Couldn't ask for much more folks; 31-28 was too close for comfort, but the Patriots survived a furious comeback to notch the win and keep pace in the AFC East. At 8-2, the Pats are tied with the Jets for first place in the division and the conference, and both teams are in position for decent post-season seeding and could find themselves duking it out for a possible playoff bye.
It was another November to remember, the latest in a series of classic games between two of the best NFL franchises. Since 2003 the Patriots and Colts have played seven regular season games in November, with an average score of Colts 28.86 Patriots 26.14. That's less than a field goal difference per game, and there was only one blowout in the bunch, a 40-21 Colts victory. Take that game out, and the two teams are absolutely dead even -- 27 points each per game in six contests. No wonder the NFL always schedules Pats/Colts during sweeps, they are great theater. (Trivia question: which year since 2003 did the Patriots *not* play their regular season Colts game in November? Answer below.)
The Patriots actually won this game 3-0, which is the interception totals of the Colts and Patriots, respectively. Peyton Manning looked positively human, overthrowing on his first one, miscommunicating with a receiver on the second, and underthrowing the third with the game on the line late in the fourth quarter. He was under pressure all three times, and those turnovers were the difference in the game -- especially given that the Patriots had zero turnovers, only once even putting the ball in jeopardy (a late Tom Brady throw that went through the hands of a Colts defender).
The Patriots defense used a new strategy to slow down the Colts passing game. After the game, media commentators thought the Pats played mostly zone coverage, but the defensive backs revealed that they played mostly man-to-man (about 70% of the time). Turns out the Pats coaches thought it would be easier to use exotic coverage to confuse the Colts receivers than to confuse Manning, so they disguised their coverage specifically to confuse the Colts receivers. And it worked brilliantly, causing at least one INT and several incompletions, and a lot of obvious frustration for Manning and the offense. And of course, the disguise also confused the media; but what else is new :)
The Foxboro Weather god (my friend Al) hoped the Patriots would come out in a 1-6 defense, and he wasn't far off. They started the game with 2 linemen, 4 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs. Vince Wilfork did a fantastic job plugging up the inside and freeing linebackers to stop the run. And they definitely took advantage; Jerod Mayo continuing his NFL ascent with 15 tackles (he leads the league with 120 tackles on the year) and Gary Guyton improving his play markedly. The Colts finished the first half with 9 yards on 10 carries, so it went pretty well. Ron Brace and Gerard Warren also pitched in to hold the line; though none of the three linemen did much to pressure Manning.
The pressure came from the outside; Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich got hits on the Colts QB a few times, but mostly the pressure made Manning move and throw, which usually isn't good enough to stop him. But it was this week, with his receivers confused by coverage. Guyton and Brandon Spikes seem to switch roles from week to week, one having a solid game and the other making guest appearances but playing well when on the field. This week Spikes was the mystery guest -- making only two tackles, but guessing right and making them for little gain (zero yards and one yard).
The biggest problem with the linebackers was the medium-middle passing game. They were repeatedly torched by Colts tight end Jacob Tamme for 7- to 10-yard passes right down the middle, in front of one or two linebackers seemingly happy to tackle Tamme after he got the first down. That mid-range pass gives the 2010 Patriots more trouble than just about anything else, and that means they are vulnerable to teams with enough outside pass-receiving talent to stretch them thin in the middle (i.e. Indy, San Deigo, and the Jets).
The secondary played a primary role in the victory. Three interceptions speak for themselves, and the fact that they confused the Colts receivers speaks volumes about how hard they worked on the game plan. Devin McCourty's INT was a gift, a long Manning throw when the receiver cut the route short. But McCourty made an athletic play to catch it in bounds, and it was a game-changer at the time. James Sanders' INT was a short ball thrown under pressure, and it sealed the game -- not a bad follow up for last week's AFC Defensive Player of the Week.
The third INT was by Brandon Meriweather, who had a nifty return to set up the Patriots first touchdown. But as always with him, he giveth and taketh away. Late in the first half, he took a terrible angle on corner coverage and Reggie Wayne hauled in a touchdown to make it 21-14 at the half, even though the Patriots had pretty much dominated. The best safety combo the Pats have right now is Pat Chung and James Sanders, and Meriweather should think about that long and hard before he rests on his "I was a Pro Bowler last year" laurels. Oh, and if cornerback Kyle Arrington can't cover a receiver, he at least needs to make the tackle after the catch. One or the other please, Mr. Arrington.
On offense, Tom Brady was flawless in the first half; with just two incompletions and a 145.2 rating after 30 minutes. The Pats scored on all three possessions before the break, mixing the run and pass well and keeping the chains moving with yards-after-contact. Must have said "yards after contact" 10 times yesterday, noting that Wes Welker (on his touchdown), Danny Woodhead (on two important first downs), and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (on a dozen or more runs) all made significant yards after the first hit. Woodhead's 36-yard touchdown dash included two broken tackles and great downfield blocking by Deion Branch and Welker. And Green-Ellis' touchdown was just tough inside running and a broken tackle at the goal line.
The Colts apparently didn't want to get beaten by the Pats tight ends, holding them to two catches. But they forgot to stop the run (168 yards, 4.9 yards a carry) and cover the wide receivers. Wes Welker and Deion Branch combined for 12 catches and 128 yards, including 8 for first downs, another first down on a pass-interference penalty, and two more second-and-1 setups. If both continue to produce this well, the Patriots could go a long way this season, given the talent they now have at tight end. Now if Julian Edelman would stop dropping the ball, that would be sort of cool.
Nothing to report on special teams, other than the Patriots not missing any extra points -- woo-hoo!
And as for the coaching; they did a great job confusing the Colts offense and that was enough for a 3-point victory. They bunged up the play-calling a bit in the fourth quarter; but no arguing with the results.
So where does that leave us? Pats will be back at it Thursday afternoon, on the road in Detroit for the early Thanksgiving Day game. The Lions haven't done well this year (2-8) and are down to their third or fourth QB. With the short week and a road game, this might normally be worrisome; but the Lions apparently don't know how to win on Thanksgiving. Even though they play on that day every year, they haven't won since 2003. So sit back and enjoy on Thursday; should be a pleasurable experience if you are a Patriots fan.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots lead the league in scoring, despite being outperformed by their opponents in the following areas: total first downs (235 to 207), third down conversion rate (50.7% to 44.8%), fourth-down conversion rate (77.8% to 62.5%), total yards (3984 to 3394), average yards per play (5.9 to 5.6), and time of possession (33:01 to 28.16).
ALMOST the Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots almost ended the game with no penalties; Tully Banta-Cain's foolish personal foul late in the game was the only blemish.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Colts can't run and can't stop the run... they are going nowhere this year."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 8-2!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots opened the 2004 season on Thursday night against the Colts (September 9). Pats won the game 27-24 (thank you, Vander-shank!).
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