Friday, September 11, 2020

Patriots 2020 Season Preview

Happy September everyone, hope you have been doing well and surviving the end-of-times here on Planet Earth!

It's that time of year; when we distract ourselves from our inevitable slide toward doom by obsessing over millionaires fighting on a 120x53-yard gridiron. In other words, bring on the 2020 NFL regular season 🏈🏈😎

Unlike past years, I have not kept a close eye on the Patriots off-season. Nor have I attended any practices. Nor have I been able to watch any pre-season games. The culprit was COVID-19, which disrupted the world enough to cost me the first one and was the literal cause of the second two.

Given that, I feel uniquely unqualified to assess where the Patriots stand, how the team is put together, how it will do, and where it will finish this season. In fact, I'm the guy who thought Cam Newton might not even make the team; so you'd have to take any predictions with a truckload of salt.

So I'm taking an oft-reported page out of Bill Belichick's books -- I'm treating the first four game of the year like the pre-season. That would make this sort of my like my annual Pre-Season Previews, where I give you some things I'll be watching for in the next four games.

Once I've had a chance to see four contests, assuming they have that many, I'll analyze how I expect the Patriots to do for the remainder of the year.

Fair enough? Yes?

Okay, with that in mind, here we go!

Offense

Departures:

  • QB Tom Brady
  • TE Rob Gronkowski (unretired and traded)
  • T Marcus Cannon (opt-out)
  • RB Brandon Bolden (opt-out)
  • FB James Develin
  • TE Matt LaCosse (opt-out)

Arrivals:

  • QB Cam Newton
  • C David Andrews
  • And a bunch of guys you never heard of

The GOAT is gone, long live the GOAT.

I wouldn't call Cam Newton a replacement for TB12; he's a much different quarterback than Brady. Newton is reportedly healthy and has developed some chemistry with WR Julian Edelman. What he brings is the ability to extend plays with his feet, more running ability, and the motivation of a one-year deal that could net him a nine-figure contract if he plays well.

This "pre-season" I'll be looking for whether the Pats changed their offense to use Newton's talents or if they tried to work Newton into their 2019 offense. If you see more extended plays and deep passes, then this is Newton's offense. If not, it will be business as usual.

It'll also be interesting to see if the Patriots run the ball more. They loaded up with running backs, have a new FB in place, their 2018 starting center returned. With Newton could work read-option into the mix. The Patriots offense passed 58% of the time last year; keep an eye on whether that percentage goes higher or lower.

Defense

Departures:

  • LB Dont'a Hightower (opt-out)
  • LB Kyle Van Noy
  • LB Jamie Collins
  • LB Elandon Roberts
  • DT Danny Shelton
  • S Duron Harmon
  • S Patrick Chung (opt-out)

Arrivals:

  • A bunch of guys you never heard of

It's a tough off-season when your four best linebackers aren't on the roster the next year. Especially when you sometimes only play three or four in an entire game. Ja'Whaun Bentley showed real ability and a good knowledge of the defense -- but that was two years ago, before an injury cost him one season and better players cost him another.

Bentley will wear the green-dot helmet, so he'll be calling the defense. I'll be watching for blown assignments or pre-snap confusion to see if Bentley can handle the pressure.

The Pats defensive strength is clearly their secondary, which ranks among the best in the NFL. Given their weakness and inexperience at linebacker, I wonder if they will play more five- six- or even seven-man backfields during the season. I'll pay attention to the starting lineups each game, checking to see how many defensive backs are on the field to start the game.

Special Teams

Departures:

  • K Stephen Gostkowski
  • K Nick Folk (on the practice squad)
Arrivals
  • None

Does this glaring omission on the Pats depth chart worry anyone else?


My suspicion is that Folk will be promoted from the practice squad to kick field goals until a permanent replacement can be found. However, it would not shock me to see the Patriots go without a field goal kicker in a few 2020 games. Punter Jake Bailey kicked off most of last year and will likely do the same this year. With the running game and Newton's skills, the Pats might just go for two points more often.

Coaching

Departures:

  • Dante Scarnecchia (offensive line)
  • Joe Judge (special teams)

Arrivals:

  • Troy Brown (running backs and kick returners)

There have been some shifting of roles, but no matter what the team does, they'll have a really hard time replacing Dante Scarnecchia. He was a magician with the offensive line. And for two decades, Bill Belichick spent less money and draft capital on the O-line, dedicating those resources to other places, precisely because "Scar" could make chicken salad out of chicken feathers year after year.

The other thing of note is that with Bentley being the defensive signal caller, Jerod Mayo will likely be the de facto defensive coordinator. He seemed to split those chores with safeties coach Steve Belichick in 2019. But now that the green dot will be firmly affixed to a LB's helmet, it should be Mayo.

Summary

This year reminds me a lot of 2001. Lots of new players and tons of free agents in and out all off-season. I suspect Bill Belichick is excited to show his coaching chops once again. And given his history, the team will mostly likely be playing better toward the end of the year.

With the uncertainty and all the new players, don't expect a 4-1 or 7-2 start to the season. But then again, I'm not predicting, right 😂

Biggest On-going Issue: Uncertainty in the kicking game. The team had the entire training camp to make sure the linebackers know the defense and Cam Newton knows the offense. But not having a field goal kicker? They need to fix that soon.

Statistical Oddity: Other than Bill Belichick, only one other current NFL head coach has won more than one Super Bowl as a head coach. Only one. (Trivia question: can you name that head coach? Answer below.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats performance will be one thing that's better in 2020 than it was in 1990." (Credit to Al the Weather God)

Keep the faith and enjoy the beginning of the season!

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:

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Mike Tomlin has two Super Bowl victories. Among current NFL coaches, only he and Belichick have more than one.

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