Dwight touchdown). Eric Mangini made quick and effective adjustments on defense, and the D never got beaten on the same play twice.

So where does that leave us? Well, the Pats have 10 days to prepare for a road game against the historically fast-starting Carolina Panthers. Guaranteed the Panthers won’t commit 16 penalties for anywhere near 149 yards – that is usually left to NFL doormats like Oakland. The Panthers run well and have a defense on par with New England’s, and as an added incentive, they lost their first game which means they’ll be after their first win of the season next Sunday. The game will likely come down to how the O-line handles the pass protection and the question of which QB plays better. Until then, the Patriots are tied for first place – so enjoy it.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Both Charlie and Romeo were missed in the first game, but I think the coaches we have can handle things just fine. I thought the offensive play-calling wasn’t quite as good, but it was close. And the defense didn’t come out with the same excellent plan, but the coaches made great adjustments and held the Raiders in check for the rest of the game.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

Patriots 2005 Season Preview (9/7/2005)

It all seems so old hat. Patriots win another Super Bowl, and they endure significant changes in the off-season – I think I read this same thing last year. The Pats had more coaching changes this year than ever, but they somehow maintained their core players for another possible playoff run. Here are my thoughts on how the old and new faces (coaches and players) will gel in 2005.

(As always, if you want to be dropped from this list, please email me.)

The Draft

The Patriots replaced Joe Andruzzi (gone to Cleveland) with Logan Mankins in the first round, and Mankins appears to be up to the challenge. In the pre-season, he looked good more often than lost. They added James Sanders and Ellis Hobbs to the oft-injured secondary (Hobbs can also return kickoffs). Hobbs has looked alternatively brilliant and bewildered, but his attitude could make him a real contributor.

Matt Cassel won the third QB job over Rohan Davey, based largely on his first pre-season game, when he ran and threw well. And finally, the team traded a second-round pick to Arizona for well-regarded cornerback Duane Starks. We didn’t see much of Starks in the pre-season, but I heard good things about his time in Arizona. I’ll be watching closely when #23 hits the field.

The Offense

By far the biggest change is the loss of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. The team didn’t elevate anyone to the job, preferring to do it by committee (reportedly tight ends coach Pete Mangurian will call the plays). I saw no ill effects of this change during pre-season, and I expect the Pats offense could improve production after bye weeks. The only knock on Weis was that the offense struggled the week after a bye, so new ideas in the practice schedule might improve performance.

Postcards sent to Joe Andruzzi, Adrian Klemm, Rohan Davey, or David Patten should not be addressed to Foxboro. All are gone, and all have been pretty well replaced. Rohan and Klemm weren’t great contributors, rookie Logan Mankins replaced Andruzzi, and David Patten was one of a group of receivers who were interchangeable to start with. Andre’ Davis (acquired via trade from Cleveland this summer) will take over for Patten without too much trouble. And a healthy Ben Watson at tight end will take pressure off the wideouts.

The team added Tim Dwight to take over returning punts, which should allow Troy Brown to be more like he was three years ago – though the secondary might miss him a bit ;) And the Pats added veteran depth at QB by signing local favorite Doug Flutie. He is better than any Patriot backup QB since Drew Bledsoe.

The Defense

Change, change, and more change. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel left for Cleveland, the Pats promoted defensive backs coach Eric Mangini to take his place. Lest you doubt what Mangini can do, remember he coached Troy Brown in the secondary and Brown had 3 INTs. I think Crennel will be missed more than Weis, because I think he called a better game than Weis (for reasons too lengthy to go into here – email me if you want a detailed explanation).

Tedy Bruschi is out for the year after suffering a mild stroke in February. His loss is without precedent in New England, because they’ve never had a player so important to a defense this good. Remember in 2002 the Patriots gave up 114 more yards rushing per game when Bruschi was injured during a four-game losing streak, and hat streak probably cost them a playoff spot.

Linebackers Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer retired, leaving the Patriots with a completely revamped inside linebacker corps. Monty Beisel and Chad Brown were brought in to help replace Bruschi and Johnson, and Mike Vrabel might see more time inside for the same reason. Brown is more of a pass-rusher, and Beisel might be the run stuffer that Ted Johnson was. It just won’t be easy to replace Bruschi.

However, the rest of the defense is better and deeper than last year. Ty Law left, but who cares – he missed half the year and all of the playoffs. And the Patriots added significant depth and talent to their secondary, so they shouldn’t have much trouble making up for the Law-lessness. Duane Starks and Chad Scott bring veteran stability, while second-year player Gus Scott and rookies Ellis Hobbs and James Sanders are the young guns of the secondary. The return of Randall Gay, Asante, Tyrone Poole, Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson could make this the best secondary the Pats have had under Bill Belichick.

On the defensive line, the only real news is that Marquis Hill and rookie Mike Wright showed flashes of skill and Vince Wilfork is another year more comfortable with the 3-4. With experienced backups, these guys should be fine.

The Special Teams

This one’s easy. Veteran Tim Dwight will return punts instead of Troy Brown, and rookie Ellis Hobbs or veteran Andre’ Davis will return kickoffs instead of Bethel Johnson and/or Kevin Faulk. The loss of Je’rod Cherry is mitigated by the return of Larry Izzo, and the kicking of Adam Vinatieri and Josh Miller and the coverage of said kicking have all been fine. File this under “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

The Coaches

It’s tough to know what the loss of Crennel and Weis will mean to the team. In the last 20 years, four teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls: two that kept both coordinators (1998 Broncos and 2003 Patriots); one that changed its defensive coordinator (1988 49ers); and one that changed both coordinators (1992 Cowboys). So obviously, you can do it any way you like, but the two constants on those teams were the head coach or the system. The Patriots kept both, and I think those are the most crucial elements to repeating. The flip side was the 1999 Rams, who changed their head coach and their defensive system – and gave up 471 points the next season.

When teams lose their coordinators, they often promote from within and weaken themselves at two positions. The Patriots may have avoided that by promoting Eric Mangini to DC but spreading around the OC chores among the existing staff. Only time will tell if the extra burden will drag the entire staff down, but know one thing: if it isn’t working, Bill Belichick will change it – even at mid-season if he has to. No one in the NFL is more willing to make changes whenever they have to be made to win. No one.

The Schedule

With all that in mind, here's my take on how the Patriots schedule will work out (as usual, broken down into quarters of the season):

I expect the Pats to start their first quarter of the year with a win over the Raiders in Foxboro. Oakland did nothing to improve their defense from last year, and they can’t score often enough against the Patriots to win. The Pats then have 10 days to prepare for a tilt at Carolina. When healthy, Carolina is a fast starter, but they've got an emotional division game with New Orleans the previous week. It looks like a close game, but I'll call it for the Panthers, with the motivation from the Super Bowl loss as the tie-breaker. The Pats then travel to Steeler country, but with Ben Roethlisberger showing signs of a sophomore slump and the running back situation uncertain, I see another Patriot victory. Next up is a home date with the Chargers. San Diego has short week (they play Sunday night) and travel across the country for the game, so it looks like another “W.”

The Pats begin the season's second quarter in Atlanta, which has a tough early schedule (a Monday nighter followed by road games on opposite coasts and then a very good Minnesota team at home). The Falcons also have a road division game after the Pats game, so I think this one will go the Patriots way. The trip to Denver could be tricky, as the Patriots eked out a win two years ago even though the Broncos had Danny Kannell at QB. If Jake Plummer is healthy, this could be a difficult one, especially with Denver's mild schedule surrounding the game. Something tells me this could be a Denver win, depending on Jake Plummer’s health. But one of my office mates is a Broncos fan, so I can’t predict a Patriots loss (sorry Kevin). That leads us directly to the Bills at home, where the Pats should prevail over a Buffalo team in transition. Indy at home the next week? No problem. Indy's offense won't be what it was last year and their defense will be about the same. So the result should be the same.

The game at Miami begins the third quarter of the season, and it could be hard-fought, with a short week to prepare for a division road game. Hard-fought, but the Dolphins don't have enough offense to beat the Patriots. Next up is New Orleans at home, and that should be a cake walk compared to their earlier schedule. The Pats then travel to Kansas City, to face a team that *still* doesn't have a defense. It's a difficult place to play, but a very, very depleted Patriots squad thrashed the Chiefs in KC last year -- no reason to expect anything different this year. Then we come to the New York Jets, or as I like to call them, "Patriots Lite." Everything the Jets do well, the Patriots do better, so I can’t envision a letdown for this divisional home game.

The final quarter of the season begins at Buffalo. By then, Mike Mularkey's team might be playing better, but they're still out-classed by New England, and I don't think Willis McGahee is all he's been built up to be. Tampa comes to town next, having played two division games before, and having to play one division game after. Add to that the fact that they are terrible in the cold, and this might be the easiest call of the year -- Patriots win big. They follow that up with a Monday night road game against the Jets (who have division games before and after). The Monday night aspect equalizes the road aspect pretty well, and again, the Patriots do everything better than the Jets. Besides, firing the offensive coordinator wasn't the answer to New York's problems -- and I expect the Patriots to have something special cooked up for Mike Heimerdinger's squad -- they always did when he was the OC in Tennessee. This is a game the Patriots could lose, but I expect another win. As for the last game of the year, the Dolphins usually play tougher than you'd expect in New England late in the year. But their overall record is pretty bad in those games. New head coach Nick Saban should have his team playing well by then, but I think the Patriots have too much firepower for them. Unless the game means little to the Patriots, look for a "Happy New Year's Day" for New England fans.

The Summary

So if you count the second Jets game as a win, the Patriots go 15-1 (14-2 if they lose). Either record virtually guarantees them a division title and a first-round playoff bye. The unknown factors are how the Patriots will react to the loss of Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, and Tedy Bruschi. In 2003, the Pats averaged a 10.2 point margin of victory in their wins; last year it was 13.7 points, so the gap between them and the rest of the league might have been growing, not shrinking. Losing Crennel, Weis, and Bruschi will bring them closer to the pack, but I don’t think it’s a two touchdown difference.

The Patriots coaching might have dropped a bit, but the overall talent on the field is better. The schedule is tougher this year (especially early), but the rest of the league hasn’t made up the two-touchdown differential to take away many of the Patriots 14 wins from last season. I’ll be watching closely to see how the coaching changes have affected things, and I’ll keep you posted if anything becomes apparent.

Other than that, enjoy the season.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 2005 Pre-season Update (8/11/2005)

Well, the off-season flew by, didn’t it? That five week playoff schedule really shortens the time between the Super Bowl and the first pre-season game – which, by the way, is this Friday in Cincinnati against the Bengals. The same Bengals who handed the Pats their collective heads in last year’s pre-season and almost beat them in a shoot-out last December.

But enough about who they’re facing in the fake games. We all know the first and most important commandment of the pre-season is to stay healthy. As is my habit, I’ll give you a quick overview of some stuff that happened since Bill Belichick’s last Gatorade bath and tell you what I’ll be keeping my eye on in the four exhibition games. Maybe it will even motivate some of you to watch the game ::snicker:: (Note: these suggestions refer only to the first team players. Don’t worry if the backups get smoked every week, it means very little.)

On Offense

On the offensive side of the ball, the changes I’ll be focusing on are the departure of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (to Notre Dame) and left guard Joe Andruzzi (to Cleveland), and Andruzzi’s replacement, rookie Logan Mankins.

No one was named to replace Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator, and there’s been a lot of speculation about who will call the plays during the game. But what’s most crucial is that the team continue the offensive system effectively. The pre-season won’t tell us much about how the offense will play in the regular season, because teams don’t show their new plays or even make game plans until the real games begin.

But I will be on the lookout for any problems getting plays or players into the game. Keep an eye on how many “delay of game” penalties or timeouts are called on offense; those would be signs that the offense is having trouble adjusting to life without Charlie. I don’t expect there to be problems, but these kind of small mistakes would be the first signs of trouble.

It can be tough to decipher what’s going on along the offensive line, but here are two questions that will help decide if Logan Mankins is an adequate replacement for Joe Andruzzi at left guard. First, does Tom Brady get hit from the back side? If Mankins and left tackle Matt Light can’t protect the QB’s blind side, you can bet Mankins is the problem. Second, do you hear the referee call out Mankins number? If you hear “holding” or “illegal motion” penalties called on number 70 then the rookie is struggling to handle the increased speed of the pro game.

Keep in mind, though, that Mankins will likely improve as time goes on, as most first year players do. You might even see improvement from the first to the fourth pre-season games.

On Defense

There was a lot of change on defense, but I’ll be watching for three things: how the replacements for Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson hold up; how Vince Wilfork is progressing at nose tackle; and how the young players and newcomers to the Patriots secondary will perform without last year’s defensive backs coach, Eric Mangini (promoted to defensive coordinator).

The Patriots brought in Chad Brown and Monty Beisel, and they have a recovered Rosevelt Colvin, all trying to replace the twin-Teds in the middle of the Patriots defense. No one will replace Tedy Bruschi’s intangibles, and I think Colvin is Willie McGinest’s long-term replacement. But for this year, the Pats will use him on passing downs to replace Bruschi’s pass rushing and coverage skills. If Colvin can’t handle Bruschi’s chores, you’ll know because the other team will convert more of their third-and-four to third-and-six situations.

Chad Brown is a very likely replacement for Ted Johnson, both being more run stuffers than pass coverage guys, although Brown is better against the pass than Johnson. When the other team runs up the gut or close to the tackles, Brown will be tested. If the run goes for less than three yards, he passes the test – so watch for how many running plays make first-and-tens into second-and-sevens for a hint of how Brown is doing. Monty Beisel is an unknown to me, but I’ll watching to see if Belichick and company found yet another diamond in the rough. If he starts the game and is out by the second quarter, you know they are still high on his play because he will already be close to a starting job.

Vince Wilfork was my pick for most improved defensive player last year, and I can’t wait to see how he’s improved in the off-season. One clue to how well he’s doing is whether or not the other team’s offense can gain yardage running between the tackles. So watch for teams trying to run wide or use draws or delays to get their running yards – those are sure signs that Wilfork is doing his jobe by clogging up the middle.

In the secondary, half the team (7 out of 13 players) has three or fewer years of NFL experience. Additionally, the Pats signed three veterans (Chad Scott, Duane Starks, and Antuan Edwards), and of course, their coach from last year has moved up the ladder to defensive coordinator. So if you see receivers running free in the secondary or running backs turning 8-yard gains into 50-yard gains, that would indicate the new coach is having difficulty holding things together the way Eric Mangini did last year. Honestly, I don’t expect this will be a problem; both Mangini and Belichick are former DBs coaches and can lend a hand. But you never know, and that is why it’s always interesting to watch.

On Special Teams

The Troy Brown replacement sweepstakes have begun. I’ll be curious if veteran Tim Dwight or red-shirt rookie P. K. Sam can take Troy Brown’s return duties away. Dwight is injured and probably won’t play in the first game. But P. K. Sam was the heir apparent last season until injuries put him out for the year. The most important thing Sam can show in the pre-season games is the ability to just catch the ball, head up field, and hold onto the ball when he’s tackled. It’s always surprising to me how many return man wanna-bes can’t get even that right.

When Dwight returns from injury, he will know how to catch and run with the ball. The only question with him is can he find a roster spot with all the receiver talent in the fold.

Summary

Well, that’s basically what I’ll be watching in the pre-season. There are other things, of course – everything from new receiver David Terrell to how Richard Seymour’s holdout will effect his season – but I think two full pages of suggestions gives you plenty to go on.

Enjoy the games and let’s stay healthy!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (2/6/2005)

Wow. Going to your first Super Bowl blows you away. It's a once-in-a-lifetime never-to-be-duplicated experience that you strive for with hope and reach with a bit of disbelief. At least it was for me. When they finally scanned my ticket and said, "Enjoy the game," I wasn't sure I should walk toward the stadium. I sort of wanted to go out again and make my way through the line a second time, just so I could remember *exactly* what it felt like to cross that threshold. The only thing better was having the Patriots put down the Eagles to secure their third Lombardi Trophy in four years and to walk out serenaded by chants of "Dy-Nas-Ty!" "Three-Of-Four!" and the obligatory "Yankees Suck!"

It's over for another year, folks, and your New England Patriots are Champions of football, with a 24-21 win over the best the NFC had to offer, the Philadelphia Eagles. With the win, they are 34-4 over the last two years (the 34 wins are a new NFL record), 9-0 in the playoffs over the last four years (tying the NFL record for most consecutive post-season wins), Bill Belichick is 10-1 in the post-season (best record in NFL history), and Tom Brady is 9-0 in the post-season (tying the NFL record for most consecutive wins and breaking the record for most consecutive playoff wins to start a career). Perhaps most amazing is this: in 39 Super Bowls, there have been only five decided by three points or fewer; the Patriots have won three of those five in the last four years. Clutch, just clutch.

So how'd they do it, you may ask. Well, I didn't see the game in the usual way, so I don't know how valuable my information might be. I watched from an odd angle (all the way at the end of the sideline seats at the very tip-top of the stadium), and I don't have a videotape of the game to watch -- at least not yet. I was surrounded by Eagles fans, and I do mean surrounded -- about 50 Eagles fans for every Patriots fan in my section -- so I spent more time defending myself and my team than usual. I'd had about 6 hours sleep in the previous two days, and I was badly sunburned because in Florida they "don't sell sun block in the wintertime." But I guess I'll give it my best shot.

On defense, the Patriots played the odd 2-5-4 alignment almost exclusively: two defensive linemen, five linebackers, and four defensive backs. And they lined them up in a 4-3, with two different linebackers on the line each time. They must have known going in that the Eagles wouldn't or couldn't run the ball, so this defense gave them maximum flexibility to blitz (which they did a lot) or drop a boat-load of guys into coverage. Turned out the Eagles couldn't run the ball at all. In fact, when you take out the meaningless 22-yard jaunt at the end of the half, they had only 23 yards on 16 carries. Pretty bad.

So with no running game, it came down to Eagles QB Donovan McNabb. And he was never the factor the Eagles needed him to be. He threw some of the most pathetic interceptions I'd seen since Scott Secules left the Patriots in 1993. He was obviously confused and he never beat the Patriots by scrambling and/or buying time. In the first quarter, he led the team to the Patriots 8 yard line before being sacked for a 16 yard loss, throwing an interception that was called back on a Patriots penalty, and following that up with a hideous interception by Rodney Harrison. Pretty much tells you how his day went. He was under constant pressure from different players every time; he was sacked four times on the day and threw three interceptions and almost lost a fumble.

The Eagles did get some decent performances by Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens. But with McNabb stinking up the joint, the Eagles had no realistic chance to win. Too much Bruschi, Seymour, Harrison, Vrabel, and Colvin.

As I predicted, the Patriots sputtered on offense early, getting one first down in their first four drives and fumbling deep in Philly territory on their fifth. Their last drive of the first half got them back to a 7-7 game, and I was extremely confident at that point. If you remember, I said the Eagles had to have a 10- or 14-point lead at the half to win the game, so a tie was in the Patriots favor. In fact, that last drive of the first half and first four of the second half are where the Pats won the game: touchdown, touchdown, punt, touchdown, field goal -- all 24 points they scored on the day. Brady was perfect (2 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a bunch of good decisions), Super Bowl MVP Branch was unbelievable (11 catches for 133 yards), the screen pass wore out the Eagle defense, and while the Patriots were lighting up the scoreboard, their defense held Philly to 7 points.

The ball game was basically over by then. McNabb threw two more interceptions and was physically unable to run a hurry-up offense, so their last touchdown was meaningless because they'd used too much time. Only an onside kick recovery would help them, and they didn't even come close. We might never know if it was McNabb who couldn't run the offense because he was exhausted (my personal theory) or if the Eagles coaches just froze under pressure. Either way, it's another championship for our boys in red white, and blue, and I'm sure they'll take it with no regrets.

So where does that leave us? Well, the Patriots have lost their two coordinators: Charlie Weis is the new head coach at Notre Dame, and Romeo Crennel will take the same job with the Cleveland Browns. This will certainly be the toughest challenge since the Patriots began this championship run. Historically, defenses often play better with a new coordinator because it takes the opposition a while to figure out what they're doing. Additionally, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick cut his teeth on the defensive side so he can help out with that side of the ball. On the other hand, offenses often struggle for a year under a new coordinator, even if the same basic system is kept intact. Offense requires more timing and chemistry than defense, and it's difficult to maintain that with a new guy.

I disagree with some who say the entire offense and defense should stay the same. I think you if you hire a new coordinator you should trust that he will make the right decisions for the team. So if Romeo's replacement thinks a particular defense is too risky in the secondary, it should be adjusted. And if Charlie's replacement thinks Corey Dillon is underutilized, then that should be adjusted. After the Super Bowl, I told some Eagles fans (the few who were nice to me during the game) that next year is their best opportunity to win it all because the Patriots are unlikely to make it back with all the coaching changes. Given what I know about the history of new coordinators, I still believe that. But I leave open the possibility that the Patriots could overcome it and even thrive. They've been too good at adjusting for me to doubt them very much.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "In Conference Championship and Super Bowl games, Donovan McNabb's quarterback rating is 62.2. Tom Brady's is 98.9 in similar games. Maybe the Philly fans were right to boo McNabb when he was drafted."

Hope you enjoyed the season as much as I did. Thanks for tuning in.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

3-0!
&
17-2!

Patriots vs. Eagles Super Bowl Preview (2/2/2005)

If you haven't already drowned in the pre-game hype, here's my Super Bowl preview to add to the national bluster.

In previewing the last two playoff games (Colts and Steelers), I relied heavily on games the two teams played earlier in the season. Well, there was no Patriots/Eagles game this year, and I don't really think the most recent one (September 2003) is very relevant, so I can't do the same with this one. So what I'll do is write more generally on how their strengths and weaknesses match up and how that's likely to shape the outcome of the game. And as always, if you don't have time to read this entire email, you can skip to "The Bottom Line" section at the end for a summary.

HOW THE EAGLES CAN WIN

Point #1. The Eagles defense is the type that Tom Brady struggles against the most.

The Eagles are good on the defensive line, strong at linebacker, and excellent in the defensive backfield-- much like the Miami Dolphins, who always give Brady trouble. Honestly, most quarterbacks have a tough time against teams like that because they can get after the passer with or without blitzing and the corners usually cover long enough for a sack, an incomplete pass, or at worst a completed pass with no yards after the catch. So don't expect too many of those 60-yard bombs to Deion Branch on Sunday.

The Patriots might have trouble scoring to start off, as they adjust to what the Eagles throw at them early in the game. And if that happens, it could prompt the Patriots to take more risks to move the ball and that could lead to turnovers, especially against the talented Philly secondary. I think the Pats would be well advised to run a lot early and throw only on obvious running downs (first down, third-and-short, that kind of thing) because the most important thing to avoid is giving the Eagles a short field with interceptions or fumbles. But if Brady audibles into passing plays a few times before he's gotten a real good look at how Philly is playing on defense, it could spell trouble.

So Tom Brady has to play carefully to make sure the Patriots don't fall too far behind early in the game -- because...

Point #2. The Eagles are 9-0 after a bye week, and the Patriots offense has struggled after a bye week in the playoffs.

Since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, they have played four playoff games after a bye week: Raiders in 2002, Titans and Panthers in 2004, and the Colts earlier this year. And all told, the first halves of those games were some of the Patriots worst post-season offensive performances. Here are the first quarter scoring totals: 0, 7, 0, and 0. They've averaged only 8.5 points in the first half of those games and that includes 14 points in the last 3:00 of the 2004 Super Bowl. And while the Patriots have won all those games, three of the wins were by three points and only the Indy game from this year was a decisive victory. The Patriots defense has played well in those games, but if the offense gets off to a slow start, it could mean trouble for the Patriots.

On the other hand, the Eagles usually come out smoking after a bye week. As I said, they are 9-0 under Andy Reid after a bye, and that includes 3-0 in the playoffs. In the three playoff games, they've averaged 14 points in the first half (almost 6 more than the Patriots) and have spread that scoring out more evenly (17 in the first quarter and 24 in the second quarter). The Eagles coaching staff seems to come up with a good plan of attack when they have the extra week, and I expect them to do the same here. If the Patriots don't score much in the first half, that is when the Eagles have their best chance to take the game away by building a large lead.

So if the Pats offense comes out flat, if they turn the ball over, or if they fall behind by 10 or 14 points (as they did to the Raiders in 2002, for example), it will be tough for the Pats to come back because Brady struggles against this type of defense and it's difficult to run the ball when you're down by two touchdowns.

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN

Point #1. The Patriots defense versus the Eagles offense is a *huge* mismatch in the Patriots favor.

The Patriots defense shut down a great passing game (Indianapolis) and a great running game (Pittsburgh) in the past month; they've been shutting down the run for two months now; the defensive line and secondary are playing their best of the year; and their linebackers give them flexibility by covering the run and pass equally well without changing personnel. Romeo Crennel and his staff are at the peak of their powers, the players all know their assignments and execute them well, and they are a very physical team that wears down the opposing receivers and backs by hitting them every single time they release from the line.

The Eagles have a more balanced offense than either the Colts or Steelers, but it isn't the kind of balance needed to combat the Patriot defense. They are a finesse running team that tries to trick you with draws and quick sweeps to the outside, and that plays right into the Patriots strength and discipline on the defensive line, speed at linebacker, and hitting ability in the secondary. Philly's offense can't out-muscle the Patriots defense and that bodes ill for their chances to establish the run. As for the pass, their receivers are small and shy about contact, and the Patriots just love to get out and hit guys until they won't run across the middle any more. The Pats dominated the Colt receivers, and this group is the same type of players -- except they aren't as talented. Only Terrell Owens is big and physical enough to give the Pats trouble, and he probably won't be too much of a factor if he does play. And even if he does play and is a factor, that gives the Eagles one weapon and a bunch of no-name mid-level receivers and backs. And we all know what the Patriots do to teams with one weapon -- shut it down and make you beat them some other way.

Point #2. Corey Dillon doesn't struggle against *any* defense.

If this were last year, I might worry that the Patriots would have trouble scoring. The Eagle defense attacks from all angles and gets pressure on the QB week in and week out, and no quarterback plays well when they're getting hit all the time. But the Patriots now have Corey Dillon, and I expect #28 to get a lot of early carries. He's a punishing runner who, along with his offensive line, can over-power a defense and wear it down. The Eagles are very good a getting after the quarterback, but they're nothing special against the run. And the run is how you control the clock and the game, forcing the other team to alter their defense, which always opens up holes for you to exploit.

Combine Dillon's power running with some quick outs and wide-receiver screens, and the Eagle defenders will have to creep closer to the line. And that's when Brady can do his damage, with 10- to 15-yard patterns over linebackers who are out of position trying to stop the run. If Dillon runs 15+ times in the first half, the game will be going the Patriots way. If Tom Brady throws it 20+ times in the first half, it probably plays more into the Eagles kind of game. Philly likes to get out ahead and force you to throw into the strength of their defense. So if the Patriots give them a big does of Corey Dillon to the right, left, and up the middle, it could be a long day for Eagle fans.

Quick Points:

A) Everyone says that Donovan McNabb has to have a big game for the Eagles to win. I think he'll play well, but his receivers need to step up for that to happen. The Patriots front seven is too quick and disciplined to allow McNabb to beat them running the ball consistently.

B) Experience counts. In last year's Super Bowl, everyone said the kicking game was even. But Panthers kicker John Kasey booted a kickoff out of bounds late in the game, giving Adam Vinatieri a chance to kick the game winner at the end. You never know when pressure will get to your players. The Eagles have blown a lot of big games in the past four years, the Patriots haven't.

C) Even against Andy Reid's staff, the Patriots have the coaching edge. There's no one in the NFL over the last 20 years that I'd rather have on the sideline for a Super Bowl than Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis. They're innovative, thorough, precise, and they have a knack for getting their players to play their best on Sunday. You've probably hear it already, but here it is once more: Vince Lombardi and Bill Belichick have the same post-season record at 9-1. Would you prefer someone else to coach your team in the Super Bowl?

The Bottom Line

So the Eagles can win if the Patriots come out flat on offense, as they have done recently after a playoff bye week, and the Eagles come out hot early on, as they have done after a playoff bye. Philly will have to score early to get the Patriots to abandon their running game to keep up, and that could lead to turnovers and possibly more points for the Eagles. On the other hand, the Patriots can win by sticking with the running game to draw defenders out of position and open up the passing game. If they don't fall far behind early, the Patriots should be able to win because they have the better overall team, and they will be able to attack the Eagle defense and offense more effectively with their in-game adjustments.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Patriots scored 51 more points than the Eagles this past year, and that was against some of the best defenses in the NFL. The Pats faced a top ten defense seven times this year; the Eagles only four times. With that schedule, they should have scored more than the Patriots, not the other way around."

Keep the faith and enjoy the game,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots 41, Steelers 27 (1/23/2005)

Who knew the shortest route to Jacksonville goes through Pittsburgh?
Well, that's the way the Patriots got there, with a 41-27 drubbing of the Steelers in yesterday's AFC Championship game. The win puts the Patriots in the Super Bowl two Sundays hence in Jacksonville, Florida against the Philadelphia Eagles, and gives your local 11 a chance to solidify their status as a bona fide NFL dynasty.

In many ways, the game was a mirror image of the last previous tilt with the Steelers (a 34-20 Steelers victory). Both times, the winner led 24-3 and simply milked that lead to a two-touchdown win. Both times, the losing QB threw bad interceptions that cost his team points and both QBs had one turnover returned for a touchdown. And like the first game, this one wasn't as close as the final score indicated. As I wrote last week about the previous game, it was an ass-whippin' of the first order.

The Patriots did what they always do, taking away the other team's strength. All week I heard the Steelers would run the ball even if they didn't gain many yards; just to wear down the Patriots defense. So what do they do on their first third down opportunity? (Big) Ben Roethlisberger threw an interception, a harbinger of things to come. The Patriots wanted to stop the run to put the game in the hands of the Steelers's less-than-capable rookie QB. Instead, the Steelers did it for them, with totally predictable results.

The Pats defense played very well, stuffing the running tandem of Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley for 90 combined yards, and holding Big Ben to a
58.3 passer rating (down just a smidge from his 126.4 of the earlier meeting). The Steelers averaged 4.4 yards a run, but the D-line along with the versatile linebacking corps stopped them when it counted and made them try to win through the air.

And when they tried passing, Roethlisberger looked confused and frustrated, a typical rookie reaction to seeing the Patriots defensive schemes. Heck, the Pats stopped Peyton Manning, what chance did Big Ben
really have. They picked on Asante Samuel much of the day, and he came
through with great closing speed and a bunch of passes defended.
Randall Gay's name was rarely called, with the Steelers showing him respect not usually given to a rookie by throwing to the other side of the field, and Eugene Wilson picked of two passes. Perhaps the biggest turnover of all was Rodney Harrison's INT and return for touchdown, but every single INT or fumble meant another drive stopped and another opportunity for the Pats offense.

And the "O" usually cashed in. The team scored 24 points off of turnovers, with a couple of quick-strikes down the field. The Pats obviously decided to attack the deep middle, and the O-line blocked admirably against the relentless Steelers blitzing. And Tom Brady made that extra time pay with 207 yards, 2 touchdowns, and (most important) no interceptions. Deion Branch had the biggest receiving game (4 catches for 116 yards), and he, David Givens, David Patten, and Christian Fauria made tough catches at important moments. The Pats did give up two sacks, but overall the passing game worked great.

As for the anticipated showdown between Corey Dillon and the Steelers defense, well the Steelers won the battle most of the time. Dillon finished with 73 yards on 24 carries, with one touchdown. Take out Deion Branch's 37 yards on two reverses and the Pats were under 100 yards for the day. However, just the threat of the run seemed to open things up for long passes. Whenever the Steelers overcommitted to play-action fakes, the Patriots gave Brady just enough time to beat them with the pass.

The special teams were nothing special. They gave up a lot of return yards and only twice had very good returns of their own. Adam Vinatieri did kick a 48-yard field goal (tying the longest in the history of the stadium), but his kickoffs were short and some were short and low - a deadly combination. I assume this phase of the game will be better for the Super Bowl, because the ball won't be frozen in Florida.

And I would be remiss if I didn't mention what a great coaching job the Pats did. They always give the other team something new to adjust to, and they always come out with a plan to score early and often (they scored first 17 times in 18 games this year). Charlie Weis will leave at the end of the year for the head coaching position at Notre Dame, and there's a good chance that Romeo Crennel will become the head man for the Cleveland Browns. So enjoy this while you can; the team might look a lot different next year.

So where does this leave us? Well, the Patriots are off for a few days before beginning their preparation for the big game against Philadelphia. The Pats beat the Eagles in 2003, but I don't suppose that will have much of an impact on the one coming up. Brady is now the only QB in history to win his first eight playoff games; Belichick is now tied with Vince Lombardi for the all-time best playoff winning percentage (9-1); and should the Patriots win the Super Bowl, they will break the record for most wins over a two-season span in NFL history (34).

As the defending Super Bowl champions, I like their chances, but I probably won't send my Super Bowl Preview email until next week. Until then, I'll probably spend most of my time scrambling around to find tickets (note: any help in that area will be rewarded with my eternal gratitude - and maybe a finder's fee), arranging for time off and coverage for my 2/8 helpdesk shift, and hoping against hope that Terrell Owens misses the game.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "You know, Bill Cowher just doesn't get it.
The night before the game, he showed his team a tape of their October victory over the Patriots to remind them of how great they are. Bill Belichick showed the Patriots the same tape to remind them of how much work they have to do."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots vs. Steelers Preview (1/20/2005)

It’s here again, folks. Yooooouuuuurrrrr New England Patriots play this Sunday for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl; and according to many pundits, the right to just show up and win the Super Bowl, given the lack of talented teams in the NFC. But first things first, what to make of the 16-1, 15-game winning streak, undefeated rookie QB, #1 NFL defense, #1 NFL rushing offense – and yet somehow still the “underdog” – Pittsburgh Steelers.

Well, since last week’s approach to previewing playoff games was so successful, I thought I’d try the same thing with this weekend’s game. As you’ll recall, I considered two things before the Indy game: the September game between the Pats and Colts; and what had changed since then that was likely to have an effect on the game. So now I'll consider the October game between the Pats and Steelers and ponder what might have changed since then that might alter the outcome.

Pittsburgh won the earlier game, 34-20, and it could easily have been 41-20 as the Steelers sat on the ball toward the end rather than score another touchdown. They ran the ball right down the throats of the Patriots defense, churning out 221 yards on 49 carries. And wonder-rookie Ben Roethlisberger completed 75% of his passes, with two touchdowns, no interceptions and a QB rating of 126.4 (better than Peyton Manning’s season-long rating), and perhaps most importantly, he was rarely pressured and never sacked in the game.

It was an ass-whuppin’ of the first order, and the Patriots first double-digit loss in 27 games (since the 31-0 beating they took at Buffalo in 2003). Now if this game was the week after that loss, the Pats would be in real trouble. Fortunately, two-and-a-half months have passed since then, and in fact, almost all the changes since that first game favor the Patriots. The question is, has enough changed to overcome a 14-point loss?

Well, here goes...

(Note: if you don't have time to read all this, feel free to skip forward to "The Bottom Line" below.)

Point #1: The running games are likely to be much more even this time.

In the first game, the rushing yards were Pittsburgh 221 and New England 5. On that day, Duce Staley did most of the damage, with 125 yards on 25 carries, Jerome Bettis contributed 65 yards on 15 carries, and the Steelers seemed to rush at will and then pass for big yardage when the Pats moved more guys up to stop the run. The Patriots played the game without Corey Dillon, and they fell behind by 21 points early and had to abandon the running game (only six carries for the entire game).

Three things have changed in New England's favor in the running game since October. First of all, Jerome Bettis is starting on Sunday, not Duce Staley, and over the years the Patriots have owned Bettis even more than Peyton Manning. Against the Pats, Bettis has rushed for less than 50 yards a game and less than 40 yards a game in the playoffs. Staley has at least averaged a decent 78 yards a game, in limited action against New England.

Secondly, the Patriots averaged 142 yards a game with Corey Dillon playing. And as a team the Patriots have rushed for 55% more yards this season when facing a team for the second time (449 yards in first games, 698 in second games). The addition of Dillon and the fact that this is the second game against Pittsburgh mean the Patriots should see a significant increase in their rushing output Sunday. And with a better rushing attack, you won't see the Pats fall behind 21-3 early on, and that will mean Pittsburgh won't have the luxury of running the ball 49 times to wear down the defense.

And lastly, when the Steelers do run, both Vince Wilfork and Keith Traylor are playing much better now than they were in October. This simply means the Pats should be able to contain the run without committing extra defenders to the line of scrimmage. And if Pittsburgh tries to just run the ball to wear out the defense, the Pats can rotate these two nose tackles and their deep linebacker corps to keep them rested.

Point #2: Ben Roethlisberger has come down to Earth, and Belichick will likely bring him down even further.

Roethlisberger played in 14 regular season games and one playoff game this year. In the first seven games, his QB rating was 105.2, in the last eight (including last weekend's playoff game), it was 84.5. His touchdowns were down from 11 to 7, his interceptions were up from 5 to 8, his yards per game are slightly down, and just generally, he had more trouble winning games. In his first seven games, the Steelers had five double-digit wins, in his last eight games, they had only three. Not a precipitous fall, but significant all the same. Consider also that he had his worst game of the year last week against the Jets, where he looked confused and threw two really bad interceptions.

Also consider that in the October game, the Patriots had only 4 game films of Big Ben to study; now they have 15 game films, including what has worked to slow down or stop him as the year wore on. Belichick and Romeo Crennel will find tendencies and flaws, they'll identify what makes Roethlisberger most comfortable and take it away, and they'll find out what he likes the least and make him do that to beat them. And their record in second games against a quarterback in a season stands at 13-0. This exact scenario is what the Patriots coaching staff is best at, and you can be sure they'll come up with something. If the Patriots get the lead in the second half, it will be very interesting to see how the rookie QB reacts to having *real* pressure on him late in a playoff game when a Super Bowl berth is on the line.

Point #3: The Patriots can game-plan knowing that Ty Law and Tyrone Poole will be out.

One thing that really hurt the Pats in the first game was they made their plans believing that Ty Law would be in the game. When he was injured in the first quarter, the Steelers went right after his replacement and scored a quick touchdown. This forced the Patriots to adjust their game plan and cover up for the rookie cornerback, opening things up for the running attack, and the Steelers ran 49 times and wore down the Patriots defense. The Pats would probably been okay if they'd had Tyrone Poole to cover one side of the field, but he was injured and out of the game entirely.

In this Sunday's game, the Patriots obviously know that Ty Law and Tyrone Poole won't play, and even if there are injuries during the game this Sunday, the drop-off from the current starters to their backups won't be as severe as it was when they switched from Pro-Bowler Ty Law to unproven rookie Randall Gay. Asante Samuel and Randall Gay are now proven NFL commodities (Gay not as good as Samuel), Troy Brown has made amazing strides at nickel back, and should the Patriots need more help there, they now have the option of shifting Eugene Wilson to corner. Because they had to try so many combinations during the season, the Patriots will have more options come Sunday, a luxury they didn't enjoy in the first game.

Quick Points:

A) Once again, the Patriots have the special teams advantage. The Steelers gave up a punt-return touchdown in last week's playoff game with NY, and their coverage teams are in the bottom-half of the league.

B) The Steeler defense isn't as healthy as some would have you believe. Two of their linebackers are hobbling, and their starting nose tackle and corner are both out.

C) The Patriots might be favored, but the pressure is really on Bill Cowher. He's hosted four AFC Championship Games and is 1-3. If he loses this one, winning 20% of the championship games *at home* looks pretty bad. Oh, and the Patriots are 5-0 in AFC Championship games.

D) No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl. Ever. Hey, records were made to be broken, but that's an awful lot of pressure on Roethlisberger.

The Bottom Line

This game is a heck of a lot closer than the Colts game. The Patriots took a beating in the earlier game, but excepting the next week against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh hasn't played as well since then. Their running star against the Patriots in October (Duce Staley) has been in and out of games with injuries, and his replacement (Jerome Bettis) hasn't historically done well against the Patriots. Their rookie quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) has more interceptions than touchdowns since playing the Patriots, and the Patriots usually feast on teams that turn the ball over. And the Patriots have more proven cornerbacks to replace Ty Law than they did in October, making it more difficult for Pittsburgh to attack down the field, thus meaning the Patriots can commit to stopping the Steeler run in ways they couldn't before.

Add to that the pressure on Bill Cowher (currently 1-3 in home AFC Championship games) and Ben Roethlisberger (no rookie QB has ever taken his team to the Super Bowl) and the fact that the Patriots are 5-0 in their history in AFC Championship games and under Belichick they've played their most impressive playoff games in this round, and it looks like a lot is going the Patriots way. Will it be enough to overcome the 14-point margin of the first game? I think so. After all, if the Patriots simply hadn't turned the ball over, the Steelers probably would have scored 14 fewer points right off the bat, and with all the other factors that have changed in the Patriots favor since then, it looks like the Pats will indeed win. This is one of those games I wouldn't bet on no matter what -- too much uncertainty -- and I won't predict a blowout. But I can see a seven- or ten-point win.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If Peyton Manning couldn't figure out the Patriots defense, how can Ben Roethlisberger? Sure, the Steelers will run a lot, but the Patriots offense is good enough to score about half the time on the Steeler defense. So if the Pats can get a lead and the Steelers can't score by running, then it will be up to Big Ben, with a Super Bowl berth on the line. I like the Patriots chances."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!