This game was over before it started because the Patriots coaches out-prepared their counterparts on the other sideline. They correctly assessed the matchups and decided the best ways to attack and defend. Their plans to attack with the running backs, run-blitz to slow down the run and then pressure Carolina QB Sam Darnold, and force the action on special teams where they had both return and coverage advantages -- those worked to perfection.
Defense was the order of the day, especially so in the second half. The Pats gave up nothing in the final 30 minutes, with Carolina punting once, turning it over on downs once, and throwing three interceptions. This second-half dominance has become a growing trend.
In the last three games, the final five opponent drives resulted in these stats: 4 punts, 2 turned over on downs, 6 interceptions, and 1 fumble, and 10 total points scored on them. They lead the league in fourth-quarter scoring differential, more than doubling their opponents scoring in the final frame: 79-35.
J.C. Jackson was the obvious star of the game, with two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. Lineman Devon Godchaux had five, count 'em five tackles from the inside line position (almost unheard of given how the Pats play defense), and rookie Christian Barmore knocked down two passes at the line, one of which would have been an easy Panthers touchdown.
The linebackers were much more active, with Dont'a Hightower having perhaps his best game of the year and Jamie Collins making the most of his 16 snaps with two tackles, a pass knocked down, and a ridiculous interception on a fastball thrown from about 8 feet away.
The offensive execution wasn't perfect. They started the game with offensive penalties, and by day's end they would include five pre-snap, two of which were delay of game. They allowed too much pressure on quarterback Mac Jones, with a few free rushers.
But the running backs dominated Carolina. When the Pats went heavy (with Jakob Johnson at fullback), the Panthers mostly stopped it. However, when they switched to running rookie Rhamondre Stevenson from the spread it was magical. He ended the day with 10 carries for 62 yards and 2 catches for 44 (a stellar average of 8.8 yards per touch). And longtime special teamer Branden Bolden continues to work well in James White's third down role.
The only bad news was that both Stevenson and starting back Damien Harris went out with injuries late.
On special teams, it seemed the Pats saw something during the game. They started with kickoffs out of the end zone. But midway through the first half they started having Jake Bailey take a short run-up and kick it in the field of play, forcing the Panthers to return it. It worked pretty well, with an average return of less than the 25 yards they would have gotten with touchbacks.
I'm not sure if they saw lax play by special teams, maybe some key special teamer got injured, could have been a lot of things. But they saw it and adjusted well. The only downside is they tried the same thing on their own kick returns and got Gunner Olszewski concussed and out of the game. (Here's hoping he is back by next week.)
Kicker Nick Folk has now missed two field goal attempts this year: a 56-yarder in the rain and wind against the Bucs, and a 54-yarder in garbage time yesterday. He leads the NFL in scoring and is in the top 10 in made percentage. It's been quite the career resurrection for Folk, whom the Pats picked up off the street early last season.
As for coaching, it seems the team is hitting its stride. It seems they know who their players are an how to get them in positions to succeed. Their game plans the last four weeks have been excellent from the start of each game. The only concern is the continued issues with pre-snap problems: false starts, too many players on the field, delay of game penalties, and spending timeouts to avoid those last two.
Where does that leave us? Currently the #7 seed in the AFC, the once 2-4 Patriots have played themselves back into post-season contention. Unfortunately early losses to the Dolphins and Buccaneers leave them with little margin for error, and the strongest part of their schedule coming up. But we can all agree that it's way more interesting to have them in the hunt than it was last year when they were out of it after seven games.
Next week against the Browns will be a tough one. The two things that play in New England's favor are that Cleveland had a big emotional win over a division rival and has to go on the road for the second straight week. Doesn't guarantee anything, but gives the Pats a better chance at a game they need to have.
Biggest on-going problem: Injuries to the running backs. The current formula for winning is to run the ball well, play smart on special teams, be disciplined and opportunistic on defense, and take shots in the passing game when it makes sense. If Harris and Stevenson aren't well enough to play at at least 85% that formula takes a hit.
Non-QB MVP: J.C. Jackson, the next cornerback who will leave the Patriots to get a big payday in the off-season :(
Statistical oddity: In four starts against the Patriots, QB Sam Darnold is 0-4, has completed just 52% of his passes, has 1 touchdown pass and 9 interceptions, and a QB rating of 41.2. If you recall, he was the one who "was seeing ghosts" a few years back in a game the Patriots spanked the Jets.
Bonus oddity: ESPN started tracking how QBs do when they are outside the pocket back in 2009. Since then, Darnold is the first quarterback to have zero completions and two interceptions outside the pocket in a game (he was 0-6 with two INTs).
Note: I usually don't use stats from other outlets, but I called this during the game -- see this post from the Your Patriots Facebook page as proof:
Water-cooler wisdom: "2-5 last season and they were done, 2-4 this season and it was just the beginning."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 5-4!
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