Patriots Roar Back To Beat Eagles 38-20

The Patriots scored on multiple long drives to overcome an early deficit and emerge with a 38-20 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The win gives them effectively a three-game lead over their nearest division rivals (three games over Buffalo, two games and a tie-breaker over New York). And they enjoy a psuedo-bye with a "contest" against the absolutely pathetic, 0-11, Manning-less Colts. At home, at 1:00 for a change.

This one didn't look good at first, with a quick 10-0 lead for Philly on two quick-strike scoring drives. The defense was reeling, couldn't make a play, and on the second drive they were lucky to stop Philly for the field goal. But just when the game could have gotten out of hand and the defense needed some rest and time to regroup, the offense stepped up with a 12-play, 70-yard, 6:52 touchdown drive.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Patriots used that time to rest and make adjustments, and Philly scored on only two of their last nine possessions (including a garbage-time touchdown to make the score more respectable). The linebackers and secondary stopped going for play-action fakes, and combined with a Eagles' miscues (ill-timed penalties and dropped passes), the Pats rode a machine-like offense to an easy win.

The defensive line did a credible job up front all day; moving Eagles quarterback Vince Young around in the pocket without giving him too many big running plays. Inside linemen Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love applied pressure up the middle, while Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (and occasionally linebacker Rob Ninkovich) looped around the outside to keep Young in the pocket. Young made them pay with big plays early; but after making the necessary adjustments, the pressure harassed Young enough to knock him off his game.

The linebackers were confused and out of position early on -- biting on play-action fakes and leaving huge gaps in the defense. But once things settled down, they let the Eagles run; and of course, once the Patriots got a big lead, running the ball wasn't going to do it any more. Still without Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton (2 tackles) and special-teamer Tracy White (4) were pressed into service, and it showed. Both let backs and tight ends run away from them, but in their defense (no pun intended), they did battle to stop receivers short of first downs and competed on pass plays when they were close enough.

Ninkovich is blossoming, now that the defensive ends are getting pressure on the quarterbacks. He obviously does well on his first read, so when the opposing QB doesn't have time for a second- or third-read, Ninkovich looks a lot better. Jerod Mayo was uncharacteristically quiet (3 tackles), obviously affected by the active Eagles offensive line and plays that seriously took him into account. Pass coverage is not Mayo's strong suit; and it showed with a couple of coverage problems.

Julian Edelman helped the secondary immeasurably. That's right, the wide receiver -- he had a pressure that caused an incompletion late in the game, made a first-down-saving tackle with the game still in doubt, made a perfect tackle on Vince Young's attempted touchdown scramble, and shut down -- that's right -- shut down Eagles wideout DeSean Jackson. He covered Jackson three times that I saw, and each time Jackson couldn't shake free.

The other defensive backs were pretty good... after the first ten minutes or so. Kyle Arrington got beaten a few times, but had two passes defended and ten tackles. His compete-level is off the charts; I'd hate to play "chicken" with him, because he'd never give in. Antwaun Molden has played 43 NFL games, and he had his second pass defended and his first interception in this one. And the interception came in the second quarter, with the game still very much in doubt.

Bill Belichick said recently that even though the secondary players weren't drafted high and they didn't come from renowned schools, he'd go to battle with them. He stated that they take coaching, do what they are supposed to do, and compete hard on every play, and that is true of the whole crew. They might even help him to a 12-4 record. But even Belichick will feel a lot better if Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty return to the lineup.

On offense, it was another slow start for quarterback Tom Brady. He took some serious hits on the first drive, and the Patriots mixed in an effective running attack after that to slow down the Philadelphia pass rush. The stat sheet lists only one sack and two quarterback hits of Brady, but he got hit at least ten times in this game. However, you have to give the Patriots credit for using the run and the no-huddle to slow down the pass rush.

Brady had three spectacular plays that deserve special mention. On the first one, he made a free blitzer whiff and stepped up, directing Deion Branch down the sideline, and he completed the pass for 63 yards. On the second, he threw a perfect hardball pass to Wes Welker in the flat, and Welker turned quickly to reach out for the touchdown. The third was a perfect pass over the middle to tight end Rob Gronkowski, just after he broke free and just before the safety got in to break up the pass. On the day Brady completed 24 of 34 for 361 yards, 3 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 134.6 passer rating. He also had two scrambles (and two divots).

Welker (8 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Branch (6 for 125) led the receivers, with tight ends Gronkowski (4 for 59 and 1) and Aaron Hernandez (6 for 62) doing their usual "matchup nightmare" thing. Philly is the third team to cover Gronkowski with their best corner (Nnamdi Asomugha in this case), but to no avail. And it looked like Brady could complete a pass to Hernandez whenever he wanted.

Branch and Welker were in total sync with the quarterback, a good thing as the team heads into December. However, a word of caution from someone who's seen this before. Completing passes to only four receivers is not a recipe for playoff success. The running backs and other receivers need to be more involved; because in the post-season, defenses are usually good enough to stop the #1 and sometimes #2 receivers.

Brady was also the second leading rusher, complementing BenJarvus Green-Ellis (14 carries for 44 yards). Danny Woodhead was more involved, and Shane Vereen got into the act late (7 for 18). Overall not a lot of production; but every running play was crucial, because they got enough yardage to keep the Eagles defense honest, and that slowed down the pass rush (which was killing  Brady early on).

The offensive line didn't do very well. Only 2.9 yards a rush, the aforementioned hits on Brady, and Brian Waters had his worst game since joining the team. Waters committed two consecutive holding penalties, he completely missed his man on a sweep, and at least two QB hits that were his fault. He has been rock-solid, so no doubt he'll improve again. One other O-line note: Ryan Wendell is the third player to start at center, and at least his snaps were perfect. 

Special teams didn't break one like last week. But most important of all, they neutralized the Philadelphia punt return game. DeSean Jackson can break one for a touchdown every return, but punter Zoltan Mesko kicked 'em high enough to get two fair catches. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski did miss another field goal -- this time from 39 yards. Something tells me he might be affected by the relative revolving-door at long snapper. The team has had three long snappers in the last three years -- two of them rookies.

The coaching during the week is a bit suspect, because of the slow starts. The Patriots hadn't scored a first-quarter touchdown in five games; and almost didn't score one yesterday. However, the offensive and defensive adjustments were outstanding during the game. Any time you are down 10-0 and then go on a 38-3 run, your coaches did a fine job of fixing what was wrong. 

So where does that leave us? An 8-3 record is good enough for a share of the lead for #1 seed in the AFC. As stated above, the Patriots have what amounts to a three-game lead in the division with five games to play. It isn't really a Bye week against the Colts; but the Patriots should handle them at home next Sunday. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Wide receiver Matthew Slater has one career reception and one career rush... and two fumbles lost. (Trivia question: name the only other non-quarterback on the Patriots 2011 roster with more than with more than one lost fumble... answer below.) 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Everyone said this game wouldn't show us much about the Patriots, but it did show the Pats coaches can out-adjust the best of 'em -- even Andy Reid.  Though it helps to be facing Vince Young."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Longtime Patriots running back Kevin Faulk has lost 16 fumbles in his career, although he does have 1,567 touches.

PPPS.  Note on fumbles: current non-QBs on the Patriots have lost fumbles only 0.65% of the time they ran or received the ball. In 3,683 touches (in a Patriots uniform), they have just 24 fumbles -- here is a list of how it breaks down:
 

Kevin Faulk: 1567 touches, 16 fumbles lost (1%)

Wes Welker: 628, 1 (0.16%) 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 503, 0 (0.0%) 

Deion Branch: 352, 1 (0.28%) 

Danny Woodhead : 210, 1 (0.48%)

Rob Gronkowski: 103, 1 (0.97%)

Julian Edelman: 121, 1 (0.83%)

Aaron Hernandez: 96, 1 (1.04%) 

Stevan Ridley: 50, 0  (0.0%) 

Matthew Slater: 27, 2 (7.41%) 

Shane Vereen: 15, 0 (0.0%)

Chad Ochocinco: 11, 0 (0.0%)

Sort of puts into perspective how disappointing Matthew Slater is.

Patriots Dispatch Chiefs With Ease, 34-3

Most everything looked easy for the Patriots in last night's 34-3 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs. The win gave the Pats a two-game cushion in the division over the reeling Buffalo Bills and slipping New York Jets. Next up is the Eagles in Philadelphia, on a short week that includes extra time off for Thanksgiving. No easy task; but of course, the Eagles have to deal with some of the same distractions, so it should all come out in the wash.

Not a whole lot to report; just about everything that could go right for the Pats did, and just about everything that could go wrong for the Chiefs did. The Chiefs won the first quarter 3-0, and the Patriots won the next three quarters 10-0, 17-0, and 7-0. Sometimes that's the way it goes, especially when your quarterback is starting his first NFL game at age 28.

Quarterback Tom Brady was held in check for most of the first half; getting sacked three times and harassed on many other plays will do that to you. Obviously old friend Romeo Crennel had some surprises for Brady, but once the Patriots figured out the defense, it was game over. The offensive line kept him clean the second half, and he finished with a 109.2 rating and 2 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The running game was a bit of a mixed bag. There were lots of plays that got stuffed; but in the end, it totaled 157 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards per rush). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (20 carries for 81 yards) led the way, while Danny Woodhead (5 for 27) got important yards on inside handoffs, and rookie Shane Vereen (8 for 39 and 1 touchdown) showed some nifty moves and moved the pile on a fourth-down run for a score.

The tight ends starred again among receivers. Aaron Hernandez (4 catches for 44 yards) caught two important passes on the first touchdown drive, and Rob Gronkowski (4 for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns) showed speed and moves on two touchdowns where he tiptoed along the sideline. The rest of the passing game was mostly an afterthought, though it was spread around evenly, which is usually a good sign.

Offensive line play was down in the first 20 minutes and then picked up to give Brady time at the end of the half and for the entire second half. That owed partially to more consistent running plays in the second half; although those also reflect well on the offensive line. Additionally, they did a nice job blocking on screen passes, which haven't gone very well in recent weeks; so that's an area of improvement.

Defensively the plan appeared to be stopping the run and forcing quarterback Tyler Palko, to beat them through the air. He did so on the Chiefs only scoring drive; but after that it was "Bad Palko." Secondary play confused him into holding the ball, which allowed the pressure to get to him, which forced bad throws, which gave the Patriots three interceptions. In other words, Palko couldn't handle the Patriots team defense.

Andre Carter and Mark Anderson brought the heat from the outside line positions, getting 0.5 and 1.5 sacks, respectively. Carter also blew up several running plays and a screen pass before they could get started. And Rob Ninkovich got the third sack of Palko, and also pressured him into his first interception. Note also that the sacks came at critical times, with the Chiefs trying to claw their way back into the game and the defense needing to come up big.

NFL interception leader Kyle Arrington got two of the easiest picks of his career, and unknown corner Phillip Adams got a total gift when Palko thew into quadruple coverage in the end zone.

The kick-return team should have been more ready for the onside kick; though the Chiefs blew it (as they did so much yesterday), so it didn't cost them. The Pats did give up a long punt return, though they got an even longer one back when Julian Edelman zigged and zagged his way through Kansas City for a 72-yard return touchdown.

The coaches made nice adjustments after the first quarter. And they did not get surprised/beaten by a young quarterback, which has often been the case the first time they see one (see Matt Shaub with Atlanta, Chad Henne with Miami, or Ben Roethlisberger with Pittsburgh).

So where does that leave us? A 7-3 record puts them currently atop the AFC, two full games ahead of Buffalo (with one remaining game with them) and essentially three ahead of New york (with tie breakers). The Eagles game will be no picnic; they have an explosive offense (for once you can believe Belichick when he says this), an opportunistic defense, and are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Colts won ten games last year and have zero wins so far this year.  If they go winless, they will tie the record for the biggest single-season decline in wins in NFL history.  (Trivia question: name the team that currently holds that record.  Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots have outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 93-3 in the two games my friend April has attended (last night, and the 59-0 destruction of Tennessee two years ago).  With that track record in mind, please let me know if you want to set up a fund to make sure she attends all future games (or at least playoff games).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I guess there's a reason Palko was starting his first NFL game at age 29."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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The Houston Oilers won 12 games in 1993 and just 2 games in 1994, which is the current "gold standard" for declining wins from one year to the next.  Maybe that's why the team doesn't even exist any more.

Patriots Outclass Jets in 37-16 Win

The Patriots defense (that's right the Patriots defense) dominated and the offense cashed in every opportunity, and the Patriots 37-16 road win re-proved they are the class of the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills lost along with the Jets, and that puts New England a full game up on the Bills and with essentially a two-game lead (with tie-breakers) over the Jets. Next week it's a Monday night tilt with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are fighting for their playoff life in the suddenly competitive AFC West.

The first half of this one was ugly until the last 4:44, when each team "exploded" for long touchdown drives to move the score from 6-2 to 13-9 at the half. But the Pats took over in the second half. They converted three turnovers into 17 points, held the Jets to a mere 7 in the entire half, and rode their impressive defense to a convincing win.

The defensive effort was even more unexpected given who missed the game and who left with injuries. Two rookie free agents started -- Sterling Moore at safety and Jeff Tarpinian at linebacker -- guys so unknown they hadn't even recorded an introduction for the Sunday Night crew. Pat Chung missed the game, which gave them almost no depth at safety, and the Pats had so few linebackers they were forced to go with a 4-3, even with injuries on the defensive line.

However, the defense responded, especially the much maligned pass rush. The defensive line got in the grill of Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez all day long; and no surprise Andre Carter led the way -- with 4.5 sacks (matching his total for the season) and 8 quarterback hits. He was joined at the quarterback by Mark Anderson, and blitzing linebackers and safeties forced Sanchez to throw quicker than he wanted (he completed just 51.2% of his passes)

Carter and Mark Anderson employed things often forbidden by Patriots coaches -- spin moves, twists, and stunts -- to get to the QB.For years the Pats insisted on a controlled pass rush, fearing that surprise running plays would gash them. But it seems to have sunk in that "gap control" just isn't working, and a nod of acknowledgment to the coaching staff for realizing it.  With Carter leading the way, the defensive line was around Sanchez all day long, moving him off his spot and forcing early throws for most of the game. Amazing how much better they played without Albert Haynesworth, who was cut this week.

Another oft-maligned group -- the linebackers -- had a pretty stellar performance, too, especially since only five of them dressed for the game. Rob Ninkovich notched the second two-interception game of his career, returning one for a game-icing touchdown. (Trivia question: name the year and opponent of his first two-INT game; answer below.) The rest of the linebackers didn't have the spectacular game Ninkovich did; but they had the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth most tackles on the night, and held up well enough against the run. They even helped pressure the quarterback, as noted above.

And the secondary... how to describe the desperation in the secondary? How about street free agent James Ihedigbo being the "seasoned veteran" at safety; or maybe Sterling Moore and Ross Ventron moving from the practice squad last Wednesday and Saturday (respectively) and playing significant time; or injuries forcing wide receiver Julian Edelman to play cornerback at the end of the game.

Under the circumstances, they held up pretty well. The Jets got just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and at least two of the sacks and a few Sanchez scrambles were caused by good downfield coverage. Part of the credit goes to the coaches, who did a great job mixing blitzes and eight-man drops, confusing the Jets for just that extra moment the defense needed. 

The offense started slowly in the first half. Quarterback Tom Brady led them on two 50+ yard drives, hitting Chad OchoFinallyShowed on each one -- but both drives stalled and the Pats got just two field goals. But after the Jets scored to take a 9-6 lead, Brady drove right down the field for an answering touchdown. The Jets field the best pass defense by far (giving up an aggregate QB rating of 59.4), but Brady torched them in the second half, and ended the game 26 of 39 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, and a 118.4 rating.

Brady's favorite receiver was tight end Rob Gronkowski... and frankly, he'd be mine, too. His 6' 7" frame, great hands, and great routes make him a devastating matchup problem. He caught 8 passes for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns -- even all-world corner Darrelle Revis couldn't stop him. Wes Welker hae the quietest 6 catches (for 46 yards) of the year, and Chad Ochocinco finally contributed with two long receptions (for 65 yards).

The passes were distributed a lot more evenly this game, which is important going forward. With no legitimate deep threat, the Patriots can't let other teams key on one or two receivers -- i.e. Welker and Gronkowski. So it's encouraging to see Deion Branch grab 5 catches for 58 yards and an important touchdown, and Aaron Hernandez get 4 for 41 yards. 

Running back Danny Woodhead led the running game with 38 yards on 7 rushes. Other than that, not much to speak of, except for a clean Tom Brady; a credit to blocking backs, tight ends, and of course, the offensive line. It wasn't pretty -- there were injuries there, too -- but the line kept the quarterback upright, no sacks given up and no passes batted at the line of scrimmage. Center Dan Connolly blew a shotgun snap (tossing the ball to a very surprised Brady); but all-in-all not bad for a game with as much crowd noise complex blitzing as this one. 

Special teams had an up-and-down day; pouncing on a fumbled punt ("up") and giving up a few too many yards on kickoff returns ("down"). However, Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, while his counterpart missed a 24 yard attempt on the Jets first drive. Gostkowski probably empathized with Nick Folk on that play -- he missed a 27 yard kick last week.

And big ups to the Patriots coaching staff this week. They cut malcontent Haynesworth, trucked in secondary guys from nowhere and made it work, diversified the passing offense enough to put up 37 against one of the better defenses in the league, and even got Ochochino involved in the offense. 

So where does that leave us? 6-3 and on top of the division -- it has a familiar ring but it is a good ring. Buffalo appears to be fading, the Jets are now two-games behind the Pats (including tie-breakers), and the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league. Their run for the playoffs begins next week, against a Chiefs team that might be missing its quarterback (Matt Cassel apparently had a cast on his throwing hand as he left the stadium today). In other words... for the moment, life is good. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Believe it or not, the Jets and Patriots are giving up the exact same number of points per game this season (22.2). 

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In four games against the Patriots this year, teams from New York (Jets twice, Giants, and Bills) scored an average of 6.5 points in the first half. But the Patriots are only 2-2 in those games. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I think Bart Scott's the one with the nosebleed now!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Rob Ninkovich had two interceptions in the Patriots 41-14 victory at Miami last year (October 4, 2010).

Giants Get Last Laugh in 24-20 Win

The Patriots couldn't cash in first half opportunities, and let a late lead slip through their fingers, ultimately losing to 24-20 on a very late Giants touchdown. Their 5-3 record puts them in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East, and they are on a two-game losing streak for the first time in two years. Next up is the other entry from NYC, the 5-3 Jets in New York. Should be a barn-burner.


It might be time to face a sad fact about the Pats -- they might be one of the many 50-50 teams in the NFL. Those are teams that beat up on bad teams, but when they get in close contests with good teams, they are no better than a 50-50 shot to win. They used to close out games like that with regularity; but their last four games that fit the bill and they are 2-2. The 2003 and 2004 seasons seem like a long time ago.


Even though the first half featured exactly zero points by both teams combined, it was really where the Patriots lost the game. The offense had no flow or tempo, and their best chances to take a lead were a 54-yard drive that ended in a Tom Brady interception and an 83-yard drive that ended with a missed 27-yard field goal. In a game where points were at such a premium, six or ten points would have made a huge difference.


Brady didn't help matters much when the Patriots got the ball to start the second half, throwing an interception on the first drive. He fumbled on the next possession, but the fault there lies with the offensive line. On the day, Brady was a very pedestrian 28 of 49 for 342 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was harassed by the Giants pass rush much of the day, and looked confused and frustrated as New York alternated blitzes with eight-man drops and tight man-to-man with zone and zone-blitz.


The offensive line was just as confused, and probably just as often beaten physically. The official statistics only list three quarterback hits, but it seemed like Brady was throwing just before a big hit about one-third of the dropbacks. They also let up two sacks and the pressure led to both interceptions (and of course to the fumble). They did block for a running game that got 4.4 yards a carry, and they get credit for that, so it wasn't all bad.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis led the running backs with 12 carries for 52 yards. It wasn't all pretty; but he made some nice moves, especially hopping over defenders twice to get first downs on third-and-short. Both Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead looked pretty effective in the passing game, too, and it's a mystery why they weren't featured more, especially given the Giants success at shutting down the main pass receivers.


And speaking of receivers, it is really the Wes Welker (9 catches for 136 yards) and Rob Gronkowski (8 for 101 and 1 touchdown) show at this point. Deion Branch (2 for 21) can't seem to beat single coverage, and Aaron Hernandez (4 for 35) appears to be struggling to get back to full speed after his knee injury. And don't get me started on Chad OchoNoShow (credit for the nickname to Allan "The Foxboro Weather God") -- why they bothered targeting him five times is beyond me. Taylor Price was out with an injury; maybe they thought Ocho would provide something of a deep threat. As usual this season, they were disappointed.


The defense played well enough to expect a win. People will probably focus on the last two drives (that both ended in touchdowns) because... well, because they can't bring themselves to blame Brady and the offense. But the defense pitched a first half shutout without benefit of a turnover, held the Giants scoreless on 9 of 13 possessions, got a key interception when New York was about to take a two-score lead, and held the Giants to 29% on third down conversions. A wasted effort; but even with the 24 points given up, this loss is not on the defense.


The defensive line received an unexpected boost from the return of Brandon Deaderick (#71 on your scorecard). He played at least half the time and did a very good job collapsing the pocket on Giants QB Eli Manning. In fact, he, Andre Carter, and Vince Wilfork did a decent job moving Manning off the spot, and they hit him a lot after the pass. Carter gets more and more double-teams, and even Rob Ninkovich got in the act with some QB pressure. Unfortunately no sacks on the day; but they had him on the run like they should have. And they were also instrumental in holding the vaunted Giants running game to 3.8 yards a carry.


Even with Ninkovich's improved play, the linebackers are a real problem. The issue of depth was never addressed in the off-season, and it's coming home to roost now. Jerod Mayo is back and he played okay yesterday, though he's obviously not 100%. Brandon Spikes actually lived up to his billing, making tackles and forcing action with well-timed blitzes. But after that, there's no one to take up the slack.  Spikes was injured in the second half, and the Giants feasted on Gary Guyton in coverage. And when Guyton went down too, special teamer Tracy White gave up the final touchdown.


This area of the defense was thin to start with, and injuries have made it a real problem. It's probably not premature to call Mayo injury-prone (though he is a fast healer). Spikes is a legitimate starter but Guyton and Ninkovich are limited in pass coverage. Meanwhile, OLBs Jermaine Cunningham and Mark Anderson are mostly pass-rush specialists, and Cunningham hasn't been seen much this year. It is very difficult to put together a good defense with one unit this undermanned.


And speaking of undermanned, how about that secondary. Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington are actually holding their own these days, both improving from earlier in the year (not that there was anywhere to go but up). But Arrington is feast or famine, getting a key interception to keep the game within reach and then giving up a 35-yard penalty and a touchdown two drives later. And it is not helping that journeymen Phillip Adams and Sergio Brown are out there -- both gave up plays in the Giants furious fourth quarter.


The safety position would look a lot better with James Sanders next to Patrick Chung. But the team cut Sanders just before they cut another 2010 starter, Brandon Meriweather. If their backup plan was Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo, and Josh Barrett, then the braintrust over there needs to have its collective head examined. The team could get away with one bad unit, but both the linebackers and secondary need serious help. And it doesn't appear that help is on the way.


Special teams could have played better, and pretty easily. If Gostkowski hit his 27-yard field goal or if Julian Edelman didn't fumble on a punt return, the Pats might have snuck out of town with a win. But in a game this close, you can't have simple, correctable mistakes like that. The Patriots did, and it cost them.


As for the coaching, where were the screen passes or draw plays to slow down the pass rush? Why not throw to running backs over the middle, at least until the Giants stopped it? After the first hideous pass route by OchoNoShow, why throw his way four more times? In the first half, you had a fourth-and-one and a fourth-and-two -- why not just admit that you don't have a fake punt in the playbook?


So where does that leave us? 5-3 is on pace for 10-6 -- which was the Giants regular-season record the year they beat us in the Super Bowl. So that's cause for hope, right? Well, maybe not. In any event, the suddenly formidable Jets are up next, as the Patriots try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since... can you name the year, and perhaps even the teams? (Answer below.)


Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last three games, Tom Brady led the team to 20 points or fewer. The last time that happened was weeks 6 - 8 of the 2003 season.  Note: the Patriots won all three games in 2003.


Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the blueprint is closer than ever; play tight man-coverage and redirect receivers at the line. Time for the geniuses at Patriots Place to make some adjustments."


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS.  5-3!


PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost four straight games in 2002: 21-14 to San Diego, 26-13 to Miami, 28-10 to Green Bay, and 24-16 to Denver.

Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

It was bound to happen eventually, and yesterday it did -- he Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to beat Tom Brady.  The Steelers notched a convincing 25-17 win and in the process vaulted to the head of the AFC pack with six wins.  The loss set the Patriots back to 5-2 and into a tie with the victorious Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.  The 5-2 New York Giants come to town next week, so things don't look like they are getting much easier.

There is a lot to tell about this game; but frankly not much about the Patriots, who had too many defensive breakdowns to mention and did virtually nothing on offense except for one long drive.  So not as much detail on specific players this week, but more about how the Steelers changed their stripes to deliver a decisive win.

The Pittsburgh Offense had been inflexible over the years.  They would often try to establish physical dominance rather than adjust schemes that weren't working.  But not yesterday.  With improved deep threats at wide receiver, they spread out the Patriots defense to force match- ups and they took what the defense gave them.

Ask tight end Heath Miller about the results, if he ever comes back down from cloud nine.  Miller caught 7 passes for 85 yards, both career highs against the Patriots.  He repeatedly gashed them right down the middle, and he totaled five first downs (four on the first drive) and forced defensive adjustments that allowed his team to complete long throws to wide open receivers.

Give the Steelers offensive coaching staff credit for changing an old system that did not work.  They had five drives of 10+ plays each and held the ball for 39:22 (almost two-thirds of the game).  And they caused almost as much confusion and as many mental mistakes as the Saints did in their 2009 embarrassment of the Patriots, and that game had an epic series of breakdowns.

The Steelers defense used to play almost exclusively zone against the Patriots, and they would hold off blitzing until they had the Pats in stressful down-and-distance situations.  And predictably, Tom Brady would shred them with short gains that kept the chains moving and sustained drives.

But in yesterday's game, the Steelers unveiled something that appeared to take a page from Buddy Ryan's old "46" defense.  It's been years since I saw 10 men across the line of scrimmage that often; and though the Steelers didn't blitz as much as Ryan did from the formation, they slowed down and redirected receivers at the line to disrupt pass patterns.

The plan worked beautifully.  Even though Brady completed 68.5% of his passes, he was sacked three times and threw for just 198 yards.  And perhaps most important, the Patriots couldn't sustain drives.  Their only first-half touchdown was 2 play, 8 yard "drive."  They somehow had a drive with 9 plays and only 11 yards gained.  And their only sustained drive in the first half ended with a field goal.  And when they came out in the second half, with a chance to tie the game, they went three-and-out.

And in a stunning development, the Steelers special teams actually outplayed the Patriots.  They had better kickoff returns (averaging 27 yards to 18.5) and hit 75% of their field goals to the Patriots 50%.

As for the Patriots, there is mostly blame everywhere, but there were a few bright spots.  Kevin Faulk returned from a devastating 2010 knee injury, and he started and played well (though I suspect he missed a blitzer late in the game -- Brady stopped over for a chat with Faulk after the play).  Rob Gronkowski continues to impress, and safety Sergio Brown made one or two nice plays.

Jerod Mayo got back on the field, and looked a little rusty, even though he's a marked improvement over Gary Guyton (interception notwithstanding).  Andre Carter is becoming their one pass rushing threat -- he had two sacks and a QB hit on Sunday.  And even though their names are rarely on people's lips, both Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork do great work inside.  Still little pressure on the QB (though each got a sack yesterday), but it is tough to run through that middle.

One other encouraging note is how many times Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to hold the ball beyond his initial reads.  Three of the sacks were caused by great coverage, and Roethlisberger often had to pull the ball back down and look for a different receiver.  So maybe the secondary can make a play or two -- though this in no way absolves them from their  multiple breakdowns.  But if there's hope for the season, it lies in the current players improving.  And some of them are showing that improvement -- now they need consistency.

Also note that with all that went wrong, this was still a winnable game.  Pittsburgh got a late first down by half-a-football, and the Patriots could have saved another minute on the clock if they'd challenged an incorrect call on a Rob Gronkowski touchdown.  So all is not lost; at least not yet.  But the NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Giants are sure to try the same plan when they come to town next week.  Time to start working on some answers.

So where does that leave us?  5-2 isn't bad, but with the Jets and Bills playing well, it is getting crowded in the AFC East.  The Giants have the defensive front to give the Patriots trouble; but bear in mind that New York barely (and I mean barely) beat the awful Miami Dolphins yesterday.  So even at 5-2, the Giants might not pose the threat one would expect.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Buffalo Bills have only four shutouts against NFC opponents in franchise history.  The "oddity" part is that all the shutouts have come when the date has doubles at the end of the year.  They shut out an NFC team in 1977, 1988, 1999, and 2011.  (Big... BIG props to anyone who can name the teams without looking -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like the Steelers are finally sick of Tom Brady kicking sand in their face."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Atlanta Falcons in 1977 (3-0), Green Bay Packers in 1988 (28-0), Philadelphia Eagles in 1999 (26-0), and Washington in 2011 (23-0).

New Look Steelers Could Finally Give Patriots Trouble

At first glance, Patriots versus Steelers looks like an exercise in frustration for Pittsburgh.  The games are often close, but since Pittsburgh beat the Patriots on Halloween 2004, they are 1-4 versus New England, the only win coming over the Matt Cassel-led team in 2008.

However, the Steelers are writing a new script this year, and the Patriots defense is in transition at just the wrong time.  So past patterns might not have as much play this Sunday.  Here are three reasons the match-up is intriguing.

1.  Mismatch for Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace versus the Patriots secondary.

The Steelers haven’t really been a run-first team since 2005, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s second season.  But their passing game has mostly been short to mid-range throws, with occassional long bombs on plays extended by Roethlisberger.  Without a significant deep threat, the Patriots regularly put extra men near the line of scrimmage, making it tougher for the Steelers to run or pass.

However, this year Pittsburgh sports a real deep threat in wide receiver Mike Wallace.  His yards per game are up about 33%, from 78.6 last year to 104.3 this season, and he scored the two longest touchdowns of his career (81 and 95 yards) in the first seven games.  Wallace always averaged about 20 yards a catch, but his increased yardage and quick-strike touchdowns -- coupled with Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays -- have opposing teams defending the entire field for a change.

Additionally, the Patriots secondary remains a real problem.  Inexperience at safety has caused communication breakdowns and easy completions and touchdowns.  The team waived cornerback Leigh Bodden during the bye week, leaving scrappy Kyle Arrington and slumping Devin McCourty to cover against outside receivers.  All of which means the Patriots will either double-team Wallace (and leave other receivers open) or take their chances with single coverage (and risk big plays).

2.  Mismatch for New England: Tom Brady versus the Steelers defense.

This mismatch isn’t theoretical (like the first one); Patriots quarterback Tom Brady feasts on the Steelers defense.  For years Pittsburgh has played sound fundamentals and didn’t change the defense much from week to week.  They just played their system extremely well, and the results have been excellent.

Unfortunately for them, Brady exploits holes in their zone coverage, and he is outstanding at reading the blitz and completing passes before it gets to him.  So playing the same defense against Brady doesn’t work.  Need statistical proof... Brady’s QB rating the last four games against the Steelers are as follows: 130.5, 92.7, 125.2, and 117.4 -- gaudy numbers against a one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The other trend working against Pittsburgh is that Brady threw three interceptions in one of those games, and zero in the other three games combined.  The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday, and that means confusing and hitting Tom Brady -- which they haven’t done lately.

3.  Something has to give: Patriots post-bye offense versus Pittsburgh’s first quarter defense.

After a bye week, the Patriots offense used to be awful to begin the next game.  In the first six years under Bill Belichick, they averaged less than a field goal (2.72 points) in the first quarter of games after a bye.  Something needed to change, and it did; in the last five years they are much improved, averaging 9.13 points in the first quarter of post-bye games.

Then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up an average of just 3.42 points in the first quarter this year -- and a microscopic average of 1.67 points in the first quarter over the last six weeks.  Clearly one of these trends has to give, and the team that continues its trend will have a leg up in going for the win.

Also note that the Patriots are very likely to be kicking off to start the game.  They always defer if they win the toss, and if Pittsburgh wins, they are likely to want the ball first to keep the Patriots offense off the field.  This factor plays in the Steelers’ favor as far as the first-quarter scoring trend goes. 

Ochocinco Just Doesn't Matter

Last week was the bye in New England, and that gave Patriots fans and media a chance to digest the season so far, spotting trends and areas of both encouragement and concern.  One name that came up repeatedly in articles and over the airwaves was Chad Ochocinco.  Some people advised more patience with the wide receiver and others called for him to be benched or cut outright.

What all the talk missed is that there simply isn’t any reason to bother talking about Ochocinco.  For all of the buzz surrounding his arrival this summer, not only has he not panned out, there is little reason to think he will.  And in retrospect there is almost no reason to think he could have made much of a difference in the first place.

Here are five reasons Ochocinco isn’t worth your time and energy.

Reason #1:  He averages a pathetic 1.5 catches for 15 yards a game.  In other words, he represents less than five per cent of the passing offense on a team that averages 26.7 completions for 350.5 yards a game.

Three points that put Ochocinco’s 2011 totals -- 9 catches for 136 yards -- in perspective:  First, Ochocinco himself topped those numbers 11 times in single games prior to joining the Patriots.  Second, Wes Welker had more yards in three games already this season.  And on the 2011 Patriots, Ochocinco joins three running backs and two part-time receivers as the only players on the entire team with fewer than ten catches for the year.

Reason #2:  Even with a non-functional/dysfunctional Ochocinco, New England is among the league leaders in every passing category. Tom Brady and company lead the league with 350.5 passing yards a game, and are second in yards per pass (9.1) and passer rating (104.8).  And overall the offense leads the NFL with 27 first downs a game, has three 90+ yard touchdown drives, and is fourth in points per game with 30.8.

Contributions from Ochocinco might help, but the team is thriving without him.

Reason #3:  Under the best of possible circumstances, Ochocinco would only have been only a modest improvement over Deion Branch.  The local media and many fans went overboard when Ochocinco was brought in, hailing the trade as another genius move by head coach Bill Belichick.  But the reality is that Ochocinco is nowhere near the deep threat he was a few years ago.  And even if he picked up the offense immediately, he would have been only a marginal improvement over Deion Branch.

At this point in Ochocinco’s career, he is a precise route-runner with the strength and grit to out-muscle corners at the line of scrimmage and compete for the ball on close plays.  In other words, he is a slightly taller, slightly stronger, much better tweeting version of Branch.  All Ochocinco lacks is knowledge of the playbook and the trust of Tom Brady.  And at this point it looks like he will lack those things for his entire, one-year Patriots career.

Reason #4:  The Cold, Hard Football Facts have shown that you don’t need a big-name wide receiver to win in the NFL.  Their comparison of big-name receivers to shiny hood ornaments (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/Archive_3360_Moss:_another_shiny_hood_ornament_wide_receiver.html) that look good but don’t add much to winning has been borne out time and again.

Big-name receivers like Ochocinco usually demand more throws their way, even if it’s only the subtle psychological pressure to use their talents as much as possible.  They also often complain in the press (though Ochocinco hasn’t yet), can be divisive in the locker room, and unfortunately, can be neutralized in the biggest games by playoff-caliber defenses that focus on taking them away.

It doesn’t necessarily hurt to have a great receiver (that Jerry Rice guy did okay in the post-season).  But there are about 50 pieces of the championship puzzle more important than the big-name receiver.  And Patriots fans should know that better than most -- all three of their Super Bowl victories came without one.

Reason #5:  His $6 million salary is already spent, so there’s no use crying about it.  Some have argued that since the Patriots spent a lot of money on Ochocinco they have to get something out of him.  That is nonsense.

Almost every year there is virtual All Star team of big money free agents who never pan out with their new team.  Between injuries, the inability to learn new systems, position changes, lack of motivation after signing big contracts, locker room friction, and coaching conflicts, there are myriad reasons why free agents sometimes just don’t work out.

Only a foolish team wastes valuable playing time and coaching energy on players just because the team paid them a lot of money.  How much money the Patriots paid Ochocinco is irrelevant to the current situation -- the $6 million is now guaranteed so there’s no point in worrying about it.

If the Patriots think Ochocinco is making progress (and there is evidence he is), then they should continue to work with him.  But how much money he makes should have no bearing on playing time or how often they target him in the passing game.

So there you have it, five good reasons you don’t need to worry about Chad Ochocinco.  Maybe one of these weeks he will have a breakout game and start tweeting up interest again.  But until then, concentrate your energy on the improved Patriots defense and running game, or bemoan the problems at safety or the lack of depth on the offensive line.  But Ochocinco shouldn’t occupy much of your time.