Patriots Charge Back to Top Dolphins, 27-17

The Patriots spotted Miami a 14-point lead before storming back in the second half to notch a 10-point victory, 27-17. Every other division team lost, leaving the Patriots with 2-, 3-, and 3.5-game leads in the AFC East (over the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills, respectively). The desperate Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5 record) visit Foxboro next Sunday, an important game, given that the Patriots now have a middling 3-2 conference record.

The first half was a Miami blowout. The Dolphins scored a touchdown after an early Tom Brady interception and another on a drive that started on their own 42-yardline. They carried a 17-3 lead into the half, but that was all the points they would score. The Patriots offense and defense completely changed and they steamrolled Miami 24-0 in the second half.

It appeared the teams changed uniforms at the half. In the first 30 minutes, the Patriots gave up a sack, an interception, ran just 24 offensive plays for only 59 yards, and got 5 first downs.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins gave up 0 sacks, committed 0 turnovers, ran 40 plays for 175 yards, and notched 13 first downs.

But in the second half, the Patriots gave up 2 sacks but had 0 turnovers, gained 193 yards, and got 15 first downs. And the newly hapless Dolphins gave up 6 sacks and had 3 turnovers, gained 126 yards, and got only 10 first downs. This was easily the best job of halftime adjustments by the Patriots coaching staff (and of implementing those adjustments by the players).

The offensive line went from terrible to terrific. Brady was under heavy duress in the first half, with several missed assignments allowing for easily blown up plays. Logan Makins blew at least two plays, and it wasn't looking good when starting RT Sebastian Vollmer left the game with a leg injury. But they were stout in the second half, improving from 2.7 to 5.0 yards per rush, and giving Brady time to pick apart the Miami defense.

Brady ended the day just 13 of 22 (59%), 116 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and a 69.5 QB rating. Brady was reportedly injured, and that might have been the cause of the many inaccurate throws (although he's been off the mark quite a bit this year). He did have a huge eight-yard run for a first down, and he did a much better job spreading the ball around to his receivers.

The receiving star of the day was Aaron Dobson, who caught 4 passes for 60 yards, had a touchdown grab, and finally -- FINALLY -- connected with Brady on a back-shoulder throw. Returning from injury, Danny Amendola was targeted the most (6), but ended up with just 3 catches for 15 yards. Rob Gronkowski went 2 for 27, his run-blocking is rounding into its old form (which is dominating), and he looked to be more on the same page with Brady.

The running backs did a nice job, especially in the second half. Stevan Ridley got 79 yards on 14 carries (5.6 ypc), and he had a couple of excellent blocks on blitz pick up. LeGarrette Blount started the game, and made the most of it (11 carries for 46 yards) -- and he also did a very good job on kickoff returns. Brandon Bolden pitched in with 8 carries for 22 yards, and also caught 2 passes for 7 yards.

There were three stars on the defensive line. Rookie Chris Jones, one week removed from his overtime penalty, had 7 tackles, 1 sack (7 yards), a QB hit, and 2 tackles for a loss. He also helped shore up the porous run defense in the second half.  Chandler Jones (no relation) brought consistent pressure from the outside, and blocked a field goal that would have made it a one-score game in the fourth quarter. And the ever-present Rob Ninkovich had 6 tackles, 1 sack (6 yards), 3 QB hits, 1 tackle for a loss, and a fumble recovery.

On the flip side, linebackers Brandon Spikes and Dont'a Hightower had trouble most of the game. Spikes (9 tackles) guessed run/pass correctly on the majority of plays, but he blitzed himself out of far too many running plays and didn't tackle well enough on others. Hightower's stat line looks good: 10 tackles, 1 sack (9 yards), a QB hit, and 2 tackles for a loss. But he sometimes appears tentative; as if he was more concerned with taking on blockers than with getting the ball-carrier. This might be coaching or maybe he's worried about giving up big plays. Either way the team needs to address it.

None of the other linebackers were notable for much; but it was interesting to see both Dane Fletcher and Jamie Collins get increased playing time in the absence of Jerod Mayo. (Trivia Question: With Mayo out for the year, he will not lead the Patriots in tackles this season. Can you name the last player other than Mayo to lead the Patriots in tackles for a season, and as a bonus what year was it? Answer below.)

There were several stars in the secondary... again, in the second half. Rookie Logan Ryan blitzed thrice and got two sacks (18 yards), forcing a fumble on one. He also had a pass knocked down in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty got beaten a few times on isolated coverage in the first quarter, but he teamed up with Marquice Cole on one of the prettiest interceptions you'll ever see (sort of a tip-ball from out of bounds for the INT). Also, despite being beaten on crossing routes, Alfonzo Dennard ended up with 9 tackles, and Kyle Arrington shook off some early woes and had a big pass knock down.

Special teams were okay; long kickoffs and punts with the wind, shorter ones into it. The one spectacular play was Jones' blocked field goal. But also of note: Nate Ebner had 2 tackles and 2 assists, and he's doing a great job on kickoff coverage specifically.

The coaches did a poor job on the initial game plan. Miami ran at will, and the short passing game and some scrambles by their QB were just killers. But the halftime adjustments were terrific, and you can't argue with the results; a second-half shutout is great against any team, let alone one that put up 17 points against you in the first half.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 is halfway to a 12-4 record, which would put the team in the playoffs for sure and likely have them competing for a bye week. If they beat Pittsburgh this weekend, it will be their first winning streak since September. Given the Steelers' woes, the Patriots *should* beat them, but in a year of win-lose-win-lose, you just never know.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady had as many pass attempts (22) as Miami QB Ryan Tannehill had completions.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I don't know; Brady's hand looks just swell to me!" (wait for laughter to ensue, or a dope-slap, depending on your audience).

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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In 2007, the year before Mayo entered the NFL, Tedy Bruschi led the team with 92 tackles.  (Note: Allan, the Weather God, got that answer on the spot at yesterday's game.  Kudos -- and thank you for another nice day in Foxboro!)

Patriots Let One Get Away, Lose to Jets, 30-27

I guess if I could only have one victory this weekend, I'll take the Red Sox on Saturday night, rather than the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. After all, that win put the Sox in the World Series. The Patriots blew an 11-point halftime lead and lost to the Jets, 30-27, in overtime. The loss leave them at 5-2, just one game ahead of the Jets in the division. And next week's division tilt with Miami becomes that much more important, as the Patriots don't want to let the 3-3 Dolphins into the chase by blowing one to another team they should beat.

Against the Jets, it came down to winning the line of scrimmage. The Jets controlled it on both sides of the ball all game long, gaining 177 yards on the ground (to the Patriots 90), converting 52% of their third downs (to the Patriots pathetic 10%), and grinding the clock with 46:13 in time of possession (to the Patriots 23:40). It shows you how much more talented the Patriots are that they were even in this game.

By controlling the ball with the run, Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith could stay with safe passes and run an occasional QB scramble. Bill Belichick excels at making teams win by doing what they do not want to do; but on this day, the Jets ran the ball and controlled the clock, which is exactly their game plan ever week. No Vince Wilfork, no Tommy Kelly, no Jerod Mayo, and no answers to stopping the run or getting off the field on third down.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offensive line looks to have been vastly overrated. They've gotten schooled the last three games in a row, and every week there were mistakes by left tackle Nate Solder, and the center/guard combo of Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly. Tough to throw when the defenders are on you before you turn to look upfield, and even when Tom Brady had time, it was usually due to him stepping away from pressure first.

Not that the Patriots quarterback is absolved of blame. He forced the ball to returning tight end Rob Gronkowski over and over, threw long when they needed a first down late in the game, his INT was a terrible decision, and his passes were off-target too many times. He ended the day with a pedestrian stat line: 22 of 46 (48%), 228 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 INT, 53.5 rating, and 4 sacks (23 yards). But 17 targets of Gronkowski (8 receptions for 114 yards) was just too much emphasis on one player, especially when that player wasn't open.

The other receivers were subpar at best. Aaron Dobson needs to catch it when it comes his way, and he and Brady need to get on the same page for the back-shoulder throw. Kenbrell Thompkins was barely targeted and ended up with 2 catches for 15 yards. And Julian Edelman was more memorable for his punt returns than for anything he did on the field.

The Patriots gained 4.5 yards a carry in the running game. But they didn't run often enough, especially in overtime. The Patriots only OT possession was four passes, against a Jets defense with only five men in the box to stop the run. Brady needed to audible to running plays to make the Jets respect the run -- the Jets six-DB defense was the reason three of the four passes fell incomplete.

On defense, it appears the loss of Jerod Mayo is going to hurt. A lot. Even though I've complained about Mayo's pass-coverage deficiencies over the years, he was doing much better this season. And his absence leaves hulking Dont'a Hightower on tight ends and running backs; and every pass-coverage assignment ate him up. Rookie Jamie Collins was drafted to help with defend the pass, but apparently he hasn't impressed the team enough to get significant playing time.

Linebacker Brandon Spikes was up to his old tricks, guessing properly most of the time, but overrunning some of those plays and giving up chunks of yardage. But the Wilfork/Kelly replacements, Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, got pushed back a lot yesterday, as the Jets imposed their will. Outside linemen Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich did a decent job holding the edge against the run, and Jones had consistent pressure on the QB. One caveat on the line; they did not play well together -- too often they lost lane-responsibility, giving Smith open spaces to run for big yards.

Rookie cornerback Logan Ryan got his first interception, and he took it back for a touchdown. And safety Devin McCourty played extremely well, doing a nice job in run support (7 tackles) and knocking away two passes. Corner Alfonzo Dennard's play was very impressive; not perfect, but he batted away a few passes that would have gone for long gains otherwise. Unfortunately, slot-corner Kyle Arrington wasn't up to the task of replacing injured Aqib Talib, so he was eventually replaced by journeyman Marquice Cole.

Punter Ryan Allen played well, a decent average and mostly didn't blow any kicks. However, two of his punts bounded directly into the end zone, and it would have helped a lot if they'd been able to pin the Jets back in those cases. Gostkowski was Gostkowski -- kicking through the end zone on a regular basis, and perfect on field goals.

As for the coaching; there was too much emphasis on Gronkowski, and not enough rushing attempts. Close games are maddening from an analysis standpoint, because every mistake or missed opportunity is magnified. And to that end, the overtime play-calling was piss-poor, and even toward the end of regulation, when a touchdown would have won the game, it made no sense to throw a 30-yard pass on third-and-10, when you should have been going for a first down, not a touchdown.

Also, Chris Jones committed a penalty that gave the Jets a second-chance in OT. He said after the game he didn't know about the new rule; and that is a coaching problem. If he is on your special teams, then he needs to know the rules -- even if everyone who wears a Patriots cap or t-shirt thinks the call was a homer-chicken-bleep call that handed the game to the Jets. But I'm not bitter... ::grumble::

So where does this leave us? 5-2 is good, but with the Dolphins losing to Buffalo, this game was a chance to knock out the Jets and put a few games between them and Miami. Instead, it looks like a dogfight with New York, and possible Miami, for at least another month to six weeks (if not for the rest of the year).

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady threw at least 1 touchdown in 52 straight games (second longest streak in NFL history). Since then, he has 1 total touchdown pass in 3 games.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gronk accounted for exactly half of the passing yards; think Brady missed him much?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

PPS. Trivia Question even I don't know the answer to: When was the last time the Patriots won a game and then lost the next game by the exact same score? Email me if you know; I'm too tired to research it.

Patriots Win 30-27 Thriller Over Saints

Now isn't this more exciting than blowing out every team on the schedule? The Patriots stunning last-second victory over the Saints gave them a 5-1 record for the year, tied for the third-best in the entire league (behind the AFC West undefeateds -- the Broncos and Chiefs). It also puts them 1.5 games ahead of the idle Miami Dolphins in the division, with the AFC East rival Jets hosting them for a tilt next Sunday.

This game couldn't have been more even, with two teams delivering offensive and defensive haymakers play after play. It came down the little things, so here's a list of what made the difference:

1. Tom Brady outplayed Drew Brees by a narrow but important margin. Brady spread the ball around, rarely throwing to covered receivers and taking sacks instead of risking interceptions. Brees' completions were top-heavy: 12 combined catches by 3 receivers, and 1 reception each by 5 other receivers. And he continually threw the ball to well-covered tight end Jimmy Graham, and Graham ended the day with as many catches as injured Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski -- zero.

It's one of the reasons Brady completed 58% of his passes, while Brees only completed 47%. In crucial moments, Brees made mistakes (bad reads, timeouts, and a terrible decision on his interception). Brady made only one big mistake all day, an interception that was a bad throw to -- you guessed it -- a receiver who was breaking open.

2. The Saints field the second-worst run defense in the NFL, and the Patriots exploited it for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. But while the Saints blitz was pressuring Brady all day, they used it sparingly, which gave Brady time to pick them apart. So the Patriots took advantage while the Saints did not.

3. Meanwhile on defense, the Patriots best cover corner (Aqib Talib) went out in the third quarter, and the Saints failed to attack his replacements.  Instead, they stubbornly went after their second-best corner, Alfonzo Dennard. When the Saints saw safety Devin McCourty covering receivers, they should have drawn up plays to attack him. Instead they went after Dennard, and missed opportunities to put the game away.

4. Aside from the lack of blitzing, the Saints offense went very conservative once they had a lead in the fourth quarter. After they went up 24-23, they ran the ball five times, threw one incompletion, and kicked a field goal. That is unusual for head coach Sean Payton, and it did not help his cause.

The Patriots were the exact opposite. After the Saints went up 24-23, they went for it on fourth-and-six, threw long passes down the field (one of which was intercepted), and run-blitzed to stop the Saints from getting first downs.

Even on special teams, the Patriots were the aggressors. They tried a trick-return on the first New Orleans punt of the day. It failed, but set the tone that half-measures would not cut it. They also had kicker Stephen Gostkowski try a 54-yard field goal at the end of the half, which was good and is a career high for him.

5. The Patriots held firm with "next man up" in this game. Gronkowski didn't play but his replacement, Michael Hoomanawanui grabbed 4 catches for 57 yards. Receiver Danny Amendola left the game with and injury, and Julian Edelman and new signee Austin Collie torched the Saints on game-winning drive. Corner Aqib Talib left with an injury and his replacements continued to shut down receivers for no big plays (except for the one touchdown). Linebacker Jerod Mayo left the game late, but the Saints never couldn't run the ball with three of the Patriots best run defenders in the locker room (including Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly).

No team wins with replacements at key positions like the Patriots. And that habit served them well yesterday. They had all the excuses in the world if they lost; but they never took the bait. And the Saints paid the price for it.

6. The Patriots won the turnover battle because they had no fumbles and because Brees threw a jump-ball interception toward Graham. They also won the penalty battle, committing only 4 for 33 yards while the Saints committed 7 for 56 yards, and they had more first downs: 26 to 20. The Patriots prevailed in time of possession: 31:51 to 28:09. Even their punter outperformed his counterpart on New Orleans, 52.5 to 44.7.

Again, the little things. The Saints probably win the game if they can turn just one of those failings into an advantage.

7. In the second half, the Saints squandered their timeouts, the Patriots saved theirs. New Orleans called two timeouts on offense, and came up empty on the plays run after each timeout; that is what we called a wasted timeout.

The Patriots not only had all three timeouts to give themselves a chance to get the ball back, but New Orleans threw a late incompletion that allowed the Patriots to bank their last timeout for the final Saints' possession. Without that last critical mistake, the final Patriots drive would have started with 40 fewer seconds on the clock, leaving Brady just 33 seconds to go 70 yards for a touchdown with no timeouts. That would have been ball game.

But the Saints failed to manage the game situation properly, opening the door for Brady to eke out the win.

So where does that leave us? 5-1 is pretty good, a game better than even I thought they'd be at this point. The Jets lost again on Sunday, and the Pats can effectively end New York's chances at a division title with a victory this week. A Patriots win would put the Jets 4 games behind (including tie-breakers), just 7 weeks into the season. So the Patriots should be ready to roll in this one; if only to keep control of their division lead.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Gostkowski's career-long 54-yard field goal was the 9th 50+ yard field goal of his career, setting a new franchise record for number of field goals of 50+ yards. (Trivia question: can you name the previous record-holder in this category, a man who had 8 such kicks -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Win or lose, that was a great game. But always better to win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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The obvious answer is the right one here; Adam Vinatieri had 8 field goals of 50+ yards in his Patriots career.

Patriots Bow To Bengals, 13-6

The Patriots lost to the Cincinnati Bengals yesterday, 13-6, for their first loss of the season. That puts them at 4-1, still in first place in their division, as the Miami Dolphins lost their game to drop to 3-2. Unfortunately, the meat of the schedule begins now, with the red-hot New Orleans Saints coming to town next week.

It's difficult to win in the NFL to start with, but it gets tougher when you give up drive-killing sacks on the first two drives, fumble in enemy territory, throw duck after duck with the game on the line (and drop a bunch of passes, too), and convert only 1 of 11 third-downs.

Welcome to "Growing Pains II: The 2013 New England Patriots." The team decided to replace Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead with oft-injured Danny Amendola, rookies Kenbrell Thompkins/Aaron Dobson, and... well, no one. And when they lost Rob Gronkowski for at least the first five weeks and Aaron Hernandez forever, you knew there would be growing pains.

The offensive line had a very uneven game. The team averaged an impressive 4.6 yards a rush. But even against heavy blitzing, 8 QB hits and 4 sacks (for 31 yards) is too much pressure. And on the first two drives of the game, Nate Solder whiffed on one block and he and Logan Mankins got confused on protection on another, both leading to sacks that stalled the drives.

Quarterback Tom Brady didn't do much to help, holding the ball too long and misfiring on several passes. Sure he was under pressure, but sometimes it makes more sense to throw it away than to get sacked, and he wasn't at his best. He finished the game 18 of 38 (47.3%) for 197 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, and a QB rating of 52.2 (nearing Marc Sanchez territory). He also threw some gawd-awful passes in the rainy fourth quarter, though the game looked to be going Cincy's way by then.

The running backs didn't help much. LeGarrette Blount fumbled when the Patriots were driving for the first score of the game, and the Bengals drove the ball the other way and started the scoring themselves with a field goal. Blount would likely have been benched for the rest of the game, but with only him and Brandon Boldin available, he got a few more snaps after that. The team ended up with 18 carries for 82 yards (and that 4.6 yard average), but that fumble was a killer in a low-scoring game.

And sorry to say the wideouts didn't cover themselves with glory. Amendola was targeted 9 times, but he came up with only 4 catches (for 55 yards), due to his inability to get separation and a few drops. Thompkins' longest catch was 6 yards, and Dobson was Mr. Trick-or-Treat -- with a 53-yarder and another catch for minus-4 yards. And don't start with the drops, too many especially late in the game.

However, there are no growing pains on defense, although there are some injury pains. Linebacker Jerod Mayo's pass coverage is much improved, and he was a beast yesterday, ending up with 11 tackles, 1/2-sack, a QB hit, and a fumble recovery. Brandon Spikes guessed correctly pass/run, but unfortunately overran several plays that went for big yards by the Bengals.

In the secondary, safety Devin McCourty was late on several long passes, but his forced fumble almost saved the game for the Patriots (the offense couldn't cash in). He also lead the team with 12 tackles, and with corner Aqib Talib, was the star of the defensive backfield. Still not much depth there, but if they stay healthy, this will not be a liability this season.

The defensive line is more of a problem. Last week Vince Wilfork went down for the season, and this week Tommy Kelly went out for a few series with a knee problem. If Kelly's injury is serious, that likely leaves the team with a tandem of rookies inside, and when they were in there yesterday, they got pushed off the ball play after play.

The rest of the defensive line did well. Chandler Jones got consistent pressure on the quarterback (and 1/2-sack), and most of the Bengals' successful running plays went up the gut (attacking those rookies), not to the outside. Chris Jones (no relation) tallied 2 sacks and 4 tackles, not bad for a rookie who didn't play much until the second half. And rookie Joe Vellano actually looked okay, until he was paired with another rookie inside, at which point it started to fall apart for them.

On special teams, on one of the bright spots was punter Ryan Allen, who averaged 44.1 yards a kick and pinned the Bengals inside their 20 yard line five times. That is a credit to both him and the coverage team, which did a great job making sure the ball didn't bounce into the end zone.

As for the coaching, it's tough to find fault when your team gives up 13 points. However, it took to long to shore up the offensive line, and the receivers appeared to regress this week. They also could have challenged a late ruling, that Amendola wasn't in the end zone before being tackled, but opted instead to go for a quick play, which was stuffed. Lastly, on that same series, they never went play-action near the goal line (except to try a pass to offensive lineman Solder), which seams like a natural against an aggressive Bengals' defense.

So where does that leave us? Well, 4-1 is good enough for first place in the division, but no time to rest on that achievement. The Saints come marching in next Sunday, and with their talented skill position players, the Patriots can't count on a defensive struggle that they try to pull out at the end. They need Gronkowski back this week, otherwise they are looking at 4-2.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: To underline how much the Patriots offense has changed this year, he Patriots lead the NFL in field goals for only the second time since Stephen Gostkowski arrived. (Trivia Question #1: can you name the other year... answer below.)

Bonus Trivia Question: Gostkowski has lead the Patriots in scoring every year of his career except one. Can you name the year and the player who led the team in scoring that season... answer below

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The offense is a problem, for sure, but if they can't shore up the running defense, they are in big trouble this year."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-1!

PPS. Trivia answers:

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1. The Patriots last led the league in field goals in 2008, the season Tom Brady missed the entire year with a knee injury.

2. Gostkowski was injured and played only eight games in 2010, opening the door for BenJarvus Green-Ellis to lead the team in scoring with 78 points.

Patriots Out-class Buccaneers, 23-3

The Patriots simply out-classed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, spotting them an early 3 points and then scoring the last 23 for a 20-point win.  The victory helped the Patriots keep pace with the 3-0 Dolphins, who beat the Falcons today.  And speaking of the Falcons, the Patriots travel to Atlanta next week to take them on; their first difficult opponent of the season.

This game looked to be in doubt for the first 15 minutes.  The Bucs put together drives of 55 and 51 yards, but missed one field goal so they held only a 3-0 lead.  Meanwhile the Patriots punted after "drives" of 4, 5, and 3 plays each, and their offense looked completely out of sync.  Fortunately Tampa Bay didn't cash in enough of those early opportunities, and when the Pats stopped them on fourth down, Brady drove the team 66 yards for their first touchdown, and then followed it with 62-yard drive for another 7.

At that point, it was game over.  The Bucs had decent plans on offense and defense to start the game.  But once the Patriots made their adjustments, the Buccaneers had nothing to fall back on, and their offensive ineptitude led to more short drives for points by the Patriots.

A great example was the Patriots interception.  Tampa needed to get to the locker room and regroup (they were getting the ball to start the second half).  But QB Josh Freeman made a bad decision and threw the ball right to Aqib Talib with 11 seconds to go int he first half, and the Patriots used two plays to get into field goal range and make it a two-touchdown lead at the half.

The Patriots defense played very well, especially after the first quarter.  Solid pressure by Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones (1 sack, 2 QB hits), with occasional help from Tommy Kelly (0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits).   Vince Wilfork sees almost constant double-teaming, which should free Kelly and the rest to make plays -- and they are making them for sure.

Linebacker Jerod Mayo had a sack and led the team with nine tackles.  And running mate Brandon Spikes continues his excellent run from last year, guessing run/pass correctly about 80% of the time.  He doesn't always make the tackle (though he had seven yesterday), but his instincts (and obvious film study) help him blow up plays before they even get started.  Dont'a Hightower didn't have huge stats, but he holds the edge well against the run, and his pass coverage is probably the best of any Patriots linebacker.

In the secondary, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, and Aqib Talib never let up the pressure on opposing receivers.  They were beaten regularly early in the game, with Arrington actually moving outside for a few series (not sure if Dennard was injured).  But they just kept hitting, pushing, rerouting, and all-around annoying the receivers, until some of them left the game with injuries and others dropped passes because they heard footsteps.  Oh, and all three made nice defensive plays with the ball in the air (again, excepting the first quarter).

And please consider it a compliment to the safeties that there isn't much to say about them.  The Patriots are not giving up long passes, the safeties have only been beaten deep twice all season (both times in the Bills game).  And the run support has been good enough, although that leads to this point...

The run defense remains suspect, giving up at least 4 yards a carry for the third consecutive game, 4.4 this time.  (Trivia question: Who was the Patriots head coach the last time the Pats gave up at least 4 YPC in each of their first three games in a season -- answer below.)  Yesterday it was more yards between the tackles, something that's plagued them to this point.  And frankly, these performances came against teams with subpar quarterbacks, so the Patriots knew all three teams would run the ball a lot.  Yet the run defense got repeatedly gashed on quick traps and inside runs in all three contests.  Not a problem so far, but something to watch as the year goes on.

On offense, the young receivers who took so much heat the last few games got their acts together in this one.  Aaron Dobson: 10 targets, 7 catches, 52 yards, and 5 first downs (including a penalty he drew and a fourth-down conversion).  Kenbrell Thompkins: 7 targets, 3 catches, 41 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a late-game first-down (he also had two drops).  But most important of all, they ran the correct routes and were on the same page as Tom Brady, which is critical to the success of this offense.

Julian Edelman contributed his usual 7 catches for 44 yards, and even Michael Hoomanawaui had 2 for 31 yards.  And after a first quarter where Brady held the ball longer than usual, the offense got in sync and it was the quick-pass attack recognizable to anyone who watches the team on a regular basis.  Brady ended up 25-of-36, 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 92.9 QB rating.  Not stellar, but the offense is still a work in progress.

The running game was actually quite good, making use of all three running backs and their diverse skill sets.  Stevan Ridley (11 rushes for 35 yards) ran most often early in the game, spelled from time to time by the faster Brandon Bolden (3 for 51).  Later in the game, LeGarrette  Blount came in for what looked like mop-up duty, but he got 14 carries for 65 yards (and a long of 23).  A nicely balanced attack, with large holes on some plays and very few runs for a loss.

The offensive line did a passable job.  The early pressure really was more on Brady for holding the ball.  But there were a few miscues up front, with Dan Connolly blowing it one play (and giving up a sack), and some apparent mis-communication on the right side between Connolly and Marcus Cannon (in for Sebastian Vollmer for a few series).  Overall very nice work, but the Bucs proved once again that the Patriots O-line is vulnerable to physical, attacking defensive lines.

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had a great game.  His kickoffs were never returned (and all but one went through the end zone), and he was a perfect 3-3 on field goals, including a career-long-tying 53-yarder to end the first half.  And though punter Ryan Allen's first punt was a shank job, he recovered nicely to have one downed inside the 20 and a 42.7 yard average.

The coaches showed their skills with adjustments in the first half.  The score was only 3-0, but Tampa Bay was dominating play and time of possession.  However, when the Patriots made their adjustments, they scored on five of the next six possessions, and that was ball game.  With Rob Gronkowski likely back next week, it will take some of the pressure off the young receivers (and Edelman).  No telling what they'll do next with the offense.

So where does that leave us?  3-0 and tied for first place in the division, that's where.  The Pats head to Atlanta for a big game next Sunday night.  This will be a much better indicator of where they are at this point.  If Gronkowski returns, look for him and Brady to play very well -- they both do so when the bright lights are on them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  In the last 12 months, Tampa Bay traded Aqib Talib and LeGarrette Blount to the Patriots.  Yesterday Talib got the Patriots lone turnover, and Blount was the Patriots leading rusher.  That has to be an oddity -- when has that ever happened in the NFL?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "Gronk's return couldn't come at a better time.  Now that the warm-up acts are done, let's bring on the real season."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-0!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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20 years ago, in Bill Parcells' first year with the Patriots, the Pats gave up the following numbers in their first three games of the 1993 season:
Buffalo = 42 rushes for 177 yards (4.2)
Detroit = 44 for 186 (4.2)
Seattle = 43 for 209 (4.9)

Patriots Hold On For 13-10 Victory Over Jets

The Patriots got an early touchdown and rode a 10-0 first quarter lead to a 13-10 win.  For the time being, the victory puts them in sole possession of first place in the division, and puts the Jets in sole possession of last place.  Now it's 10 days off to rest and recuperate before taking on the so-far winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Foxboro.

You don't seriously expect an in-depth analysis of this game, do you?  I called Eric Northman to see if he can "glamour" me to make me forget the entire sordid evening.  Here are some thoughts on how the Patriots won, how they could have lost, and where they are after two weeks.

1.  Win the turnover battle 4-0 and you should win by a lot more than 3 points.  But in the end, three Geno Smith INTs and a fumble by receiver Stephen Hill gave the Patriots the win; and it also gave them the ball a lot, so they had a chance to do this...

2.  Go 4-18 on third-down conversions -- which is pathetic, closing in on Rod Rust territory.  Perhaps this was the statistical counterweight to the 4-0 turnover margin, and a lot of it owed to poor second-down performance and dropped balls by young receivers.  Oh, and speaking of that...

3.  Rookie receiver Aaron Dobson dropped almost as many passes as Rex Ryan has pounds.  He combined with Kenbrell Thompkins and James Develin for six catches, and though Thompkins shook off the first-game jitters of last week, he still had some missed routes and confusion between him and Brady.

The only veteran of the group, Julian Edelman, had 13 receptions all by himself, and even when double-teamed he found ways to get open and keep the chains moving.  Not bad for a converted QB.  Oh, and speaking of Edelman...

4.  It's time to have Leon Washington return punts.  Sure, Edelman is very good at it, technically the highest average in NFL history.  But Edelman is just too valuable to the offense, at least until Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola come back from injuries.  If Edelman goes down on a punt return, the passing game would be completely stagnant, so there is no reason to risk him on special teams.  And speaking of special teams...

5.  Is Stephen Gostkowski so fragile that the Pats have to waste a down to put the ball in the middle of the field for him?  At the end of the second quarter, Brady could have taken a shot in the end zone, or tried for a first down or at least to get the ball closer.  But since the ball rested on the right hashmark, and that apparently is Gostkowski's least favorite hashmark, Brady took the snap and knelt in the middle of the field.

And Gostkowski promptly rewarded the team by hooking the ball wide left, keeping the game closer than it should have been.  Gostkowski was supposed to be a veteran you could depend on, but maybe not in a big spot.  And speaking of veterans you could depend on...

6.   Anyone else miss Kyle Love or Brandon Deaderick?  Tommy Kelly is fine, but the lack of defensive line depth leaves him and Vince Wilfork out there for too many snaps.  And in case you haven't noticed, the Patriots are getting gashed on inside running plays this year -- something that rarely happened last year.

They've given up an average of 4.0 yards a carry in both games so far this season, a number they allowed in only one-third of games last year -- 6 of 18, including playoffs.  (Trivia Question: can you name the one team that ran for over 5 yards per carry against the Patriots last year?  Answer below.)  And speaking of the playoffs...

7.  The Patriots as currently constructed are not a team that will do much damage in the playoffs.  Fortunately for them, they don't play much of anyone until week 4, and with 10 days to prepare for Tampa Bay, they should be able to find a way to win that game.  But they need Gronkowski back and Amendola has to stay healthy if the team expects to win anything of consequence this season.  And speaking of winning...

8.  The secondary won most every battle against the Jets.  Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard just won't stop competing; they make the opposing receivers miserable with jams at the line and by always fighting for the ball in the air.  Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory looked very good at safety, and Aqib Talib had two interceptions (Dennard had the other one).  There isn't much depth back there, but for the time being, they were good enough to help you steal this game.  And lastly, speaking of how the game was stolen...

9.  Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, and Dont'a Hightower were in the backfield and all over the Jets QB.  Even when they didn't sack him, they flushed him out of the pocket or made him throw early.  Jones is becoming a beast, and with consistent pressure from his side, Ninkovich is seeing more single-blocking.

The coaches are also employing more stunts and games up front, something they shied away from over the years.  But perhaps with a more seasoned veterans they feel more confident the players will adjust if the stunt is about to backfire.

So where does that leave us?  2-0 is better than any alternate record after two games, so don't worry, be happy.  Ten days off means you have your Sunday free this week, so get out and enjoy what is supposed to be a nice weekend in New England.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady has thrown for 473 yards this season, his lowest total in the first two games of any season since 2006 (383 yards).  His two opponents in the first two games of 2006: the Buffalo Bills followed by the New York Jets.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "I never thought I'd say this, but it's time for the offense to catch up to the defense."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  2-0!
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PPS.  Trivia Answer: the Buffalo Bills ran for 5.79 yards per carry (28 rushes for 162 yards) on November 11, 2012.  (Note: give yourself a half-point if you thought it was the Indianapolis Colts, who averaged just a shade under, at 4.96 yards per carry [24-119].)

Patriots Eke Out 23-21 Victory Over Buffalo

The Patriots kicked a late field goal to escape their turnover-laden performance with a 23-21 win.  The victory puts them in a three-way tie for the division lead.  Next up are the New York Jets, this Thursday night on the NFL Network, with a chance to put themselves a game up on yet another division foe.

The parties most responsible for the Patriots win are not in the employ of Patriots owner Robert Kraft.  First, the Bills had 10 penalties for 75 yards, and there were some absolute killers (big plays called back, second chances given to the Patriots).  And if that wasn't enough, rookie head coach Doug Marrone continued to run the hurry-up offense for two drives when the game situation dictated he should have been running out the clock.

Quarterback play?  Brady a pedestrian 76.4 QB rating and only 55.7% completions, E.J. Manuel 105.5 and 67%.  Turnover battle?  Bills won that 3-2, and points off of turnovers went their way, too, 21-14.  The Patriots tight ends had only one catch and caused one interception.  And the interior defense was gashed by inside runs and short crossing patterns.

And yet, down by four points late in the game, the Patriots drove for two fourth-quarter field goals to win.  And in those drives, Brady was clutch: 10 for 17 for 87 yards, no sacks, and not a single ball put in harm's way.  And breakout star Shane Vereen was the only running back in the entire league to break 100 yards this weekend (ended up with 14 carries for 101 yards, and 7 catches for 58 yards).

The receivers were really a two-headed monster, starting with apparent circus-refugee Danny Amendola and his 10 acrobatic catches for 104 yards.  (Note: Brady put those throws into some tiny, tiny openings.)  And Julian Edelman had 7 grabs for 79 yards, and most importantly, 2 touchdowns.  Without those two, the team would have been in huge trouble.

On the downside, rookie Kenbrell Thompkins looked like a guy in his first NFL game, with several wrong reads and at least two plays where he didn't leave himself enough room to come down in bounds.  And if you expected help from the tight ends, Michael Hoomanawanui had one catch and not much in the way of blocking, and rookie Zack Sudfeld had no receptions and slipped, causing Brady's only interception.

Oh, and before we leave the turnover situation entirely, nice game by Stevan Ridley.  Nine carries, one fumble returned for a touchdown, and another fumble recovered by the Patriots offense.  No wonder Vereen had so many yards, Ridley was on the bench by the second quarter.

One thought on the offensive line; they are very good at run blocking plays outside the guards, but they allowed too much pressure on the quarterback.  Seven quarterback hits and multiple other hurries, along with two sacks; that's too much time for Brady to be on the ground.

On defense, the leading tacklers were mostly linemen and linebackers: Jerod Mayo (15), Rob Ninkovich (8), Tommy Kelly (7), Chandler Jones (6), Dont'a Hightower (4), and Vince Wilfork (4).  So you'd think they stuffed the run and short passing game.  But they were repeatedly gashed by inside runs, and time after time on short crossing passes.

The front seven made enough plays to stop drives (when Bills' penalties didn't), as the Bills averaged only 4.35 plays per drive, and managed just 1 drive of over 10 plays.  But the inside trap blocks sprang their backs multiple times for big yards, and the linebackers were just gawd-awful in short coverage.  Mayo might be a tackling machine, but he is ill-suited for pass coverage, and that will be even more obvious against veteran quarterbacks.

The secondary did an okay job most of the time, but when they blew it, they blew it big time.  One touchdown came when Kyle Arrington missed a jam at the line and the receiver outran him and the safety.  And the other was to a WIDE open receiver in the end zone, and there was some bickering between corner Aqib Talib and safety Steve Gregory after that one.

Arrington's two forced fumbles redeemed the secondary, and with all that's on his plate, Alfonzo Dennard acquitted himself quite well (er... no pun intended).  Steve Gregory led the secondary with nine tackles, and the safeties are sure to be a work in progress until they solidify communication with the cornerbacks.

Rookie punter Ryan Allen had an up-and-down day, botching one pooch punt, but doing a very good job with the holder duties (sometimes on mediocre snaps). And Stephen Gostkowski was absolutely money on the day -- neutralizing the Bills kickoff return game and nailing two clutch field goals in the fourth quarter.

The offensive coaches took too long to switch to the running game, and no fault of theirs, but the passing game needs more diversity.  Amendola/Edelman could become the new Welker/Gronkowski -- and the team needs more targets to more different players if they expect to keep up with better quarterbacks and teams.

So where does that leave us?  1-0 and atop the division, although just one field goal away from being 0-1 and at the bottom.  The Jets won a gift game on Sunday, and having to travel for a Thursday night game makes them a likely loser to the Patriots.  No guarantees this early in the season, with the key injuries facing the Patriots.  But you have to feel good about getting the win last Sunday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots have won their last ten season openers, and in those ten games, they played the Bills three times.  The Pats won those games by a total of five points.

Weekly Water-Cooler Wisdom: "Good enough against Buffalo, but they need at least two more receiver targets."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-0!

PPS.  Sorry, no trivia question this week :(